Is Hakeem Nicks Overvalued by NFL Fantasy Football Owners?

Hakeem Nicks had a solid rookie season for the Giants last year. He caught 47 passes for 790 yards (16.8 ypc) and 6 touchdowns. He had 411 yards after the catch, which is an impressive number given his relatively few receptions. He is big at 6’0″, 215 lbs with good speed, making him difficult to bring down. He should turn in another solid season, but are people drinking a little too much of the Giants Kool-Aid?

Nicks has an ADP of 53 (19th wide receiver) according to Mock Draft Central. I have him as my 24th receiver, but I wouldn’t be comfortable taking him quite so early. I prefer the likes of Dwyane Bowe, Percy Harvin, Vernon Davis, Jermichael Finley, Pierre Garcon, and others that have lower ADPs. If Nicks is on my team, it will be as a WR3. I don’t see that happening based on this scenario.

It’s not that I dislike him, but I am going to temper my expectations. I am predicting 65 catches for 950 yards and 6 touchdowns. Not bad numbers, but not numbers you expect out of the fifth pick of the fifth round in fantasy drafts either. Not unless they are coming from a tight end.

The problem is the Giants have a lot of options in the passing game. Steve Smith is the clear No. 1. Mario Manningham figures to see at least as many targets as Nicks. Kevin Boss and Ahmad Bradshaw, provided they can stay healthy, should also have decent roles in the passing attack.

I’m also expecting a more balanced attack this year. The Giants attempted 542 passes to just 443 running plays. I would expect fewer attempts from Manning and more carries from Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. Andre Brown, if he can recover from his Achilles injury, could formulate the three-head monster the Giants used with great success in 2008.

If the Giants are running more and passing less, it stands to reason the G-men receivers will suffer, especially considering how many quality options they have. Throw in his injury history from last year, and I just can’t trust him quite at 53.

What are your thoughts on Hakeem Nicks?

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