UFC 117 Preliminary Card: Preview and Predictions

Dustin Hazelett vs. Rick Story

The Hype: Dustin Hazelett and Rick Story are two young, promising UFC welterweights. The winner of this fight is likely to earn themselves a long career with the UFC and a step up in competition for their next fight.

Hazelett enters this fight after being knocked out by Paul Daley at UFC 108. The loss marked Hazelett’s second failed opportunity to reach contender status. A

 Josh Koscheck TKO at UFC 82 also stifled Hazelett’s run to the top.

After winning his last two fights against Nick Osipczak and Jesse Lennox by split decision, Rick Story will try for a more decisive victory over Hazelett. Story got off to a rough start in the UFC when he lost his debut to John Hathaway. That loss doesn’t look nearly as bad now that Hathaway defeated Diego Sanchez.

Hazelett’s Keys to Victory:

-Pull guard

-Submissions off back

-No exchanges

Story’s Keys to Victory:

-Keep the fight standing

-Finish the fight

-Submission defense on top

The Fight: Against comparable competition, Story might be the better fighter. However, stylistically, this fight favors Hazelett. Story is a wrestler that hasn’t fought anyone near Hazelett’s level of jiu-jitsu.

In addition, Story’s failure to finish fights could leave him in some dangerous predicaments against his black belt opponent. Although it will be against Story’s nature, he may be better off standing with Hazelett. After all, Hazelett’s weakness is clearly in his stand-up game.

If Story does decide to stand, Hazelett should attempt to pull guard. Story’s minimal threat of finishing the fight on the ground would give Hazelett the opportunity to relax and wait for Story to make a mistake.

The Finish: Dustin Hazelett def. Rick Story by submission (Armbar) in the second round.

Phil Davis vs. Rodney Wallace

The Hype: Wallace was originally scheduled to face UFC newcomer Stanislov Nedkov. However, Wallace will now face Phil Davis after an injury forced Nedkov’s UFC debut to be delayed.

Despite winning Fight of the Night honors in his last appearance, Wallace, who has lost each of his two fights in the UFC, could be in danger of being cut. If that is the case, the UFC appears to be setting him up for failure by pitting him against Phil Davis.

Davis, one of the many exciting young talents in the UFC’s light heavyweight division, took this fight on short notice. However, with a dominating win over Brian Stann, a common opponent who defeated Wallace, that shouldn’t really matter much.

A win wouldn’t do a whole lot to advance Davis in the rankings, but the young grappling ace will gain valuable experience by staying active.

Davis’ Keys to Victory:

-Don’t risk standing

-Takedowns

-Takedown defense

Wallace’s Keys to Victory:

-Takedown defense

-Hope for a slugfest

-Ground and pound

The Fight: A four time All American at Penn State University, Davis has the wrestling ability to keep this entire fight on the ground. As long as he decides to do so, and we haven’t seen any evidence from his previous fight to suggest he wouldn’t, Davis should have no problem adding another dominating decision victory to his record.

Since it is unlikely that Davis will be willing to stand, Wallace’s best chance to win the fight is to take Davis down before Davis attempts to take him down.

 That will be no easy task, but Wallace has the brute strength to make it happen.

That being said, it is pretty obvious that the UFC offered Davis this fight as an opportunity for him to showcase his skills. He is the much more talented fighter, and it will show for fifteen minutes of dominance.

The Finish: Phil Davis def. Rodney Wallace by unanimous decision.

Tim Boetsch vs. Todd Brown

The Hype: After a questionable cut in early 2009, Tim Boetsch will return to the octagon to face Todd Brown. Boetsch was cut following a decision loss to Jason Brilz, a cut that appears even more unwarranted after the impressive performance Brilz had against Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.

Boetsch was originally expected to fight Thiago Silva in a fight that would have been a huge, albeit unlikely, opportunity for “The Barbarian” to show the UFC they dropped the ball by cutting him. Instead, Silva was forced to withdraw from the fight because of an ongoing back injury.

Todd Brown will make his UFC debut at the age of 38 after posting a record of 11-1, 1 NC in various smaller promotions.

Boetsch’s Keys to Victory:

-Keep the fight standing

-Quick finish

-Conditioning

Browns’s Keys to Victory:

-Take advantage of Boetsch’s aggression

-Submissions off back

-Takedowns

The Fight: With experience against UFC veterans Matt Hamill, Jason Brilz, and Vladimir Matyushenko, Tim Boetsch will be a heavy favorite heading into this bout. However, Boetsch has showed a lack of conditioning in some of his previous fights that he was unable to finish quickly.

Despite Brown’s background in boxing, Boetsch’s power and experience give him the advantage on his feet. Boetsch also has the ability to take Brown to the mat at will, but Brown’s six submission victory suggest that Boetsch might be better off keeping the fight standing.

Boetsch’s conditioning problems may be a result of his overaggressive approach. Not only does this leave “The Barbarian” open against counter punchers, but it leaves him exhausted if he is unable to finish the fight quickly. If Brown can survive Boetsch’s early onslaught, his odds of winning this fight will increase dramatically.

However, Brown is not exactly a conservative fighter either. Stylistically, all signs point to a quick, easy victory in Boetsch’s return to the UFC.

The Finish: Tim Boetsch def. Todd Brown by TKO (Punches) in the first round.

Johny Hendricks vs. Charlie Brenneman

The Hype: After an impressive TKO win over Amir Sadollah, Johny Hendricks has quietly put together two more victories to increase his undefeated record to 8-0. Still waiting for the step up in competition that many see as inevitable, Hendricks will now fight Charlie Brenneman.

Brenneman defeated Jason High by unanimous decision in his UFC debut. After the win improved his record to 11-1, Brenneman voiced his desire to avenge his only loss, a unanimous decision defeat against John Howard in 2008. In order to receive his opportunity at retribution, Brenneman will likely need a victory against Hendricks.

These two fighters have backgrounds heavily rooted in wrestling. Hendricks was a two-time NCAA Division I champion with Oklahoma State University. Meanwhile, Brenneman was a stand-out at Lock Haven University. With both fighters having such similar styles and Hendricks having the much more impressive amateur wrestling career, it is easy to figure out why Brenneman is the underdog in this fight.

Hendricks’ Keys to Victory:

-Turn the fight into a wrestling match

-Takedown defense

-Be conservative in stand-up

Brenneman’s Keys to Victory:

-Takedown defense

-Ground and pound

-Work for the finish

The Fight: A stand-up brawl between these two fighters would be a very even match-up. Hendricks, the better wrestler, isn’t likely to let that happen. Still, Brenneman has the ability to ground Hendricks if the opportunity presents itself.

Remove striking from the equation and there is virtually no chance for Brenneman to beat Hendricks. Therefore, Hendricks’ objective should be to fight smart on his feet and stay away from exchanges with Brenneman. If successful, he should have no problem securing takedowns, using his top control to work some ground and pound, and winning this fight unanimously on the cards.

If he is able to take Hendricks to the ground, Brenneman will need to make the most of it. Brenneman will try to use effective ground and pound to finish the fight. If this fight goes to the cards, it will likely mean that the fight was a wrestling match. In that case, it would almost certainly be Hendricks’ hand raised at the end of the fight.

The Finish: Johny Hendricks def. Charlie Brenneman by unanimous decision.

Stefan Struve vs. Christian Morecraft

The Hype: After three consecutive wins in the UFC, it appeared that Stefan Struve was ready for a step up in competition. Accordingly, he was matched against TUF winner Roy Nelson. Nelson quickly ended Struve’s win streak with a 39 second knock out. The 6’11” “Skyscraper” will now attempt to get back on track with a win over UFC newcomer Christian Morecraft.

Morecraft earned his spot in the UFC after earning a 6-0 record in two small, Massachusetts-based promotions called Reality Fighting and Cage Fighting Xtreme.

Struve’s Keys to Victory:

-Use reach advantage to keep distance

-Work for submissions on bottom

-Don’t get into a stand-up brawl

Morecraft’s Keys to Victory:

-Counter punch then clinch

-Pass Struve’s guard quickly

-Be prepared for submission attempts in Struve’s guard

The Fight: It’s always hard to predict how a UFC newcomer’s approach will alter when they face higher level opponents and are unable to throw their opponent around mindlessly, as they are accustomed to doing. Morecraft’s game plan seemed to be simple and consistent in his previous fights, so it is unlikely that his style will change a great deal for Struve.

Morecraft may find difficulty in striking from close range, as he likes to do, in this fight because of Struve’s always substantial reach advantage. Therefore, it is more likely that Morecraft will try to counter Struve and work for double under hooks. From there, Morecraft should be able to secure a trip takedown.

Once on the ground, it would be in Morecraft’s best interest to transition out of Struve’s guard as quickly as possible. If not, Struve will attempt to use his long legs to make Morecraft the eighth victim to succumb to his triangle choke. Morecraft’s capability to pass Struve’s guard could be a determining factor in this fight.

With 23 professional fights, including opponents such as Junior Dos Santos and Roy Nelson, Struve has a massive experience advantage over the six fights of Christian Morecraft. A disparity of this magnitude is bound to show itself at some point in this fight.

Struve will use this experience to his advantage and lock in a triangle that Morecraft never saw coming.

The Finish: Stefan Struve def. Christian Morecraft by submission (Triangle choke) in the first round.

Ben Saunders vs. Dennis Hallman

The Hype: It seemed like a marvelous idea at the time. A win over Jon Fitch would have immediately put Ben Saunders near the top of the Welterweight division and his name would be mentioned in conjunction with a title shot.

That was the plan when Ben Saunders requested to replace Thiago Alves, who was unable to fight because of a brain irregularity, at UFC 111 and oppose Jon Fitch. The UFC approved Saunders’ request and removed him from his scheduled fight against Jake Ellenberger.

The event that followed was somewhat of a debacle for Saunders. Instead of proving his worth against one of the division’s elite, Saunders was manhandled by Fitch. Saunders will now have to show marked improvement before he is given another opportunity against a fighter of Fitch’s caliber.

This fight should exhibit Saunders’ ability to learn from a loss and improve his weaknesses as his takedown defense will likely be put to the test again by Dennis Hallman.

Hallman had said he was interested in a move to lightweight after being knocked out by John Howard in his last fight and return to the UFC. Instead, Hallman will remain at 170 for this bout against Saunders, a large welterweight by many comparisons.

Along with Georges St. Pierre, Hallman is the only fighter to beat Matt Hughes on two separate occasions. However, this older version of Hallman is not same fighter that accomplished that feat in December 2000. Still, with 33 of 41 professional victories coming by way of submission, Hallman is always a threat on the ground.

Saunders’ Keys to Victory:

-Takedown defense

-Submission defense on bottom

-Use reach advantage

Hallman’s Keys to Victory:

-Secure takedown(s)

-Force Saunders to give up his back

-Stay out of Saunders’ clinch

The Fight: Saunders’ takedown defense was a major problem in his last fight. However, takedown defense is usually the fatal flaw for anyone that fights Jon Fitch. In this match-up, Saunders holds a size advantage that will make it difficult for Hallman to put him on the ground.

If Hallman is able to take Saunders down, he is fully capable of pulling off the upset with a submission. However, Saunders should be able to keep Hallman out of range for a takedown if he can use his reach to his advantage.

 Saunders used knees from the clinch very effectively to score a knockout of Marcus Davis in his last victory. Look for him to back Hallman up against the cage and finish this fight in similar fashion. It’s going to be a long road back to a fight with any title shot implications for Saunders, but he shouldn’t have much trouble with this first stepping stone.

The Finish: Ben Saunders def. Dennis Hallman by TKO (Knee and punches) in the second round.