ChanceBot Simulations: Week 13 NFL Game Impacts

Every week, ChanceBot.com measures the playoff implications (Impact) of each remaining NFL game.

Impact is determined by calculating the degree to which the outcome of each game changes playoff chances for each team.

The total impact of a game is the sum of the team-by-team changes. A detailed example of how these values are calculated is included below.

What follows are the Impact values for Week 13...

Matchup	IMP
Cleveland at Arizona	78.1
Detroit at Minnesota	65.0
NY Giants at Chicago	55.4
Seattle at Philadelphia	53.8
San Diego at Kansas City	45.9
Houston at Tennessee	43.0
Buffalo at Washington	36.8
Tampa Bay at New Orleans	34.2
Denver at Oakland	19.6
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh	15.4
Jacksonville at Indianapolis	11.4
San Francisco at Carolina	1.3
New England at Baltimore	0.4
Atlanta at St. Louis	0.3
Green Bay at Dallas	0.0
NY Jets at Miami	0.0

 
How Impact Is Calculated

Imagine a simple scenario in which Teams A and B are playing in the final week of the season.

Suppose there's a third team, Team C, which has a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs (depending on outcomes of other games) if Team A wins. If Team B wins, on the other hand, Team C will have only a five percent chance of making the playoffs.

The impact of the game between A and B on Team C is 45—the difference between 50 and five.

The total impact of A vs. B is determined by adding the game's individual impacts on each of the teams in the league.

Mark Myers is the founder and primary developer at ChanceBot.com, a sports simulation and analysis website. He can be reached at [e-mail]