Chronicle of a Beatdown Foretold; James Toney's Odds at UFC 118

A puncher’s chance. That sums up James “Lights Out” Toney’s odds against Randy Couture. Mid-July 2010, that possibility tips the scale at +350. Couture will be entering the Octagon on August 28 in Boston, Mass. the overwhelming favourite, valued at -600.

“Lights Out” Toney signed with the UFC back in March, but was on record calling out Brock Lesnar and whoever holds importance in the UFC since the beginning of 2010.

Before that, Toney was calling out boxing heavyweight title holders as well.  They just couldn’t be bothered to return his calls.

The unfortunate truth of the matter is that Toney is an aged boxer who rose to predominance back in the 1990s, and stretched himself for the proverbial low-hanging fruit to win a handsome number of vacant titles in second-tier promotions for about a decade, from the late 90s onward.

Needless to say, Toney is past his prime. No promotional boxing outfit is willing to shell out money to see him fight in a ring.

So, Toney dug deep into his stash of narcissism and came up with such gems as trash talking and stalking UFC president Dana White until a contractual agreement ensued.

Toney has a strong boxing record of 72 wins and six defeats with three draws. He has been named Fighter of the Year twice by the very reputable Ring Magazine. His last good outings date back to 2005-2006, notwithstanding the fact that his last opponents weren’t the most competitive.

He had good speed, and worked well against opponents at close range. He wasn’t the heaviest puncher out there, but managed to stop opponents by way of KO 44 times because he landed quickly and often.

So, can this older boxer manage to make it in the UFC? Is it possible that he's managed to acquire enough skills to sprawl, and avoid being assaulted on the mat by a potent wrestler? In 5 months? Against a UFC hall of famer?

Checking in on the hype side, Toney’s new coach, Juanito Ibarra, says his pupil will shock fans for his big debut. Rampage Jackson’s former coach let it be known that Toney trains with the best.

Apparently, Toney would have subbed current LHW Strikeforce title holder, Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal, during practice. Toney managed to name it a “rear naked” in an interview. The fact he can identify submissions surely adds credibility. Without a doubt.

Randy “The Natural” Couture (18-10) called out Toney on his Twitter account the day that followed “Light’s Out” signing his contractual agreement with the UFC. Couture’s eagerness might suggest he wants to box his opponent.

After all, what other challenge could there possibly be for a fighter who has held titles at different times in two weight divisions in the most profitable MMA promotion?

He could attempt to do just that, but that would play out to Toney’s advantage and prove foolish. Not due to Couture’s inability to neutralize his opponent, but rather because it would increase Toney’s very slim chances at winning by a fluke punch.

The chances of a Tim Sylvia vs. Ray Mercer repeat are extraordinarily slim, Couture being in better shape than Sylvia ever was, not forgetting his impressive wrestling, experience, etc. But if Couture leaves Toney enough room to set up and box him— though not impossible, Toney could land effectively. It remains very unlikely.  

Knowing Toney will want the fight to remain standing, and at all costs, Couture will likely push him up against the fence and knee Toney’s legs to a pulp, destabilizing him early.

To state the obvious, the odds that the fight ends on the ground are high. Couture’s overwhelming wrestling advantage confers on him the privilege to chose when the fight goes on the ground or not.

Toney could be dropped before the midway point in the first stanza, pummeled into a TKO defeat, or he could be subbed. Couture might not be able to dim Toney’s light low enough by just  boxing him, but he can end the fight in many different ways on the ground. However it may happen, it is very likely James Toney will have lost decisively before fans ever get to witness a second round.

Toney will be served a slice of humble pie, vowing to do better next time, eventually to follow the trail blazed by his ‘pal’ Simba, aka Kimbo Slice, and be dismissed from the UFC.

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