The Bell Curve and The Detroit Lions

Beginning in the early 1700s people interested in calculating the probability of outcomes began laying the foundation for our modern understanding of one of the most powerful forces of nature, the tendency of the universe to move toward equilibrium.

There are a lot of fancy words used to describe this tendency, including “regression to the mean (or average).” But most of us are already familiar with the most famous depiction of this principle: the bell curve.

In school, when a paper was graded “on the curve” the method your teacher was referring to was the bell curve. Even if all the papers were excellent or were all terrible, the best would receive an A and the worst a D, with the rest falling somewhere in between.

The discovery of the bell curve created a revolution in the science of probability. To put it simply, the driving force of the universe (including NFL football) is always towards average. In general, what goes up must come down, and what goes down must come up.

Fans love NFL football because of the glorious, valiant, and inevitably temporary successes that some teams manage to achieve through savvy scouting, synergistic talent acquisition and retention, great coaching, and of course the blood, sweat and dedication of its players.

At its best, NFL football is a game between warriors, an intense weekly drama with real live heroes and vanquished foes. It is also a game ripe with unpredictable surprises.

There have been 44 Super Bowls to date.

Every team in the NFL has won (correction: been to, not won...thanks Steve!) at least one Super Bowl except the Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns. (Correction, there are four teams: Lions, Browns, Texans and Jags...thanks Dan!)

Numerous teams have won multiple times and seven teams have managed back-to-back Super Bowl wins, including Pittsburgh, who accomplished that impressive feat twice. Great teams are not built overnight and rarely revert to average overnight either.

But the bell curve still applies. It takes consistent extraordinary effort on the part of an entire winning football organization to avoid reverting back to average.

In general, about half of the 12 teams that make it to the playoffs each year will fail to return to the playoffs the following year. Sometimes cellar-dweller teams achieve critical mass quickly and unexpectedly and rocket upwards in the standings.

For example, no one predicted that the Bengals would go from 4-11-1 in 2008 to 10-6 in 2009 or that Miami would go from 1-15 to 11-5 and Atlanta would go from 4-12 to 11-5 in 2008, or that the Saints would go from 3-13 to 10-6 in 2006.

Which leads me to the competition in the NFC North this year.

In order for predictions to be accurate and useful, new information must constantly be evaluated to revise probabilities based on old information.

The reason there are “surprise” basement-to-ballroom team stories almost every year is that sports pundits tend to let history bias their view of the future. If the Patriots have been good, their reasoning goes, they will remain good, and if the Lions have been lousy, they will remain lousy.

During this boring lull in actual football activity before training camps begin, just for the fun of it, I’m going to propose a radical notion: the NFC North is primed to undergo a shake-up. The football gods are about to grade Nordic division teams “on the curve.”

Last year’s NFC North regular season standings were as follows:

Team          W/L           Div

Vikings         12/4        5/1

Packers        11/5        4/2

Bears           7/9          3/3

Lions            2/14        0/6

This year, I predict that the standings will look more like this:

Team          W/L            Div

Vikings         9/7          4/2

Packers        9/7          4/2

Bears           3/13        0/6

Lions            9/7          4/2

Here are some of the reasons why:

Minnesota

Brett Favre had a remarkable season last year until his “deja vu all over again” last-minute interception against the Saints in the NFC Championship Game.

Even if he returns to the Vikings this year, the bell curve tells us that it’s highly unlikely that a QB averaging better than 16 interceptions a year over his 19 year career can limit himself again to a career-low 7 interceptions in 2010 or come close to the 107.2 passer rating he had last year after averaging a career PR of about 86.

In 2009, even with Pro Bowlers (G) Hutchenson and (OT) McKinney, the Vikings OL allowed Favre to get sacked 34 times. And it’s likely that Adrian Peterson (20 fumbles in 3 years) will continue to turn the ball over this year. Turnovers will take their toll, and the Vikings bye week comes very, very early this year for old man Favre.

Green Bay

There is little doubt that Aaron Rogers is on his way to becoming one of the best current QBs in the NFL. Still, it’s unlikely that with nagging injury carry-overs, OTs Clifton and Tauscher can remain healthy through the entire 2010 season.

Last year, the Packers OL let Rogers get sacked a stunning 50 times. And it’s doubtful that rookie OT Brian Bulaga will be of much immediate help in ending the saga of Rogers’ sack woes. Get sacked enough times, and injuries are inevitable.

Additionally, the Steelers and Cards exposed a glaring weakness in GB’s pass defense last year and the Packers haven’t done a thing so far to address their problems at CB.

Chicago

Jay Cutler threw 26 interceptions last season and was sacked 35 times. Those statistics are about to get worse in a Mike Martz offense that favors seven step drops and precise timing routes that no one on the Bears roster has game-time experience with. It will take at least a year before Martz’s offense will begin to be productive in Chicago, if he’s still around then.

Detroit

Because of their atrocious record during the last decade, and subsequent, almost completely unheralded improvement since 2009, the Lions will enter the 2010 season as perhaps the most underestimated team in the NFL.

On offense, the Leos acquired a bona fide franchise QB with the #1 pick of the 2009 draft to work with the #2 overall pick of the 2007 draft, premier WR Calvin Johnson.

They have also added a legitimate #2 WR in Nate Burleson, a very talented and incredibly speedy RB in Javid Best, and they now have a pair of impressive TEs.

Stafford, who was sacked 24 times in 10 games last year, will enjoy greater protection this year with the addition of veteran (G) Rob Sims (or perhaps ex-Patriot (G) Logan Mankins).

The Lions will score points this season. Last year they averaged 16.4 points per game. Add an additional touchdown per game this season.

On defense, the changes have been just as impressive. The DL rotation has been completely revamped with the addition of multiple Pro Bowler (DE) Kyle Vanden Bosch, (DT) Corey Williams and the #2 overall 2010 draft pick (DT) Ndamukong Suh to a mix that includes Sammie Lee Hill, Cliff Avril, Jared DeVries, Andre Fluellen, and Willie Young, among others.

The Lions LB core, with the exception of multiple Pro Bowler Julian Peterson, is largely a group of hungry, untested wildmen. Going into training camp, this group includes wildcard Caleb Campbell, a speedy, bruising LB converted from safety at Army. With a dramatically improved D-line rotation, these LBs could be dangerous.

The Leos primary corners, Chris Houston, Jonathan Wade, multiple Pro Bowler Dre’ Bly and 2010 draftee Amari Spievey are all upgrades over last year’s set.

FS Louis Delmas, the first pick of the Leo’s in the second round of the 2009 draft, became the first rookie in NFL history to record an interception return for a touchdown, a fumble return for a touchdown and a safety in the same season.

There are a number of interesting players contending for the other safety spot, beginning with C.C. Brown (the C.C. stands for Captn’ Crunch).

The Lions will be significantly better on defense this season.

Last year, the Leos allowed opposing teams to score on average 30.8 points per game. Look for that number to drop by at least a TD per game this season.

Last year opposing QBs averaged a 107.0 passer rating against the Lions. This season look for that number to drop closer to the league’s average QB passer rating.

The bottom line here is that both Minnesota and Green Bay are good teams, but they are not good enough or durable enough, nor have they made enough of an effort to avoid reverting back to average to repeat last year’s successes, especially given their vulnerability to sacks and the fact that the Lions have significantly boosted their ability to apply QB pressure this season.

Chicago is likely to regress badly this season. With former Detroit coaches Marinelli and Martz as the Bears DC and OC respectively, the Bears have essentially become the pre-Schwartz Lions on Lake Michigan.

So without further ado, I present my 2010 NFC North predictions, accurate to within one standard deviation either way (lol). Have fun!

W	Vikings	W/L	Packers	W/L	Bears	W/L	Lions	W/L
1	Vikings @ NO	L	Packers @ Eagles	W	Lions @ Bears	L	Lions @ Bears	W
2	Dolphins @ Vikings	W	Bills @ Packers	W	Bears @ Cowboys	L	Eagles @ Lions	W
3	Lions @ Vikings	W	Packers @ Bears	W	Packers @ Bears	L	Lions @ Vikings	L
4	Bye		Lions @ Packers	W	Bears @ Giants	L	Lions @ Packers	L
5	Vikings @ Jets	L	Packers @ Redskins	L	Bears @ Panthers	W	Rams @ Lions	W
6	Cowboys @ Vikings	L	Dolphins @ Packers	W	Seahawks @ Bears	W	Lions @ Giants	L
7	Vikings @ Packers	L	Vikings @ Packers	W	Redskins @ Bears	L	Bye
8	Vikings @ Patriots	L	Packers @ Jets	L	Bye		Redskins @ Lions	W
9	Cards @ Vikings	W	Cowboys @ Packers	L	Bears @ Bills	W	Jets @ Lions	L
10	Vikings @ Bears	W	Bye		Vikings @ Bears	L	Lions @ Bills	W
11	Packers @ Vikings	W	Packers @ Vikings	L	Bears @ Dolphins	L	Lions @ Cowboys	L
12	Vikings @ Redskins	W	Packers @ Falcons	L	Eagles @ Bears	L	Patriots @ Lions	L
13	Bills @ Vikings	W	49ers @ Packers	W	Bears @ Lions	L	Bears @ Lions	W
14	Giants @ Vikings	W	Packers @ Lions	L	Patriots @ Bears	L	Packers @ Lions	W
15	Bears @ Vikings	W	Packers @ Patriots	L	Bears @ Vikings	L	Lions @ Bucs	W
16	Vikings @ Eagles	L	Giants @ Packers	W	Jets @ Bears	L	Lions @ Dolphins	L
17	Vikings @ Lions	L	Bears @ Packers	W	Bears @ Packers	L	Vikings @ Lions	W
Tot		9/7		9/7		3/13		9/7
Div		4/2		4/2		0/6		4/2