Don't Buy the Hype: Three Overvalued NFL WRs

James Hatfield Jul 8, 2010

Miles Austin
Austin emerged as Dallas' clear number one receiver last year, putting
up some staggering numbers with 80+ receptions, over 1300 yards and 11
TDs. He's one of those blue collar receivers with great work ethic
and a positive attitude. He seems to get better each time he steps on
the field, so why is he on my buyer beware list? For one, there's
nothing more important in fantasy football than consistency... so you
have to take into account some factors that may have inflated his
numbers last year that aren't likely to happen this year. For example
out of 16 games last year, Austin had seven games where his longest
receptions were over 40 yards... 42, 60, 59, 49, 49, 49, 40. Only
problem is that in two of those games, (Week 1 - 42 yds and Week 9 -
49yds), they were his only receptions... granted they were both for
TDs. The odds of him catching passes for over 40 yards in nearly 50 percent
of his games again this year is greatly diminished now that he will be
the focus of many defensive coordinators game plans in 2010. Secondly,
Dallas drafted some guy named Dez Bryant who's supposed to be pretty
good, who I'm sure will get his fair share of looks. Seriously, they
just have too many weapons between one of the best TEs in the game
(Witten), a couple decent WRs in Williams and Crayton, a rookie WR
that could potentially make an immediate impact, and throw in a
healthy backfield with Barber and Jones. There are just too many
mouths to be fed for him to be a premier fantasy receiver this season.

DeSean Jackson
Jackson burst on to the scene last season and became one of, if not
the most feared deep threat in the NFL. He had receptions of over 20
yards in 12 of 16 games and averaged a whopping 18.6 yds per reception.
So there's no doubt this guy has the potential to put up some big
numbers in 2010. However, we need to evaluate other variables in the
equation before we anoint him as a fantasy superstar. He is another
guy who caught bombs last year and led the league in 40+ yd receptions
with 10. Another stat not likely to be repeated, especially when you
consider he will be catching passes from a new QB in Kevin Kolb, who
as a first year starter may not be as willing to air it as McNabb.
Yet another variable is red zone targets, as a smaller receiver
(5'10", 175 pounds), he is not a guy that can be physical and create
space, or out jump a solid No. 1 cornerback near the goal line.
Therefore, as the Eagles drive closer to the end zone Jackson's
greatest asset, speed, is rendered useless. Jackson had 63 receptions
last year which put 28 receivers ahead of him, something to consider
especially if you are in a PPR league, and red zone scenarios will
contribute to him seeing less targets especially within the 10 yard
line. Let's not forget that he also returns punts, which increases
his risk of injury.

Sidney Rice
I consistently see Rice ranked above guys like Colston, Jennings and
Boldin, but I just don't see his value being comparable to any of
those guys. Rice was able to flourish with a dinged up Bernard
Berrian in and out of the lineup and became the benefactor of soon to
be Hall of Famer, Brett Favre, having the best season of his life.
The 2009 season was more of a dream or better yet "fantasy" season for
Favre, which in turn became one for Rice. In the not so distant past
Favre had been almost as likely to throw an interception as a
touchdown. Excluding last year, since 1992 Favre averaged 18 INTs
per year. During that span his lowest total was 13 INTs... no joke, 17
straight years where he averaged a little over 2.5 times the INTs he
threw last year (seven) and when Favre throws a pick, Rice is off the
field. You can never question Favre's toughness, but he's coming into
the 2010 season with even more health issues and Rice's stock may
plummet quickly... it's just too risky and I’m not sold. Look at the
QB depth chart behind Favre and you're staring at Tavaris Jackson and
Sage Rosenfels, or in WR terms “the beginning of the end of your
career.” The Vikings will also continue to filter the majority of
their offense through elite RB Adrian Peterson. AP will also get the
majority of TD opportunities around the goal line which will cut into
Rice's TD total. Factor in with that, the emergence of Percy Harvin,
and Rice becomes a player likely to see a drastic decline in fantasy
value this year.