UFC 116: Preview and Predictions

Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin

The Hype:

A fight that was originally scheduled to take place at UFC 106, Lesnar vs. Carwin will now decide an undisputed UFC Heavyweight Champion as title belts will be unified.

After Lesnar pulled out of the scheduled UFC 106 bout to deal with a serious case of diverticulitis, an understandably disappointed Shane Carwin was forced to fight Frank Mir for the interim Heavyweight Championship.

Carwin made quick work of Mir with a first round technical knockout. Following Carwin’s victory, the healing Brock Lesnar entered the ring and said that Carwin was wearing a “make believe” belt.

Lesnar, now fully healed, will return to the octagon for the first time in nearly one year to back up his words and defend his “real” belt.

The Fight:

Both Lesnar and Carwin come from wrestling backgrounds, which they will try to put to use in very different ways for this fight.

Lesnar will most likely try to take Carwin down and ground and pound his way to a victory.

Meanwhile, Carwin will probably use his wrestling to defend Lesnar’s takedowns so that he can press Brock up against the cage and land one of his extremely powerful uppercuts.

It is that power that has allowed Carwin to maintain an undefeated record through his 12 professional fights. In addition, that power has given Carwin first round victories in each of those 12 victories.

This dominance has prompted questioning of Carwin’s conditioning should he have to go multiple rounds with Lesnar.

However, Carwin has repeatedly stated that he has excellent conditioning and joked that he wished his fight with Mir would have gone longer so he could have proved those doubters wrong.

Meanwhile, Lesnar’s doubters have voiced issues with the power behind his punches when standing.

Knockdowns of Couture and Herring discredit that idea. The truth is that these are two gigantic and extremely powerful fighters who have the ability to end the fight very quickly.

The Finish:

This is a tough fight to call because Carwin’s takedown defense has not been tested much in his time with the UFC. The same goes for Lesnar’s chin, which must be strong if one of Carwin’s punches lands.

In the end, will it even matter how good Carwin’s takedown defense is? If someone as big and fast as Lesnar wants to take you down, they probably will.

Similarly, will it even matter if Lesnar has a glass jaw or not? If someone with the power of Carwin lands an uppercut on the button, then you are getting knocked out.

Predicting the winner of this fight may be as simple as predicting what will happen first between a Lesnar takedown and a Carwin uppercut.

Lesnar should have a speed advantage in this match-up and that could be the difference. Lesnar wins via second-round TKO.

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Chris Leben

The Hype:

Akiyama was initially supposed to fight Wanderlei Silva at UFC 116. After an injury forced Silva out of the fight, Chris Leben stepped in as a replacement.

The fight will be Leben’s second in two weeks after his impressive TKO victory against Aaron Simpson at The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale.

This will be a huge opportunity for Leben, who could be a serious contender in the Middleweight division with a win.

Moreover, a loss would likely be chalked up as a lack of time for preparation and would not be damaging to Leben’s career.

Akiyama, who hasn’t fought in almost one year, had requested the fight with Silva and seemed less than excited about the idea of fighting Leben when the announcement of Silva’s injury was made.

The Fight:

Akiyama is the superior grappler in this fight and will likely try to take the fight to the ground and submit Leben.

Leben, who is normally an aggressive striker, will need to be conservative on his feet and avoid walking into an Akiyama takedown.

If Leben can avoid being taken down, he always has a puncher’s chance.

However, Leben’s conditioning, which is usually one of his strengths, could be a weakness heading into this fight with less than two weeks to prepare.

The Finish:

Barring a quick knockout, Akiyama should be able to take this fight to the ground. After tiring out the ill-prepared Leben, Akiyama will finish the fight with a submission late in the first round.

Chris Lytle vs. Matt Brown

The Hype:

Chris Lytle will be looking for his third consecutive victory at UFC 116. Lytle has won either Submission of the Night, Knockout of the Night, of Fight of the Night in seven of his last eight UFC fights.

Lytle had one fight outside of the promotion during that streak when he fought for the United Fight League in August 2007. His opponent for that fight was none other than Matt Brown.

Lytle won that meeting by submission in the second round. Matt Brown will look to exact revenge for that loss in this rematch.

The Fight:

There is no reason to believe that this fight shouldn’t end in similar fashion to the last meeting between these two fighters.

Neither fighter seems to have improved or digressed much over the past three years. Lytle, a jiu-jitsu black belt with a solid stand-up game, has the advantage no matter where this fight goes.

This will be an exciting fight, as most of Lytle’s fights are, while it lasts.

The Finish:

Lytle will try to soften Brown up on his feet. A battered Brown will try to take the fight to the ground and Lytle will take advantage of a poor takedown attempt. It will be déjà-vu for Brown as Lytle locks in a guillotine choke for the victory.

Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Stephan Bonnar

The Hype:

This fight is a rematch of a meeting between the two fighters at UFC 110, in which an inadvertent head butt caused a fight-ending cut that meant a loss for Stephan Bonnar. Bonnar and the fans asked for a rematch and the request was granted.

A loss at UFC 116 would mean four straight for Bonnar. That would match the losing streak of the most recent UFC cast-off, Keith Jardine.

The Fight:

Although Bonnar was the unfortunate victim of poor officiating in the first meeting, the fact remains that he was losing the fight before the stoppage.

It is unlikely that Bonnar, who is not exactly known for smart fighting and good game plans, will alter is approach much for the rematch.

Both fighters will be content to stand and trade. That is usually right where Bonnar wants the fight, but Soszynski has a good chin and the better technical striking in this match-up.

If this fight were to go to the ground, both fighters have a solid enough ground game to avoid any submission attempts.

The Finish:

Soszynski will be the aggressor in this fight as he will want to prove he deserved to win the last bout between the two fighters. In a stand-up battle that could end up being the Fight of the Night, Soszynski will grind out a unanimous decision victory.

George Sotiropoulos vs. Kurt Pellegrino

The Hype:

Coming off of an impressive unanimous decision victory against Joe Stevenson, Sotiropoulos will face Kurt Pellegrino, who has a loss to Stevenson on his resume.

However, with four straight victories, this may be a different Kurt Pellegrino than the one who lost to Stevenson three years ago.

Sotiropoulos has more to lose heading into this fight, as some people have already labeled him a contender. The winner of this fight may be just that.

The Fight:

Sotiropoulos is the smarter and more technical fighter in this match-up. Pellegrino is an exciting and up-tempo fighter, but that can lead to sloppiness at times.

Sloppy grappling is something that Sotiropoulos will take advantage every time. Pellegrino will need to show discipline if he wants to win this fight.

The Finish:

Much like Sotiropoulos’ fight against Stevenson, this fight will be a grappling exhibition for the better part of two rounds.

That is when Pellegrino will make a mistake that he will pay dearly for by having to tap his way out of a Sotiropoulos arm bar.

Brendan Schaub vs. Chris Tuchscherer

The Hype:

Brendan Schaub rebounded from his loss at The Ultimate Fighter 10 Finale with a TKO victory against Chase Gormley in the first round.

Meanwhile, Chris Tuchscherer also rebounded from a loss in his UFC debut with a decision victory against Tim Hague.

However, the win was lackluster so it wouldn’t be surprising if Tuchscherer is cut if he disappoints in this fight.

The Fight:

Tuchscherer showed a lack of conditioning in his last fight when he completely gassed in the third round. If this fight goes deep, look for that to play a factor.

However, that could be a big if since Schaub, who has seven professional fights, hasn’t had a fight enter the second round.

Tuchscherer, a two-time Division II All-American wrestler, will probably look for a takedown early in the fight.

Schaub has the ability to submit Tuchscherer if the fight does go to the ground and those submissions will come more easily if the fight goes into the later rounds as Tuchscherer tires.

The Finish:

The fight will be closely contested with both fighters standing. Tuchscherer might win a round or two by breaking the tie with takedowns. However, he will tire out in the third. Schaub will take advantage and end the fight with a Submission of the Night victory.

Seth Petruzelli vs. Ricardo Romero

The Hype:

Originally scheduled to take on Steve Cantwell, Ricardo Romero will now face Seth Petruzelli at UFC 116. Petruzelli is certainly a step down in competition from Cantwell.

However, Petruzelli does have two previous UFC bouts and this could be his last opportunity to earn a lasting position with the promotion.

Romero, a Ring of Combat standout, comes into the fight with a professional record of 10-1 with the loss coming by way of disqualification.

The Fight:

With four of his last five victories coming via submission, Romero certainly has a dangerous ground game.

The key to Romero winning this fight will be taking Petruzelli down. Petruzelli will want to stand with Romero and avoid the ground at all costs.

However, there is a reason the UFC originally scheduled Romero to fight a former WEC champion instead of a promotional journeyman like Petruzelli.

Romero is simply a better fighter and could end up being a legitimate light heavyweight prospect.

The Finish:

Romero will successfully take this fight into his comfort zone on the mat. An overmatched Petruzelli will succumb to a rear naked choke late in the first round.

Kendall Grove vs. Goran Reljic

The Hype:

Much like his career, Grove’s last fight was a rollercoaster ride of emotion. After nearly submitting Mark Munoz, Grove ended up losing the fight by TKO in the second round. Grove will try to bounce back against Goran Reljic at UFC 116. Reljic is entering this fight after the first loss of his career by way of unanimous decision to C.B. Dollaway.

The Fight:

Both fighters have strong ground games with many submissions to their names. However, Grove has utilized his jiu-jitsu against much higher level opponents than Reljic.

Grove, as usual, will have a reach advantage in this fight that he will need to use to create space so that he does not suffer the same fate as he did against Munoz.

The Finish:

Grove won’t make the same mistake he did in his last fight. He will fight a smart fight on his feet and force Reljic to take a bad shot.

Expect Grove to take advantage of this with a guillotine choke or he may pull guard and submit Reljic with a triangle choke. Either way, this is Grove’s fight to lose.

Gerald Harris vs. Dave Branch

The Hype:

Gerald Harris has been a pleasant surprise in his first two UFC fights with TKO victories against John Salter and Mario Miranda.

Now, he will be tested against a dangerous UFC newcomer in Dave Branch. With two submission victories in Bellator, Branch is certainly a legitimate UFC prospect. He will need to prove himself with a victory over Harris.

The Fight:

Harris is a powerful fighter with good wrestling. Although, he will probably try to stand in order to avoid Branch’s excellent ground game.

That doesn’t necessarily mean Harris has an advantage on his feet. Branch is also a solid boxer with three TKO wins. 

The Finish:

Harris will quickly realize that he can’t out-box Branch and will throw out his game plan. A successful takedown for Harris will not lead to a successful finish.

Branch will dominate the fight, but he will be unable to finish as Harris will muscle his way out of several submissions. Branch wins via unanimous decision.

Daniel Roberts vs. Forrest Petz

The Hype:

After a disappointing UFC debut and first professional loss, Roberts will try to get back to his winning way against Forrest Petz.

Petz, who had a stint with the UFC in 2006-2007, will try to extend his professional win streak to five straight.

The Fight:

Roberts has strong jiu-jitsu, and Petz has been susceptible to submission over the course of his career. Roberts also has an excellent wrestling background. This could be a deadly mix for Petz.

Roberts will try to take the fight to the ground and end it quickly. Petz will try to grind out a decision victory by keeping the fight standing.

The Finish:

Roberts should have no problem disposing of Petz in this fight. A quick takedown will lead to an early submission victory for Roberts.

Jon Madsen vs. Karlos Vemola

The Hype:

Madsen has grinded out two victories in the Octagon since his appearance on TUF 10. Next up for Madsen is Karlos Vemola, an undefeated UFC newcomer.

An interesting side note to this fight is the fact that Vemola’s wife is expected to deliver his second child on the day of the fight. It would be naïve to think that this would not affect him in some way, positively or negatively.

The Fight:

Vemola has won all seven of his professional fight in the first round. He should have the upper hand in this fight no matter where it takes place.

After getting beaten up by Vemola on his feet, Madsen will probably try to take the fight to the ground. Vemola’s takedown defense could be a determining factor in the outcome of this fight.

The Finish:

Madsen gets rocked by Vemola and tries to buy time to recover by attempting a takedown. Vemola stuffs it easily and ground and pounds Madsen until Madsen gives up his back.

Vemola locks up a rear naked choke and adds another first-round victory to his record.