UFC 116: Lesnar vs. Carwin Predictions

Quite literally, UFC 116 Lesnar v Carwin will live up to its name as the biggest heavyweight battle in the promotion’s history, both gentlemen expected to tip the scale close to a combined mass of 600 pounds when entering the Octagon for their bout, scheduled this Saturday July 3^rd in Las Vegas.

The headlining event is impressive size and speed wise. Both fighters move very quickly on their feet. They also present similar wrestling pedigrees. Odd makers and their lines favor the current UFC HW champion (-140) Brock Lesnar (4 wins, 1 loss) against Carwin (+115).    

The fight might stun MMA fans for a few reasons, as well as delight sports enthusiasts who will likely witness incredible (enhanced?) human machinery, pushing the limits of strength and conditioning parameters, all sports considered. With such strong wrestling experience on paper, it is plausible the fight could consist of a drawn out positioning contest.

Only Lesnar has experienced longer battles among the two fighters, his longest earning him a UD after going three rounds against Heath Herring. Is this a fight that will last? With the sheer size of the fighters contending for top honor, the most conditioned athlete of the two would likely earn a victory.

By the same token, fans would also get a clear idea about Carwin’s untested cardio and wrestling skills. Sure, power can stop fights early, but the level of competition in the promotion makes it invariable he’ll face an opponent who pushes him through the later rounds. Sometimes defending and being on his back as rounds increase. The upcoming fight might constitute such an occasion.    

Carwin (12-0) can rely on accuracy and power when it comes to his stand up game. On that front, Lesnar will likely want to avoid giving excessive room to his rival, as Carwin is quick to find his range and capitalize. His UFC record of 4-0 is very clear about this, all fights ending by (T)KO within the first round’s 4-min. mark.

Lesnar’s strengths consist of his cardio, impressive wrestling creds and brute force. He will need to be strategic and fight his fight, implying he should bring the fight to the ground and neutralize his opponent with his extraordinary physical strength. Also, Lesnar can land very quick shots that bring considerable damage were he to take Carwin down. The latter moving well on his feet, it is expected Lesnar will challenge Carwin’s takedown defence early and repeatedly.

Perhaps more importantly, Lesnar will need to avoid making more of this fight than it actually is. Having recently recovered from diverticulitis, he might wish to make a brash statement and stand toe-to-toe with Carwin. Although that would inevitably add an exclamation point to his UFC return after a year-long absence from the Octagon, he should avoid privileging the big comeback over a strategic win. His opponent having a knack to deliver top HL dollar for the promotion with impressive KOs, Lesnar would be defeated were his ego to get in the way.

All this said, the odds favouring Lesnar appear on the mark. Echoing words above, there are many facets of Carwin’s game that haven’t been given the opportunity to get tested in the past. Lesnar’s wrestling might overwhelm his opponent and his cardio might prove unmatched. A late stoppage if not a UD victory by Lesnar is quite likely.

The lead up fight to the main event will pit MW Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-1-2) to Chris Leben (20-6). Leben is coming into this fight mere weeks after his impressive KO victory over Aaron Simpson at the TUF 11 Finale. Lines favour Akiyama (-210) over Leben (+165).

Leben’s chin makes him nearly impossible to KO, with the exception of his loss to Andersons Silva four years ago. Akiyama got a tougher debut fight when he faced Alan Belcher a year ago. On the mat, Akiyama should prevail. The fact that Leben rarely seems to stick to a game plan also puts his opponent at an advantage over him. Akiyama by UD.

The WW fight between Chris Lytle (28-17-5) and Matt Brown (11-8) might be a repeat of their first fight some three years ago, Brown losing by submission in the 2^nd round. Or it might be a stand up fight where both aim to make a statement.

If previous recent fights from Brown can provide an indication as to the level of intensity to be expected, it will be a true battle lasting three exhausting rounds. A good candidate for the Fight of the Night Purse, with Brown possibly edging Lytle to win a UD, beating current odds that have him an underdog (+ 160) against Lytle (-200).

The rest of the main card might play out the following way. Or it might not. As always ;)

LHW bout between Krzysztof Soszynski (19-9-1) and Stephan Bonnar has Sos favoured (-230) to win over Bonnar (+180). That sounds about right, especially a decisive UD. By submission in the later round is also plausible.

The LW fight opposing a scraper (Kurt Pellegrino, 15-4) to a skilful BJJ artist (George Sotiropoulos, 12-2) will see the artist prevail. Lines favour Sotiropoulos (-200) over Pellegrino (+160), maybe by way of a submission in round 3.

Lines by Betus.com

Photo by Dave Mandel, Sherdog.com

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