Alistair Overeem: Breaking Down "The Demolition Man"

In order to analyze Alistair Overeem one must begin with hard numbers and data.

This is just the beginning, however, and while numbers may not lie they also fail to tell the whole story.

The following list excludes all k-1 fights that Alistair participated in.

The fights presented are only from 2006 forward. This is due to the fact that Overeem began his transition to heavyweight and it would not be fair to hold his prior record against him.

He is simply not the same person.

This list presents the methods of victory and names of the men Aistair has defeated since 2006.

1.   2/26/2006  Sergei Kharitonov via TKO 

2.   3/18/2006  Nikolajus Cikinas via Armbar

3.   6/09/2006  Vitor Belfort via Unanimous Decision

4.   6/23/2007  Michael Knaap via Guillotine

5.  11/16/2007 Paul Buentello via sub from strikes

6.   6/15/2008  Lee Tae-Hyun via KO

7.   7/21/2008  Mark Hunt via Keylock submission

8.  11/09/2008 Gary Goodridge via Kimura

9.  10/17/2009 Tony Sylvester via Guillotine

10. 10/25/2009 James Thompson via Guillatine

12. 12/31/2009 Kazuyuki Fujita via KO 

13.  2/15/2010  Brett Rogers via TKO

Overeem has lost to the following fighters since 2006:

1. 3/18/2006 Fabricio Werdum via Kimura

2. 7/01/2006 Big Nog via Towel from corner

3. 9/10/2006 Ricardo Arona via tapping from strikes

4. 2/24/2007 Mauricio Rua via KO

5. 9/17/2007 Segei Kharitonov via KO

Alistair is currently preparing for a four man tournament at DREAM 15 . This takes place in Japan on July 19th, 2010 at the Saitama Super Arena (37,000capacity) The organization officially announced that Alistair Overeem would participate, but they cant seem to find anyone to fight him.

A general breakdown of Alistair and his game has been provided below. Every effort was made to make sure the information presented is not biased.

Analysis:

Alistair Overeem may currently be the best fighter in the world. He has the size of Brock Lesnar and the skills of Fabricio Werdum. He most definitely has the most vicious knee strikes in all of MMA, and his stand up has been polished via his forays into K-1.

Now a smart person would look at the list above and say, "This guy is a bum!  He can't beat anyone good and I don't even know who half of the people he defeated even are".

This is true statement and reflects the data available, the so called "Proof in the Pudding" so to speak. 

On paper Alistair is a tomato can. He has lost many fights via KO and has never beaten a true contender. (One posssible contradiction to this is the beating he delivered to Mirko Cro-cop who found a way to get out of the fight via no contest from a groin strike.)

In reality he is extremely dangerous. 

Since becoming a heavyweight he has lost only one time early in his transition to Sergei Kharitonov. Beside that fight he has mauled everyone he has met in a ring or octagon. Basically it must be postulated that Alistair Overeem is a completely different fighter than the man who fought with the same name prior to 2006.

Alistair has a large gas tank as well, rarely needing rest. The pace that he subjects his opponents to is often too much to bear all by itself.

His size, of course, certainly helps him. This is true even in a division that commonly sees three hundred pound men. He is six foot -five and is an incredibly lean 265lbs. While controversy has surrounded the development of his physique, he has yet to fail any examination or test required by various athletic commissions.

He is a truly frightening human being. He also not shy about using his skills outside of the cage. Make of that what you will.

The Problem:

Alistair has a weak chin. This is extremely unfortunate. If not for that weakness he would dominate everyone in the world with relative ease. Including every UFC heavyweight.

Fortunately for humanity's sake he is vulnerable. 

In addition to a weak chin Alistair does not like to be ground and pounded. Often he has given up due to strikes from the guard.

Commentary:

Alistair is an immensely talented fighter that indeed has a lot in common with Andrei Arlovski. Both are incredible athletes and have all the skills in the world. Unfortunately they tend to get knocked out. Weak chins. 

Despite Alistairs tremendous growth and skill level he would not have success against certain types of fighters. They say match-ups make the fight and in Alistair's case this could not be more true.

Alistair would do well against a Mir, Lesnar, Nelson, or Cain for instance. He would have trouble with fighters like Gonzaga,  Carwin, and of course , Fedor.

Justification:

OK many fans might say- well what about Dos? Why would you pick Gonzaga over Lesnar?

The unfortunate fact relating to Dos is that Alistair would have him on the ground in seconds, thereby taking away his striking power. Overeem would go to the ground as fast as he could because he knows just as well as everyone that he has a questionable chin. He would not test it against Dos. Dos would be "demolished" on the ground.

Gonzaga has power in his strikes which has been seen time and again. He also has an excellent ground game which would likely enable him to keep the fight standing. Gonzaga has a big advantage in the stand-up as long as he can toss his bombs before getting caught in a Thai clinch or guillotine. All it takes is one shot from Gonzaga and Overeem would be asleep.

An excellent example of this is Alistair's latest fight with Brett Rogers. Alistair had no interest whatsoever in a boxing match. Brett may be overrated but he certainly posseses a ton of power in his strikes- something Alistair must avoid in order to win.

Fedor is not a good match-up for Alistair. He is far to elusive and his overhand right would likely spell doom for Alistair. After all Fedor's strength preys on Alistair's weakness. Overeem has a weak jaw and Fedor has a nasty habit of hitting jaws. 

On the ground it would be even worse for Overeem. Alistair has a very good ground game specifically designed to get the top position and drop strikes or get a choke. Unfortunately Fedor has never been submitted and a great example of his elusiveness is his battle with Noguiera. Triangles, armbars, or chokes. In the end he cannot be trapped that way and so Alistair would most likely lose.

That doesn't mean Overeem is less skillful than Fedor. Quite the contrary, Overeem has evolved as a fighter much more over the years than Fedor has.

When you win you dont change your methods. In some ways losing can make you better because you have to work harder.

Conclusion:

Alistair is certainly a top five heavyweight. He is certainly on par with any fighter the UFC has to offer. Despite the challenge he would face in overcoming the weaknesses I described above, Alistair would do extremely well.

Would it honestly shock you to see him as the UFC Heavyweight Champion?

One final dilemma to consider. If Fedor is beaten by Overeem, Dana White would have a large problem on his hands. He could be facing another decade of people telling him the number one pound for pound fighter is not in the UFC.

Ah the irony.

Sources:

via LowKick.com

Wikipedia (fight data)

MMAUniverse.com

Fanhouse.com