The Break Down Volume II: De Souza's Preview of WEC 49

Twenty-four hours removed from The Ultimate Finale 11 will be Zuffa's last show in Canada for the time being as the WEC presents its 49th event with Jamie Varner facing undefeated Kamal Shalorus.

Co-headlining the card are two featherweight bouts, one between former UFC veteran Mark Hominick and Canadian stand-up artist Yves Jabouin, and the other between LC Davis and Josh Grispi.

A bout featuring Ed Ratcliff and Chris Horodecki was called off due to unknown reasons regarding "9MM", who posted an apology on his Facebook wall.

The news of the Horodecki/Ratcliff fight can be found here.

How do the remaining fights play out? That's up to you to decide.

However, let me break down how these should be going from where I'm spectating.

Eddie Wineland vs. Will Campuzano

The WEC's inaugural bantamweight king returns to action fresh off a win over George Roop, but in his way stands an outstanding athlete whose only loss came by way of a rear naked choke.

Both men are fairly well rounded, but only one of these two can walk out of Edmonton with the win.

Who's it going to be? Well, let's have a look, shall we?

Keys on the Feet

For Wineland, the matter of finishing a fight convincingly before Round Three hasn't been a problem.

That said, he has been to the judges four times in his career, but luckily he has won three out of those four times.

Wineland's a fighter that has finished the majority of his opponents by way of TKO or KO, so the stand up is a strong spot for him.

Of course, it's not exactly a weak spot for Campuzano either.

Campuzano had beaten three of his opponents by way of the KO column—two by TKO and one by KO.

If you want a fight that could see some heated exchanges, this is the fight you may want to watch.

Will It Hit the Ground?

Four of Wineland's pro losses were by submission, as was the only loss of Campuzano's career.

Two of Campuzano's wins were by the same, as were five of Wineland's wins.

Now, for a submission to happen, the fight doesn't have to go to the ground, but it may help one of them if it did.

Thus, it'd be germane—fitting—to the success of one of these fighters if they were to work some grappling and possibly a takedown or two into their game.

The more difficult of a situation they can put the other fighter in, the better it is for them.

Who Gets the Win?

I'll go with Wineland, for experience, but don't be surprised if Campuzano shows that he deserves the victory with a grueling submission attempt or a cut-opening shot to the forehead.

My guess: Wineland by submission or TKO in one of the first two rounds.

LC Davis vs. Josh Grisp

To me, this is still the wild card in the WEC featherweight picture.

The inevitable bout with Manny Gamburyan notwithstanding, it's helpful to Jose Aldo and the Black House camp if they keep their eyes on this fight because the winner of this fight could be a contender to his throne at a future point in time.

Few fighters aside from Mike Brown have established themselves as legit contenders quite like Davis and Grispi.

Reed Harris even said himself that this fight could be a wild card in deciding Aldo's next opponent, saying that Manny Gamburyan wasn't a locked-in contender to Aldo yet.

So if Gamburyan isn't a set-in-stone contender, then who is?

Nobody, but the winner of this one could come close to it.

Wrestling is Great for Davis, but the Ground is Great for Grispi

Davis is a wrestler, but he's been strong all around.

Five wins by form of knockout, five wins by decision, and six wins by decision...that's a pretty good way to kick-off your road to the featherweight title.

He should have a good time trying to keep Grispi neutralized, but there is one thing he should look out for, and that's submissions.

Like any wrestler, Davis wants to take Grispi to the ground, but six of Grispi's past foes tried to do so, and they tapped out.

Of course, Davis is different from these past opponents, carrying four more fights than Grispi, but it'd still be of use to work in some submission defense because there's no telling what Grispi could do to Davis as far as submissions go.

Quick Finish on the Rise?

All but two opponents of "The Fluke" have been beaten in Round One. One opponent beat Grispi in Round One, and the other lost to Grispi by decision.

That tells me that Grispi is a good example of a fighter that loves to finish.

Whereas Davis has had five wins by the judges' cards, Grispi's only had one fight go to the judges.

Either Davis implements his wrestling ability and keeps Grispi down for three rounds, or Davis goes for the win in Round One.

Either way, Davis is going to have to own the first round in order to have any chance of beating Grispi. If not, he could be just another victim that "The Fluke" claims in the first round.

Who Moves a Step Closer to Jose Aldo?

Reed Harris said that depending on how this goes, the winner could be a step closer to a shot at Aldo, but more than likely, the winner would have to face Manny Gamburyan and prove that they deserve the shot.

Stylistically, I'd think that this fight is a stalemate on the ground but favorable for Grispi on the feet. Davis does present some problems for Grispi, though.

My guess: Davis will win, but it'll be a split decision.

Mark Hominick vs. Yves Jabouin

This right here is a battle of two Canadian knockout artists—Hominick is from Thamesford, Ontario, and Jabouin is from Montreal, Quebec.

It's the Jackson-affiliated Tri-Star camp versus the Xtreme Couture camp when these two clash.

How will this go down?

It might be something like this.

A Stand-Up Affair

Hominick has finished 14 in his career —that's seven by form of knockout and seven by submission, and he's four short of being even with Jabouin.

I said that Wineland's fight could see some exchanges, but if that one doesn't see any intense exchanges, this one might.

Would Hominick Rather "Go Down" Than "Stay Up" with Jabouin?

Jabouin's only gotten two wins by way of submission, and two is five less than seven.

This basically means that Jabouin will probably want to keep the fight on the feet, but does Hominick want to bring it to the ground with a Firas Zahabi-trained fighter?

After all, two wins by submission doesn't necessarily mean that a fighter is weak on the ground. It just means that the fighter has finished early.

In Jabouin's case, "early" has come to mean "before Round Three".

Still, I wouldn't say he's bad at submissions or grappling.

Maybe Hominick should take it to the ground to test out what kind of skills Jabouin really has.

Who Takes it All in This All-Canadian Featherweight War?

This is anyone's guess. Someone by TKO, submission, or split decision for sure, though if someone's edging it out, I'd say that someone might be Jabouin.

Like I said though, it's anyone's guess.

Jamie Varner vs. Kamal Shalorus

In seven fights, the "Prince of Persia" has knocked four people out, submitted one, scored a unanimous decision in his last fight against Dave Jansen, and drew in his fourth pro fight.

Jamie Varner is returning to action for the first time since losing the WEC lightweight title to Ben "Smooth" Henderson.

This one is going to get interesting.

Unblemished, Undeniable...Untouchable?

In seven pro fights, only the person who drew with Shalorus has come close to defeating him. No one had come close before, and no one has come close since.

Like most wrestlers—and quite candidly, most people in mixed martial arts—Shalorus has takedown capabilities and he has some sick boxing skills.

Granted, he's still young in his career, so those skills aren't to where I can say that they're the WEC's answer to BJ Penn's punches. They are, however, to where he can knock somebody out if he lands a swift combination.

Also, he does have the freestyle wrestling ability, so after he takes you down, he can find a way to fight for control and from there he can take the fight anywhere he pleases.

One Fight at a Time for the Former Champ Until He Gets Back to "Smooth"

When you're the champion, every fight you have ahead of you is bigger than the one you fought in order to win the title.

Why?

Because the only way you get a non-title fight in MMA when you're the champ is if you move up a weight class or if you or your opponent—or God forbid, both of you—come in to the fight overweight.

Jamie Varner didn't overlook Ben Henderson at all, which I respect Varner for doing.

Champions should never, under any circumstances, take their challengers lightly.

Henderson wasn't overlooked by Varner. Varner just tried to take down Henderson in Round Three and got himself caught in a guillotine.

People get caught in MMA. That's just how the game is played.

Anyhow, this fight is Varner's chance to bounce back from the loss to Henderson, and he has the tools that it takes to combat Shalorus.

As a matter of fact, he's got the same wrestling and boxing ability of Shalorus.

The only thing he brings in to this fight that Shalorus doesn't have is a record with 14 more fights than the "Prince of Persia".

Will Varner be Able to Bounce Back?

For Varner to remain in the running for Ben Henderson, losing to the undefeated Shalorus is not an option.

Stopping the undefeated lightweight sensation's seven-fight pro streak is.

Stylistically, this one is even, but as much as I like where I think Shalorus is headed, I'm going to say that Varner wins by either submission or TKO. I think Varner will be just too experienced for the likes of Shalorus.

With this win, Varner should be back on the path that he needs to be on in order to convince Reed Harris that he deserves a second shot at Henderson.

So there you have it, boys and girls.

While the fights may not go the way I'm predicting, there is one definite, and that is that there isn't a fight on the card that'll lack excitement.

All of these fights have at least one reason why they shouldn't be missed by fans.

Don't think so? Tune in this Sunday for WEC 49: Varner vs. Shalorus.

You might be surprised at what you see.