ChanceBot Simulations: Week 12 NFL Game Impacts

Every week, ChanceBot.com measures the playoff implications (Impact) of each remaining NFL game. Impact is measured by calculating the degree to which the outcome of each game changes playoff chances for each team. By summing the team-by-team changes, the total impact of a game is measured. For a detailed example of how these values are calculated, see the end of this article.

What follows are the Impact values for Week 12.

Match Up	Impact
Houston at Cleveland	75.2
Washington at Tampa Bay	53.4
San Francisco at Arizona	53.1
Tennessee at Cincinnati	51.8
Philadelphia at New England	48.7
Seattle at St. Louis	43.7
Minnesota at NY Giants	42.9
Green Bay at Detroit	41.6
Baltimore at San Diego	37.6
Buffalo at Jacksonville	34.1
Denver at Chicago	33.1
Oakland at Kansas City	29.7
Miami at Pittsburgh	18.2
New Orleans at Carolina	15.2
Indianapolis at Atlanta	2.2
NY Jets at Dallas	1.5

Example of How Impact is Calculated

The easiest way to think about impact is to imagine a simple scenario where teams A and B are playing in the final week of the season. Suppose there is a third team (team C) which has a 50% chance of making the playoffs (depending on other games) if team A wins. However, if team B wins, team C will have only a 5% chance of making the playoffs.

The impact of the game between A and B on team C is 45 which represents the difference between 50 and 5. By adding together the impact of the game on all the teams in the league, the total impact is determined.

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Mark Myers is the founder and primary developer at ChanceBot.com, a sports simulation and analysis website. He can be reached at [e-mail]