Ultimate Fight Night 21 Breakdowns and Predictions

The UFC brings Ultimate Fight Night 21 to the Bojangles Coliseum in North Carolina. In a card littered with Ultimate Fighter Alumni, it should be a decent night. This is obviously the eye of the storm of UFC 111 and UFC 112. The event will also mark the arrival of the legendary, Takanori Gomi.

I’m going to try to break this thing down. I encourage you to read my breakdowns to see why I made the predictions that I made. At the end of the breakdowns, I will have my official picks and fight honors listed. Thanks for reading. Enjoy the fights!

I'm Takanori Gomi! Who the hell are you?

Kenny “Kenflo” Florian Vs. “Fireball Kid” Takanori Gomi

Key Victories :

Florian : (Joe Stevenson, Clay Guida, Roger Huerta, Joe Lauzon, Din Thomas, Sam Stout)

Gomi :   (Tatsuya Kawajiri, Jens Pulver, Hayato Sakurai, Marcus Aurelio, Mitsuhiro Ishida)

Forecast :

Finally! Takanori Gomi has arrived in the UFC. Before we celebrate his arrival, let us thank God that this event wasn’t called UFC Fight Night 21: Japan Vs. USA. The UFC has done this in the past. We must stop these heinous events. They will only lead to rifts between countries. Remember the supposed ban of “French” Fries? We cannot afford to take that risk with next season’s Ninja Warrior. With that said, Takanori Gomi will face Kenny Florian in an anticipated lightweight clash.

Once upon a time, Gomi was considered by some as the best lightweight in the world…A gogoplata submission loss to a tweeked out Nick Diaz and two more random defeats later…He isn’t even top 15. Currently, Gomi is riding a two fight winning streak. Could his debut in the octagon propel a turning point in his career? Anything is possible. Look at Vitor Belfort. Gomi was the former Pride Lightweight Champion. His fighting style consists of Boxing, Wrestling, and Shooto. He has a plethora of experience with 37 fights to his record.

Kenny Florian is one of the best lightweights in the world. Coming off his loss to BJ Penn, Florian decimated Clay Guida at UFC 107. He is a black belt in BJJ and Genjitsu. People often forget his grappling credentials due to his slick use of Muay Thai and Kickboxing. Many remember Florian as a finalist on the first season of The Ultimate Fighter. He has since improved leaps and bounds.

Keys to Victory :

The economy and inflated gas prices have been hitting Gomi longer than most Americans. Seemingly gassing out in every competitive fight, he has been riding on “E” for awhile now. If Gomi comes into this fight out of shape, forget about keys to victory. There is no way he wins this fight. We will need to see an invigorated Gomi in this bout. It all starts in the gym for him.

When pressured, Gomi has been known to drop his hands and swing back wildly. Florian is a very technical fighter. He will make you pay for every mistake. Gomi will need patience in this fight. At times, he may even need to step in a countering role. He should wait for openings, explode into exchanges, and get out. I really liked his game plan against Mitsuhiro Ishida. That could prove effective in this fight.

The primary key for Gomi is to get Florian out of his game. If Kenny is picking shots and bouncing in and out of range, it will be a bad debut for the “Fireball Kid”. Gomi is heavy handed. If he can land that left straight or overhand, he could get a KO and jump instantly into title contention. It will be interesting to see how Gomi adjusts to fighting in a cage. He needs to circle and avoid getting pressed against the fence and taken down.

Kenny needs to come out and make Gomi work. He should be aggressive in the first round by immediately setting up the takedown. On the ground, Kenny can wear Gomi out. In the second round, he can mix things up by standing. He needs to really work leg kicks. Gomi is bad about checking them. Successful leg kicks could possibly lead to a fight ending head kick.

Kenny should force Gomi into untested waters. Push him against the cage and see how he works from the clinch. While heavy handed, people often forget about Gomi’s wrestling. He could switch up his strategy and shoot for takedowns. Kenny has had problems with wrestlers in the past…No, Gomi’s wresting isn’t as good as Diego Sanchez’s or Sean Sherk’s…But! It is present and worth noting. It is obvious that Gomi will be looking for that one shot knockout. Kenny should use good lateral and head movement to avoid getting caught on the feet.

Prediction :

As much as I hate to say it, Takanori Gomi just isn’t the same fighter anymore. In recent bouts, he’s completely gassed out. There were times where he would just put his hands down at his side to suck in large quantities of air. This isn’t a good fight for him. Instead of letting him get his feet wet, the UFC decided to throw him in with a world class Lightweight. Unless drastic changes are made, I don’t see Gomi sticking around for long.

Kenny welcomes Gomi to the UFC in a bad way. Look for Gomi to get outclassed in every facet of the game. He will hang for the full onslaught; however, it won’t be pretty. Gomi may be left wondering why in the hell he took this fight when Kenny Florian is awarded the unanimous decision.

You're the best! Around! Nothing's gonna ever keep ya down!

Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve Vs. Roy “Big Country” Nelson

Key Victories :

Struve : (Paul Buentello, Chase Gormley)

Nelson : (Brendan Schaub, Brad Imes, Fabiano Scherner)

Forecast :

As a fighter, you are pressured to perform. Many people are depending on you…your training partners, your coaches, your family and friends, your fans, and your promoter. You put in hours upon hours of training to hone your skills and be the best you can possibly be. At times, It can feel like you have the weight of the world on your shoulders. On Wednesday night, Stefan Struve will be feeling this…literally! Struve looks to continue his Heavyweight climb by dispatching of Roy “Big Country” Nelson.

Struve is a 6’11 Kickboxer and BJJ artist. There is obviously a reason he is nicknamed “Skyscraper”. At UFC 107, he locked up his biggest win by taking a majority decision over Paul Buentello. He is currently on a 3 fight winning streak.

Many remember Roy Nelson as the winner of the Ultimate Fighter 10: Heavyweights. “Big Country” has been around for a long time. I honestly believed he was too good for the show from the beginning. In the end, it has boosted his career and notoriety. Good for him!

He is a black belt in BJJ. Could we see flying armbars, mission control, or possibly even the full utilization of the rubber guard? I hope so. Roy’s style predominantly consists of wrestling and boxing. In his last outing, he KO’d Brendan Schaub in the TUF 10 finale.

Keys to Victory :

Being 6’0, Nelson will be at a height disadvantage. He will also be at a huge reach disadvantage. If he wants to engage on the feet, Nelson is going to have to close the distance on Struve. He should utilize his takedowns in this bout. From the ground, he could work strikes and look to set up his patented crucifix position. Struve has incredibly long legs to accompany his height. Nelson is going to have to stay alert and make sure one of those long legs don’t slip past his arm.

Despite being composed of bacon grease, root beer, birthday cake, and SPAM, “Big Country” has good cardio. Struve was looking really tired towards the end of the Buentello fight. With the exhaustion, he started attempting risky, uncharacteristic maneuvers. Remember the most telegraphed flying knee in MMA history? Roy should be on the lookout for these mistakes. Struve could be one telegraphed knee away from having to change his nickname to “Floor Scraper”.

It is vital that Struve does a good job at judging range in this fight. He should use his length to pepper Nelson with punches on the outside. When “Big Country” tries to close the distance, he should circle away. As long as this bout relies on outside striking, Struve should be in complete control. He shouldn’t rely heavily on leg kicks. Nelson will be looking for anyway to close the distance. If a leg kick is caught, Struve could be in trouble.

If the fight hits the ground, he needs to use his long legs to create space to get back to his feet. Nelson loves side control. He will position himself there to try to set up the fight ending crucifix position. When that belly props up, there is no saving you. Struve should also stay away from unorthodox standup. He is just too slow to pull off such crafty maneuvers.

Prediction :

It would be great if the State Athletic Commission allowed oxygen masks in fights. Stefan Struve is going to need one in this bout. Look for Nelson to one up Eddie Bravo’s “Mission Control” by instituting his own version of “Belly Control”. “Big Country’s” top game will be dominate en route to a unanimous decision.

I'm on the main card!!!!

Jorge “El Conquistador” Rivera Vs. Nate “Rock” Quarry

Key Victories :

Rivera :  (Kendall Grove, Travis Lutter, David Loiseau)

Quarry : (Jason MacDonald, Kalib Starnes, Pete Sell, Tim Credeur)

Forecast :

Jorge Rivera is one of those guys who does just enough to keep the UFC from sacking him. He has seemingly found his stride now that he’s on a 2 fight winning streak. We’ll see if this renewed vigor can get him past the perpetual mid-carder, Nate Quarry.

Rivera is boxer, wrestler, and BJJ fighter. He is currently training at Team Sityodtong. The team is based out of Boston, Massachusetts. His training partners consists of guys like Marcus Davis, Patrick Cote, and Stephan Bonnar. You may recall him from the Ultimate Fighter Season 4: The Comeback.

It’s hard to look at Nate Quarry without remembering the KO devastation he suffered at the hands of Rich Franklin. For a long time, people switched his nickname from “Rock” to “I got Knocked Out like a Rock”. Quarry has been a solid UFC mid-carder for awhile now. He has only suffered losses to number one contender, Demain Maia and former UFC MW champion, Rich Franklin. Not bad huh!?

The problem with Quarry has been his overall lack of improvement. He remains the same robotic, predictable striker he was when he first entered the UFC. Like Jorge, Quarry has also won two in a row. With a win here, he will likely earn himself a shot against an upper echelon fighter in the MW division.

Keys to Victory :

Rivera has to take advantage of Quarry’s slow, technical striking. He needs to be aggressive and try to beat Quarry to the punch. When forced on his heels, Quarry isn’t the same fighter. Rivera has to take the center of the octagon and force him out of his comfort zone. Despite being slow and robotic, Quarry has cinderblocks for hands. Rivera has to be weary of leaving his chin out there or over-committing on combinations.

When the distance closes, he should also try to use his uppercut. He has a nasty one that could staunch Quarry in a single collar tie-up. It would be nice to see “El Conquistador” mix some dirty boxing with his outside assault.

Quarry has to take the center of the octagon. He is at his best when he is the aggressor. Rivera’s chin is less than stellar. He should look to test it in the exchanges. It would be awesome to see some true improvements in Nate’s game. He should actually use head movement for a change. Throughout entire bouts, he never moves his head unless he’s defending a takedown. If he can’t improve his static posture, Nate will remain a mid-carder for the rest of his career.

His posture makes him incredibly predictable. You never have to worry about kicks or takedown attempts. If you did, they would all be telegraphed thanks to his robotic movements. We’ll see if Nate has made the necessary adjustments.

Prediction :

This fight could go either way. I’m going with Robot Boy. Quarry’s bad posture will earn him another octagon victory. He will hurt Jorge on the feet. A hurt Jorge will back into the cage and desperately try to cover up from the continuing barrage of punches. The ref will finally step in as he is dropped by the round 1 flurry.

Haha! Gotcha!

Ross “The Real Deal” Pearson Vs. Dennis Siver

Key Victories :

Pearson : (Aaron Riley, Andre Winner)

Siver :     (Paul Kelly)

Forecast :

In the opening bout, Ross Pearson will take on Dennis Siver. Yes! The fight all UFC fans have been waiting for. Who cares if we have Yushin Okami on the undercard? It’s not like we want to see Caol Uno Vs. Gleison Tibau. If you haven’t been able to sniff out the sarcasm by now, then shame on you! This isn’t a bad fight by any means. There are just other fighters more deserving of a main card slot. Pearson and Siver shouldn’t disappoint though.

Fighting out of Sunderland, England, Ross Pearson is a member of Team Rough House. Fighters such as Dan Hardy, Paul Daley, and Andre Winner also train there. Pearson is a black belt in Taekwondo and a brown belt in Judo. He is the winner of the Ultimate Fighter Season 9: U.S. Vs. U.K. In his last fight, he looked very impressive against Aaron Riley. It was an eye-opening performance to Pearson’s incredible potential in the LW division.

Siver is a kickboxer from Mannheim, Germany. He was in the UFC earlier and released after suffering back to back losses to Gray Maynard and Melvin Guillard. Since returning, he has amassed a 4 fight win streak. The streak was capped with an impressive stoppage of Paul Kelly at UFC 105.

Keys to Victory :

Pearson needs to repeat his performance against Aaron Riley. He doesn’t have to really worry about getting taken down in this fight. He should be able to mix things up on the feet. Pearson has a dangerous right straight. He should look to set that up in the fight.

It shouldn’t be hard disguising his true intentions with the many tools at his disposal. Pearson does a great job of mixing in kicks, elbows, and knees from the Muay Thai Clinch. Siver doesn’t have great takedown defense. That will add another option for Pearson to possibly to pursue.

Despite being better than Aaron Riley in the countering department, I wouldn’t advise Siver following the same game plan. Pearson is a very aggressive fighter. He has heavy hands, tight combinations, and a good chin. Siver will have to take control of the octagon. He can’t afford to just sit back and have the fight brought to him.

He needs to get after Ross Pearson. Siver has a nice front kick. He throws it so fluently that it resembles a jab. He should really work his kicks in this fight. It could prove possible to slow Pearson’s advancements with repeated kicks to the legs and body.

Prediction :

This fight will be fast and exciting for as long as it lasts. Don’t bank on it lasting too long. Pearson will come out and hurt Siver with a straight. He will then lunge at his opponent’s neck to secure the guillotine finish in the first round.


Official Picks

Kenny Florian By Unanimous Decision

Roy Nelson By Unanimous Decision

Nate Quarry By Round 1 TKO

Ross Pearson By Round 1 Submission


Fight of the Night : Kenny Florian Vs. Takanori Gomi

Knockout of the Night : Nate Quarry Over Jorge Rivera

Submission of the Night : Ross Pearson Over Dennis Siver