Saint Louis vs. Virginia Commonwealth Odds & Pick: March 29th 2010

Saint Louis vs. Virginia Commonwealth
Free Pick: Saint Louis +9 -110 odds
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St Louis has been an under-the-radar pointspread machine for the better part of the last two months. Rick Majerus did not enter the season with great expectation for his Billikins squad, and St Louis did not look like a postseason contender for the first three months of the season. But St Louis has caught fire: 12-3 SU, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 ballgames; including a 7-2 ATS mark as an underdog (with six outright wins) during that span. Two of their three losses came against NCAA tourney caliber opposition – Temple and Xavier – and both of those defeats came by six points or less, enough to cover tonight’s inflated pointspread.

The Billikins statistical profile is not going to overwhelm anybody. They miss free throws. They don’t rebound well. At times, the offense grows stagnant. Leading scorer Kwamain Mitchell goes cold at times. Big men Willie Reed and Cody Ellis are not dominant low post presences. There’s not much scoring punch coming off the bench.

Yet even with these weaknesses, the Billikins have done two things on a consistent basis all year long; the two things that are likely to keep them in this game for the full 40 minutes tonight. First and foremost, St Louis plays tremendous defense, holding foes to 40 percent shooting for the season; 28 percent from three point range. VCU loves to get out and run in transition. Their last two losses – both against Old Dominion – came in games where the opposing team forced their pace on the Rams. We can expect this game to be played at St Louis’s pace, not VCU’s.

The other thing St Louis has can’t be measured statistically. Quite simply, this team has heart. We’ve seen it for months now, as they’ve grinded out one tough win after the next. The Billikins don’t quit when trailing. They don’t let up when leading. They hang tough in hostile enviroments. Much like their head coach, this squad is still something of an undervalued commodity, worthy of support in a game that they don’t need to win in order to cover. 2* Take St Louis.