2010 NFL Draft: Running Back Analysis, Part One (Nos. 1-10)

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While there are some very good running backs at the top of this class, I think there is tremendous value in the mid to late rounds in this group.

I believe this will be an especially good class for teams looking for a back who not only can run the ball, but also contribute on special teams in the return game.

1. C.J. Spiller, Clemson: 5’10”, 194 lbs.

After returning to Clemson for his senior year, Spiller put up his best numbers ever, totaling 1,715 total offensive yards and 16 touchdowns. There had been concern in many circles that Spiller was risking too much by remaining in college, given his injury history. Instead Spiller just capped off a career in which he set 31 school records and became the ACC’s career leader in all-purpose yards (7,588).



Spiller is a speed demon who actually runs just as fast with his pads on as he does without. His quickness and burst make him a risk to break a big run at any time. He shows great patience and vision, and he’s deadly once he gets into space.

Spiller is adept at catching the ball as well.



Oh, he’s also a ridiculously good returner.

However, it’s not all sunshine and lollipops.

Spiller isn’t as big as teams like their backs to be, and he’s not the most physical either. As such, he sometimes does not pick up the tough yards, especially in short yardage situations.

Despite being good at catching a pass, how often he’ll be on the field in passing downs could be questionable since he’s not a very good blocker.

With his smallish size, you have to be a bit concerned with durability and how much of a load he could carry.

Despite these things, Spiller’s upside is tremendous, and he will become a very good running back in the NFL. With backs like Maurice Jones-Drew succeeding despite size concerns and Spiller’s special teams explosiveness, some team will take him in the first and be ecstatic they did.  

2. Jahvid Best, Cal: 5’9”, 190

Best is another back whose combination of speed, explosiveness, pass-catching ability, and kick return skills will have teams taking a very long look at him this spring.



The Cal running back shows patience waiting for holes to open up and blocks to form, and then the explosiveness to burst through when they do.

If he needs to run outside, Best’s speed can allow him to turn the corner, and his ability to cut back if need be keeps defenders guessing about where he might go.

Best has good hands but doesn’t run the crispest routes nor run them hard.

Best doesn’t shy away from contact, which in part led to a season-ending concussion.

The concussion is a concern for teams, as is his size. While Best’s speed makes him dangerous in space, he occasionally loses balance in the middle of a move, and this can make him easy to tackle.



Best is another player who has the ability to break giant plays in both the return and run games.

His biggest issue is the ease with which he can be brought down. His occasional balance issues and his struggles to break arm tackles are big concerns. We know he’s tough—he just doesn’t run like it as much as we’d like to see. If he can add some bulk and work on breaking through tacklers, he could become a solid back to pair in a backfield.

As it stands, he’s likely to start out as a third-down back who could develop into more.  

3. Ryan Mathews, Fresno State: 5’11”, 220

Mathews isn’t the fastest back in the draft, but he is a brutal inside runner who can run through tackles and can get downhill fast. He can also get through the hole as well as any other back in the class and make a defender miss when doing so.

Of course, this isn’t always a good thing, as he has a tendency to try to run through a tackler when he’d be better served making the defender miss.



Mathews is much better running inside versus outside, where his lack of top-shelf speed makes it hard for him to gain an edge and turn the corner.

On the other hand, his aggression and physicality serves him exceedingly well in blocking duties, and he’s likely to be able to contribute right away in that facet of the game. It also allows him to wear defenders down as a game progresses and helps him get the tough extra yards at the end of a run.



Mathews should fit in well as part of a tandem backfield, and his ability to punish the opposition would allow him to wear a defense down, setting up a faster, more dynamic back to break loose for big plays.  

4. Toby Gerhart, Stanford: 6’0”, 234

Toby Gerhart is a pretty solid back who possesses all the skills needed to be a solid—though perhaps not elite—running back in the NFL. Gerhart isn’t tremendously explosive, isn’t terribly quick, and doesn’t have elite speed, but what he does bring to the table is a great set of inside running skills.

Gerhart is a very patient runner who will wait for a hole to open up and, when it does, hit it hard. He runs with his shoulders down and makes it hard for tacklers to get a bead on him. It also puts him in a good position to hit defenders hard, and often he can knock a player back or will either run through arm tackles or drag defenders along for a few extra yards.

As I mentioned, Gerhart isn’t known for mind-blowing speed, which can make it hard for him to get the corner on outside runs without blockers out in front.

While he is great at keeping the pads low on inside runs, he pops up and runs too upright when he breaks outside, which also affects his ability to break tackles. When he is able to break one outside, he actually moves a little faster than expected and seems to revert back to the solid form he shows going inside.

Gerhart didn’t catch many balls or lead-block a ton at Stanford, but he has shown he can catch the ball well when asked and has the aggressive nature that you need to block effectively out in front of a runner. He is solid in pass protection, though at times a little inconsistent. With work, he should improve in both areas.

Gerhart is a little raw in several areas but has all the tools to succeed in the NFL.

Like several of the backs on this list, he’ll start out as more of a role player, but when he gains some experience and sands off the rough edges, he has a chance to be a very good back for a long time to come.  

5. Jonathan Dwyer, Georgia Tech: 5’11”, 235

Dwyer is a great inside runner who runs aggressively with the ball and hits the hole hard. He doesn’t easily get knocked off his feet when hit and can break through arm tackles, allowing him to gain plenty of yards after contact.

Dwyer loves to deliver a hit on those in his way, and he will violently go through would-be tacklers. This isn’t to say he can’t go around defenders—he has a quick jump-cut and can change direction quickly if his lane is clogged.

Dwyer did not carry outside much at Georgia Tech, so it’s something he needs to work on. When he did go outside, it was almost exclusively on a pitch. Generally he does that well, but sometimes he has problems securing the ball, which slows him down too much. Dwyer will need to work hard to improve that aspect of his game once in the NFL.

He’ll also need to up his blocking skills, both on run and pass plays. He stays often too upright in pass blocking, allowing himself to be pushed backwards, and even when he is doing it well, he is way too inconsistent. He barely blocked in the run game at all, so he’s got just as much work to do, though his aggression running the ball bodes well for his potential.

I think Dwyer has the potential to be a very good back at the next level. However, right now he’s pretty one-dimensional. He’s not a great blocker, hasn’t had much experience running outside, and isn’t an experienced pass catcher. Also, his hard-charging playing style causes some concerns for his durability long-term.

I’m bullish on him overall though and think that he has what it takes to become a complete back who can wear them down inside and then finish the defense off late in the game.  

6. Montario Hardesty, Tennessee: 5’10”, 204

A fifth-year senior who only started one season at Tennessee, Hardesty is a natural athlete who had issues with injuries through much of his college career. He runs aggressively, showing good vision and pretty good ball skills. Hardesty is a hard worker and has yet to reach his potential.

Aside from durability concerns, Hardesty is quicker than he is fast and isn’t going to run away from defenders for big plays. He also runs a bit upright, which adds to his injury issues and makes it harder for him make tacklers miss.

With his raw physical tools, Hardesty has upside yet to be fulfilled, but his injury history and limited track record make it hard to say what his chances are to reach that potential.

My feeling is that if a team is patient with him, he will develop into a very nice back to pair with another player in the backfield. Where he will probably be chosen (sometime at the back end of Round Three or later) should make him a good value for a team.  

7. Charles Scott, LSU: 5’11”, 239

Scott is another guy in this class who is a very good inside runner. He is a very strong runner who can break tackles and gain yardage after contact. He hits the hole hard and will hit tacklers hard if they get in his way. If he doesn’t flat-out knock the guy over, he’ll drag him for an extra yard or two.



He’s not terribly fast and doesn’t have great explosiveness, so he isn’t running away or past anyone very often. He doesn’t have a great deal of blocking experience and isn’t very useful in the passing game catching the ball either.



Scott has the size and attitude to be a very effective back who can wear down defenses and punish them late in games.

There are a few worries because of a broken collarbone, though I really think it’s getting more focus than it should. Before the collarbone, he was fine, and the focus on it reminds me of the over-hyping of Adrian Peterson’s collarbone. Bear in mind that I'm NOT saying he’s Adrian Peterson—just that sometimes people focus on small things and make them big.

If it isn’t healed, he’ll drop—but he’s not injury-prone in my mind.



Scott is a guy who has the potential to carry the ball quite a few times. Although he has a few things to work out with good Combine and Pro Day efforts, he could easily move up this list. I think he will improve to become a very good every-down back.  

8. Joe McKnight, USC: 6’0”, 190

Joe McKnight is a tremendous athlete and brings explosive speed with a good top end to the table. He’s sudden, able to cut on a dime, and blows through holes even when they aren’t too big. His acceleration is incredible, and he can get to the corner ahead of defenders rushing to meet him.

On the downside, McKnight isn’t ideal in either size, and because of it, he had to fight through a ton of small nagging injuries his whole career. He tends to dance a little too much and lacks aggression when he runs. McKnight also tries to run outside way too much when a hole isn’t quickly found, so he needs to work on his patience and wait for a space to form, or at least do a better job of following his blockers.

Despite being fairly elusive, McKnight struggles to gain many yards after contact. He runs too upright, which will add to his durability concerns. All of this makes it difficult for him to gain good yards after first contact. He will also need to work very hard to improve his blocking skills, which are incredibly raw. He has also been known to cough the ball up.  

McKnight has a lot of upside, and I feel that he would have been better served by remaining in college one more year.

While there are questions about his durability and size, I believe his biggest problem is his lack of patience. Not waiting for a hole to open, not waiting for his blockers to line up, running anxious and out of control—all of these things can be corrected, and I believe McKnight can overcome them.

Meanwhile, his speed and elusiveness can allow him to provide value in the return game while a team works with him on his issues.   

9. LeGarrette Blount, Oregon: 6’0”, 239

Blount is a big, strong back who will bruise defenders as he runs the ball. While he is a heavy back, Blount shows more agility than one expects from him. While not blazing fast, he is quick in making his cuts, though he lacks overall explosiveness.  

Blount has a tendency to run a bit too upright at times, which can hinder his ability to break tackles and leaves him open to some big hits.

He isn’t much of a pass catcher, and I’m not convinced this is an area of his game that will ever improve. He can block, so he might see work on third down, but knowing he is a not a pass-catching back might limit the team utilizing him thusly and allow a defense to ignore a facet of the offensive unit on the field.  

But that is all minor compared to the biggest question facing Blount: his ill-considered punch at a Boise State player post-game and his hotheaded jawing with the home crowd.

It’s one thing to show aggression in your game by fighting for every single inch and bashing opposing defenses with your body. It’s a completely other thing when you show your aggression by cold-cocking other players and having to be dragged away from opposing fans.



Blount has already begun repairing his reputation by handling his suspension well and then honestly answering questions at both the Senior Bowl and Scouting Combine. However, he will continue to face tough scrutiny by teams worried that even a mid-round investment could be wasted if he loses his cool either on the field or off.

It’s hard to say how much headway Blount has made against his character ding, but everything I have heard so far has been good, and it sounds like he has been genuinely contrite. If he can convince teams like he is convincing me, I think he could be paired very nicely with a smaller, more agile back and be a very good addition to a team's run game.  

10. Anthony Dixon, Mississippi State: 6’0.625”, 239

Every NFL draft season we talk about whether various players coming out of college are able to "carry the full load" because they split carries in their school’s backfield or succeeded against

.

Dixon doesn’t have that problem.

The running back from State was the bell cow for his offense, carrying the ball 910 times in four years for a total of 4,233 yards and 42 touchdowns. Dixon was incredibly productive and proved he could be depended upon to tote the rock often.



A truly huge back, Dixon excels in short-yardage and goal-line situations. He has a nice burst and is able to hit a hole quick and has no compunction about dropping his shoulders and lowering the boom on a defender.

With his size, Dixon will often carry defenders for extra yards as well. Dixon is rock solid in the pass game, having caught 56 passes for 449 yards and averaging 8.0 yards per catch.



Dixon isn’t the fastest back in the draft and isn’t going to win any foot races. He won’t be a home run-hitting back, but he can get the tough yards and be a consistent force in the run game.

He could very well be responsible for a large number of carries at the pro level. In a league where teams often hold onto more than one running back, Dixon offers a team the option to not only have a big bruising back to wear defenses down for a smaller back, but also become a full-time back if a team needed him to.

That ends Part One of my running back analysis for the 2010 draft. Check out Part 2 http://bleacherreport.com/articles/370305-2010-nfl-draft-running-back-analysis-part-2