2010 Bracketology: The Final Four Is Set

My brother created a formula to find the best teams in the tournament, taking these four factors into account:

Overall winning percentage, winning percentage versus top 25 teams, record in their last ten games, and  RPI.

The four best teams in the tournament were Kansas, Kentucky, New Mexico and Syracuse.

Although his system was 0-4 for the Final Four, it did pick a lot of the first and second round games correctly. Robert Morris was not that far behind Villanova, and that game went into overtime.

He likes that system, and will give the RPI less weight next year, instead adding three point percentage to make five factors.

Here was my bracketology system that produced Ohio State, Butler, Kentucky and Duke as my Final Four teams:

Be leery of the overall number one: Everyone picked Kansas, and I am a Ohio State fan, so I went against the grain.

The George Mason effect: Look for the best team outside of the BCS conferences.

I chose Butler because they were really good all year and they had Syracuse in their bracket.

Quick side note: I picked the Orange to win it all in 2005 and they lost in the first round, so I pick them to lose early now.

Give me talent: I chose Kentucky because they were so good on paper.

Does Duke have an easy path? It was pretty smooth sailing for Duke this year. When Baylor took a lead in the second half, couldn't you feel the selection committee kicking themselves for not putting New Mexico in the South as the three seed?

The overall number one seed fell in the second round, but teams from Ohio are just plain cursed. Ohio State and Xavier both gave max effort, and they both fell short. 

The George Mason effect came to be this year, but it might be another few years before we see it again.

Kentucky and all of that talent is now going to the NBA and not Indy.

And as Pete Gillen once said: 'Duke is Duke, they are on TV more than Leave it to Beaver reruns.'

The Midwest Region had a five seed playing a six seed in the regional final, which is what a busted bracket looks like. With six appearances in the last 12 years, the NCAA should call it Tom Izzo presents The Final Four.

Butler did not have the depth of talent that Syracuse and Kansas State did. The Bulldogs fell behind in the second half of both games. What they did have was superb execution and astounding resolve to take the lead back in both games on their way to home-court advantage in the Final Four.

John Calipari can recruit with anyone, but he sure does get outcoached in big games. Bob Huggins got him this year, Mike Anderson last year, and Bill Self in the 2008 championship game.

And Duke is Duke, as Coach K makes his 11th appearance in the Final Four. The NCAA could call it Tom Izzo presents a Coach K production of the Final Four.

I am in first place in my Yahoo group through talkbrick.com, but I can't win. I am done scoring and one person beneath me has Duke in the final game while another one has West Virginia in the final game, so once that game ends, I lose the top spot.

Just like the Ohio teams I root for, I get an E for Effort while someone else wins it all.

Michigan State and West Virginia overcame injuries to get to the Final Four. Butler is a nice story and has a good look at a title. The smart money is on Duke to win it all.

Mike Krzyzewski has his most complete team in the past five years, as he looks for his fourth national championship. Jon Scheyer looks like he shot his way out of his slump.

Nolan Smith is playing his best ball of the season with 29 points in the win over Baylor. Kyle Singler and Lance Thomas lead the front-court that had been Duke's Achilles heel in prior tournament runs that fell short.

After all of the upsets to get us here, it looks like Duke is the team to beat.