NHL's Final Two Weeks: Who's In, Who's Out of Stanley Cup Playoff Picture

With exactly two weeks left in the regular season, the race for the eight playoff spots has almost sorted itself out completely. 

In the Western Conference, the playoff contenders are virtually settled; only the first round matchups remain in question.

San Jose and Chicago continue jockeying for first place in the West, with Phoenix having an outside shot to grab the Pacific Division crown and one of the top two seeds if San Jose falters.

Vancouver is set as the third seed, while Nashville, Detroit, and Los Angeles all play musical chairs in the fifth, sixth, and seventh positions.  Colorado sits in the last playoff berth, six points ahead of Calgary.  

With eight games remaining, the magic number for the Avalanche to clinch the final spot in the NHL’s second season is any combination of five Colorado wins or Calgary losses.  The Flame’s remaining schedule includes games against the Capitals plus all four top teams in the West, so their demise seems all but assured.  

The other six teams in the West have no chance at this point.  Columbus and Edmonton are already eliminated mathematically. Dallas, St. Louis, Anaheim, or Minnesota each will be done for with only two or three wins by the teams already in playoff position. 

In the Eastern Conference, the playoff picture is not so clear.

Five teams are locks to make the playoffs.  Washington, New Jersey, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and Ottawa are likely to finish in that order (although the Devils and Penguins may yet swap places before the season is finished). 

The five teams at the bottom are completely out of it: New York Islanders, Tampa Bay, Florida, Carolina, and Toronto. None have mathematically been eliminated yet, but each upcoming loss brings them closer to golfing season. Florida has a whisper of a chance should they win their final eight games in a row, but that’s unlikely to happen.

Occupying spots six to 10 in the East are five teams—none of whom seems very eager to prove themselves worthy of the final three playoff spots.  

In losing to New Jersey on Saturday, Montreal gave up an opportunity to put some distance between themselves and the pack. They currently sit in sixth position with 82 points but have only six games left to play. While the Habs were hot coming off the Olympic break, going 7-1-0 in the first half of March, they have dropped four of their last five. Unless the Canadiens win two of their upcoming three games against Carolina, Philadelphia, and Buffalo, they put themselves at risk to fall out of playoff contention in the final week.

In the seventh spot, with 80 points and eight games remaining, Boston now has the best opportunity to surge ahead. However, their record in March (7-6-1) is barely over 50 percent, and they’ve been averaging fewer than three goals per game.  Five of their remaining eight games are against the Capitals, Devils, and Sabres. It’s going to be a difficult haul for the Bruins.

Philadelphia sits in the eight and final playoff spot, also with 80 points but one fewer game remaining than Boston.  Three of their next four games are against tough opponents: the Devils, Canadiens, and Red Wings.  Their playoff hopes will likely come down to the last two games of the season against the Rangers.

Once they traded Kovalchuk, everyone assumed that Atlanta had thrown in the towel for 2010. Losing six in a row early in March all but confirmed their demise  However, the Thrashers have earned points in seven of their last eight, and sit only two games out of eight place, with 78 points and seven games remaining.

To have a chance, they absolutely must win their next two outings against the Hurricanes and Leafs, because in their final five games, the Thrash face the Caps twice, the Pens twice, and the Devils. 

After making the playoffs each of the past four years, the Rangers seem determined to excuse themselves this year. They’ve not played well down the stretch, losing eight of 13 thus far in March and earning only 13 of 26 available standings points.

To make the playoffs, the Rangers need a strong showing in their final seven games; their 77 points put them three behind Philadelphia. The schedule, however, plays in their favor. Four of their next five games are against teams below them in the standings. They may be able to sneak into the eighth spot if they sweep their final home and away series with the Flyers.