Stacked UFC 111 Card Draws Crowds Across the Hudson

The UFC has yet to receive the blessing from the NY state legislative body to promote its wares on state territory, so it set up its big top within 15 miles of the island of Manhattan in New Jersey and deprived the state of much needed taxation revenue in the process.

The state of NY is one of the few remaining legislatures that have yet to grant MMA any play on their territory. And the UFC made sure to stack its teaser across the bridge as much as it could to drive its point home.

The main card’s main event will feature the Canadian fighter George St-Pierre (19-2), the reigning WW champ, defend his title against the Englishman Dan Hardy (23-6-1). St-Pierre’s incredible arsenal and outstanding winning streak has him going into the Octagon a heavy favourite (-700).

Hardy’s decision victories over Marcus Davis and Mike Swick landed him a shot at the top spot since the current champ, GSP, had a kick at all the best contenders so far. Hardy (+450) will have worked a lot on his take down defense, but GSP’s overwhelming dominance in all aspects of the game make this one, though always exciting and technically amazing, very predictable. GSP TKOs Hardy in the 3rd.

The lead-up to the main event has two HW fighters contending for the interim HW title, as the division’s current champion Brock Lesnar gets back to health following battles against mononucleosis and diverticulitis in the fall of '09.

Frank Mir (-155) is the slight favourite against Shane Carwin (+125). Carwin’s striking power is jaw-dropping, literally. Though he possesses an amazing 11-0 record, no one has tested him beyond the opening minutes of the first stanza. Mir (13-4) has greatly improved his striking, and must have worked a lot on his take down defense, expecting his colossal wrestling opponent to attempt to pound him through the mat when opportunity knocks. Mir’s experience and diversified skill set should have him prevail by TKO over Carwin in the later rounds, maybe the third. If not, Mir should still manage to win a decision.

The LW bout between Kurt Pellegrino (14-4) and Fabricio Camoes (10-4-1) will make for horizontal viewing as Pellegrino’s strengths don’t include his standup game and his opponent happens to be one of many Brazilian guys holding a black belt in BJJ. Pellegrino (-230) is the favourite against Camoes (+180), as it’s expected that his ground and pound will test Camoes’ mettle.

It remains to be seen whether Pellegrino will be able to fend off a submission artist of the caliber of Camoes. Camoes might attempt to sub Pellegrino, but the latter’s strength should allow him to win a decision, resulting in a dull 15 minutes of MMA viewing.  

The last minute replacement bout opposing WW Jon Fitch (21-3-1) to Ben Saunders (8-1-2) might also go the distance, if Fitch’s hard work and experience have anything to say about it. This is Saunders’ biggest challenge, and odd makers seem to have taken this into consideration (that and rankings) when they posted lines making Fitch a reliable favourite (-350) against Saunders (+250).

Fitch’s biggest problem might be his own propensity to win fights instead of finishing them. It would be a surprise were he not to win a UD over Saunders.

Lastly, the other LW bout featured on the main card will pit Mark Bocek (8-2) to Jim Miller (16-2). Miller’s ground game and take down defense will be put on display early as Bocek shoots fast and strangleholds his opponents in succinct fashion.

A bit surprisingly, Miller is the overwhelming favourite (-400) against Bocek (+300). This fight, as well as the Mir vs. Carwin one, would appear to be the most advantageous with regards to main card betting lines. Bocek subs Miller in the 3rd.

Lines from Betus.com

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