Early Projection: The 2010-11 San Antonio Spurs

In the coming weeks  the 2009-10 NBA regular season will come to an end. Soon after teams will begin preparation for the 2010-11 season. What might the Spurs roster look like at the start of next season? The Spurs pushed their chips all in with the acquisitions of Antonio McDyess and Richard Jefferson. The ensuing cost  for the 2009-10 roster at the end of the season will be in the vicinity of $80 to $90 million and this cost may be a difficult pill to swallow if the Spurs fail to make it to the conference finals as predicted by so many pundits at the start of this season. Regardless of the end result of the 2009-10 campaign, one thing is for certain, the San Antonio Spurs will be in cost savings mode next year as they begin the rebuilding process in the waning years of their all-star forward and face of the franchise, Tim Duncan.

What will the San Antonio Spurs roster look like next season? There are 6 players under contract and it is almost a sure bet that all six will start the season in silver and black. They are Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Antonio McDyess, Dejuan Blair, George Hill and Richard Jefferson. Their combined salaries (54.3millon) will more than likely exceed the projected salary cap of 53 million. In order to remain competitive in the western conference, it is a no brainer that the Spurs must re-sign Manu Ginobili, especially in light of his play since the all-star break.   Manu deserves a reasonable contract extension and if the Spurs are smart they will make sure the ink dries before the end of the regular season. That being said, let’s add another 8 million, the projected annual cost of Ginobili’s new contract to the projected roster for 2010 bringing the team’s salary to 62.3 million for seven players.

The penalty threshold is usually $10-12 million above the salary threshold. For example, the 2009-10 salary cap was set at 57.7 million and the tax cap was set at 69.9 million. Every team exceeding the tax cap pays a dollar for dollar penalty. With Ginobili signed and locked into a contract that will hopefully allow him to play out the remainder of his career in silver and black, the Spurs will be at or near the tax cap with 7 players on the roster. Each team is required to have a minimum of 12 players on its active roster and no more than 15 players for the regular season and playoffs. When you consider that the six players currently under contract and Ginobili are the major rotation players it seems highly unlikely that the Spurs will add to their luxury tax bill by bringing in a another player with a high price tag. So, we should expect the Spurs to seek out mostly cheap labor to fill out the remaining roster spots.

The San Antonio Spurs 2010-11 Projected Roster:

• Starters: Tim Duncan, Antonio McDyess, Richard Jefferson, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker
• Key Reserves: Dejuan Blair, George Hill, Tiago Splitter (If the Spurs mid-level exception (5-6 million) is enough to lure him to the NBA).
• Bench: (Most of these players could be signed for less than a million)Ian Mihinmi, Malik Hairston, Cedric Jackson, Garrett Temple and Marcus Haislip.

With the exception of Tiago Splitter, the Spurs 2007 #1 draft pick, all of the others have played for the Spurs this season and have a realistic chance of making team that will start the 2010-11 campaign. However it must be noted that during course of the season, we could see player movement as the Spurs attempt to strengthen their 2011 playoff roster. For instance, some teams might be willing take on Richard Jefferson’s $15 million expiring contract in a trade for one or two young prospects who could come in and contribute right away alongside the Spurs veteran core. In short, look for the Spurs to hold steady throughout the off-season and continue to seek out and develop diamonds in the rough like George Hill. This course of action may not bring them another title in the Tim Duncan era but it will most certainly keep them competitive in the foreseeable future.