Kansas State On Upset Alert?

Kansas State, watch your back ... or back court anyway.  Jordan Crawford's coming and he's looking for the upset by shooting you back to Manhattan.

Me too.  I mean, I don't want to shoot anyone but an upset wouldn't shock me.  Make no mistake, this game is going to be interesting.

I’m looking forward to watching this game to see how Frank Martin handles superstar Musketeer guard Jordan Crawford. If you haven’t had a chance to watch Crawford you need to. Behind Evan Turner, he’s probably the most complete player left in the tournament.

Here are some things to look for tonight.

1) I suspect Martin will put glove-man Dominique Sutton on Jordan Crawford for most of the ballgame. Sutton is athletic enough to stay with Crawford on the perimeter, and he has the size to get to Jordan’s jump shot, which is key because Crawford shoots 40 percent from deep. K-Stater hongabear agrees with me over at Ahearn Alley.

2) Another interesting matchup will be the use of Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente on Xavier’s other two guards Terrell Holloway and Dante Jackson. If the Musketeers had a wing that could move Crawford into the backcourt they could force Frank Martin to play one of his premier offensive players, Jacob Pullen or Clemente, on the talented Crawford.

That matchup would risk getting Pullen in foul trouble or worn down, although it didn’t seem to bother the KSU guard when he squared off with BYU’s Jimmer Fredette. But Pullen will have his hands full chasing the physical Jackson and Clemente will have to keep Holloway out of the lane.

3) The biggest key for the Musketeers is keeping their thin frontcourt out of foul trouble. Xavier really only plays three forwards for significant minutes, with their starting forwards Jason Love and Jamel McLean getting most of the minutes.

Although Jason Love is the better player, McLean’s foul trouble in the first Xavier vs. KSU game was the main reason the Musketeers where dominated on the boards and eventually blown out.

When McLean picked up his 2nd foul with ten minutes to go in the first half of that contest, the Wildcats broke a 10-10 tie and went on a 20-10 run to close out the half. After that, they never looked back.

McLean’s absence allowed the Wildcats to swarm the other post Love and dominate both backboards against the undermanned Musketeers. Whistles will be huge, especially if they go against a paper thin Xavier group.

4) If McLean and Love can stay in the ballgame, then they have a chance to play close to even on the glass and defend Kansas State’s big interior. A stalemate on the interior means Xavier has a real opportunity to pull off the upset with Crawford’s star power. If the KSU frontcourt plays volleyball on the glass, it doesn’t matter how well Crawford plays.

Keep in mind that Xavier was outrebounded by Pittsburgh 39 to 30 in the second round, but they gave up 12 offensive caroms while pulling 9 of their own which led to a minimal possession deficit. They’ll need a similar performance tonight.

Prediction: I think people are making too much of Kansas State’s physicality and athletic ability based on their defensive performance against BYU. There was some fool’s gold in that game in that Jacob Pullen was unconscious shooting the basketball, and BYU only has one true creator on the ball, with Fredette being so dribble dominant.

The Musketeers are much different in the back court. 

Xavier has three creators on the floor to challenge the KSU guards. In contrast to BYU, two of these creators don’t need the ball to be dangerous, considering Crawford and Jackson are comfortable playing off the ball while Holloway handles it. Crawford and Jackson can also take it to the rim when they catch it on the wing, especially with a defender running at them.

The Xavier guards will will be a handful for KSU’s perimeter players if the Musketeer frontcourt can just keep them in the game on the glass.

If Love and McLean can stay on the floor, I like Xavier to jump on Jordan Crawford’s back for the upset.

Unfortunately for XU, that’s a big if.

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Kevin writes the leading college hoops blog March To March.

Follow him on Twitter: @MarchToMarch