UFC 111 Predictions: GSP Reigns Supreme

UFC 111 comes to us just six days after a great card aired on the Versus network, with two top caliber title matches, live from the state of New Jersey.  It’s not all Nets fans and Snooki, it’s the night’s home for the number one pound-for-pound fighter, Georges "Rush" St-Pierre.

My gut tells me that this should be an unpredictable card.

A handful of matches are basically toss ups, that are going to go the distance.  Luckily, I’ve gone 14-6 over the past two UFC cards, 9-1 over the main cards matches which I researched.  So if you’re going to bet on these matches, you have a 50/50 of cashing in off of who I pick.

Georges St.-Pierre vs. Dan Hardy

The Hype: It’s hard to imagine GSP not scoring another impressive victory against Hardy.  Hardy is a good ‘right now’ opponent for Georges, but he’s not the best available opponent.

But since the two best guys already lost to GSP, I guess it seems fitting that they should be fighting each other on this card as well.  Nonetheless, Hardy has a dynamic personality and loves to fight, so we may get a couple of oohs and aahs, but don’t get your heart set on it.

The Match: GSP isn’t going to stand and box with Hardy unless he wants to.

Hardy has to have a thought out, explicit plan in mind if he wants to even think about winning, but even that won’t be enough.  In his interview on Versus last week, St.-Pierre stated he had a plan, so I’m going to take him for that and assume he knows what Hardy’s weaknesses are.

Of course most of know what Hardy’s weaknesses is already, that’s getting into the ring with GSP.

Prediction: GSP, Round Two, Submission (Arm Bar)

Frank Mir Vs. Shane Carwin

The Hype: Finally Carwin gets to fight someone.  It’s been over a year.  Octagon rust anyone?  Well maybe not, because he wasn’t hurt or making movies, but I’m using that against him.

Mir has proven his ability to get destroyed by big gigantic beast-men, but he, himself is now a big whatever I just said after tacking on more weight to max out at 265.

The Match: If Mir wants to win he’s going to have to out maneuver Carwin with skills that aren’t limited to just one discipline.  Luckily, Mir is experienced enough to do just that.  He’ll have to rely on taking Carwin off his game with his BJJ, finding openings with boxing, and using wrestling defense.

Carwin isn’t going to surprise the crowd with a secret newfound  NAGA resume, so if Mir can disrupt Carwin by disallowing Shane to fire at will, Frank can win.  He just needs to make sure he doesn’t walk into a measured shot by Carwin.

Prediction: Mir—Decision (Split)

Jake Ellenberger Vs. Ben Saunders

The Hype: Personally I’m surprised this is the No. 3 match on the card.  The UFC must know something I don’t here.  There isn’t a lot of hype surrounding this match.  It’s just going to be two decent guys squaring off in a match to climb the ladder. 

The Match: This should be the Fight of the Night.  You have Ellenberger who is a tenacious as they come, taking on Saunders who has a definite physical advantage with his size and reach.

One thing that really impressed me with Saunders fight against Marcus Davis was the timing of his counter punches.  He really laid into Davis a couple of times when Marcus was supposedly on the offensive.

I’d put Ellenberger a step above Davis in overall skills, yet similar, meaning Saunders should still be able to capitalize in the same areas.  The areas being timing, his counter punches, then moving to the offensive, clinching and delivering those Killa knees.

If Ellenberger is going to win, he needs to dictate the terms of the match.  He’ll have to fight it exactly how he wants otherwise he’ll find himself at a physical disadvantage and he’ll be on the defensive all night long (even when coming forward). 

Prediction:  Saunders, Round Three—KO (Knee)

Jon Fitch Vs. Thiago Alves

The Hype: This is a “on paper” dream where you can rifle off stat after stat about how good these guys are.

Fitch lost to GSP in 2008, his previous loss was in 2002.  That’s before we invaded Iraq if you’re having trouble picturing how the world was then.  Alves also lost to GSP, but to Fitch too (the 11th victory of Fitch’s amazing sixteen fight win streak, eight of which were in the UFC).

The only other useful stat is that my money is on a decision here, because Fitch has had six straight in a row and Alves two.

The Match: This match has been cancelled, so if Fitch does fight, I’m picking him regardless.

Prediction: Fitch—Decision (Unanimous)

Jim Miller Vs. Mark Bocek

The Hype: Jim Miller will be champion one day.

It’s going to take awhile and may only truly happen in UFC Undisputed: 2010, but I’ve always been a big fan of his.  He has great BJJ (better than Bocek’s) and deserves a shot against a more serious contender after taking out Bocek.

Bocek is in for a rude awakening here.  He has not won against anyone of prestige in his career, so if he is not thinking himself overmatched here.

Of course, Miller isn’t a power puncher and you could easily tell me he hasn’t beaten anyone of prestige either, let alone remind me, Mark is Gracie trained, but still, Miller will turn a lot of heads with the type intangibles that I don’t have any explanation for.

The Match: New Jersey is now named Decision City after another one goes to the cards.

We are going to be bored here.

Bored in the sense that we will see a lot of jockeying for position with minimal hard hitting striking.  So after all the hype I did for Miller, my hopes will be dashed as he doesn’t showcase anything spectacular, but still takes the next step towards a title shot.

Prediction: Miller—Decision (Unanimous)
 

PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV)
•    Nate Diaz vs. Rory Markham
•    Ricardo Almeida vs. Matt Brown
PRELIMINARY CARD (Un-aired)
•    Fabricio Camoes vs. Kurt Pellegrino
•    Jared Hamman vs. Rodney Wallace
•    Tomasz Drwal vs. Rousimar Palhares
•    Matthew Riddle vs. Greg Soto