Washington-West Virginia: NCAA East Regional Semifinal Preview

East versus West. Forwards versus guards. Back to the basket power basketball versus open floor, one pass, and shoot breakneck pace.

This is what we’ll get Thursday night in the first game of the East Regional, when the perimeter athleticism of the Washington Huskies squares off against a bruising West Virginia Mountaineer squad.

These two teams couldn’t be any more different—so it stands to reason that whichever team can cover up its warts the best will likely move on to the regional final.

For Washington, the warts start in the frontcourt, where the Huskies lack the size and power to control the backboards and threaten the paint.

Out of Washington’s nine losses this season, they were out-rebounded or played even on the backboards in eight of them. Unfortunately for the Huskies, two of the nine losses came against the USC Trojans, the one team on UW’s schedule that most resembles the Mountaineers.

Like the Mountaineers, the Trojans have shied away from the popular three guard look and have opted to get as much size and athleticism on the floor as possible, playing four forwards and a single guard.

As for the Mountaineers’ wart, they lack the pure guard play that Isiah Thomas and Venoy Overton bring for the Huskies, especially now that Darryl Bryant is injured.

This leaves West Virginia somewhat susceptible to pressure on offense, leading to the occasional turnover, and they’ll struggle to stay in front of the elite quickness of Thomas and Overton on defense.

Against the guard-centric teams the Mountaineers have faced in the Big East Conference—Marquette and then Villanova twice—the Mountaineers are 2-1, but struggled to protect the basketball, averaging 14 turnovers in those three games.

Keys for Washington

1) Pace

The Huskies have a huge advantage in the backcourt with quickness and ball handling so they should be able to dictate the pace on offense.

I’d run "miss or make" if I were Coach Romar. Once West Virginia sets its defense, whether it’s man or zone, Washington is going to have a tougher time finding clean looks, and they’ll rarely get second chance points. In the open floor, their quickness advantage will be magnified.

2) Pack Your Zone Offense

West Virginia’s backcourt of Da'Sean Butler and Joe Mazzulla won’t be able to stay in front of Thomas and Overton, so I’d expect some active zone with man principles or sagging man-to-man from the Mountaineers. Zone and soft-man coverage take advantage of WVU’s size, while minimizing its lack of pure quickness.

3) Stay in Front

As in: Stay in front of the Mountaineer ball handlers and cutters—don’t gamble. WVU makes a living at the foul line because all of its players are big, athletic, and can finish at the rim. If the Mountaineers want to shoot over the top let them, with the exception of Mazzulla and perhaps Butler.

The nightmare scenario for the Huskies is one of Quincy Pondexter or fellow big man Matthew Bryan-Amaning getting in early foul trouble because the Mountaineer drivers or cutters get in the lane and are able to take it right to the chest of the Husky forwards. If one of those two is saddled with foul trouble, the Huskies are done on the backboards and likely done in the game.

Keys for the Mountaineers

1) Take Care of the Basketball

This seems like a no-brainer, but hear me out. In a game that’s likely to be uptempo, both ends of the floor become more interconnected. This means that a turnover not only costs you possession, but, against a team like Washington, it’s going to cost you points.

Additionally, with the advantage that West Virginia has on the offensive glass in this game, a turnover might cost you more than a single possession—it may cost you that second and third chance bucket that offensive rebounding affords you. Simply getting the ball up on the rim is a likely win for the Mountaineers whether it goes in or not.

Anything but a turnover.

2) Keep Overton and Thomas out of the Lane

Washington has too many athletic finishers for the Mountaineers to survive help-and-recover situations that are started by Overton or Thomas blow-bys. So WVU needs to soften its pressure in the man-to-man or switch to zone.

I’d go with a zone that identifies Thomas as the only credible deep shooter and then play everyone else soft until they can prove they can knock down a perimeter shot or two.

3) Run Offense through Butler but Get Him off the ball

If Washington decides to man the Mountaineers that means the 5′10″ Overton or the 5′9″ Thomas will have to tag Da'Sean Butler, who goes 6′4″ with the strength of a power forward.

If I'm Huggins—I take Butler off the ball in half-court possessions, run him through some weak-side screens, and then get him the ball around the bucket. This will force the Huskies to declare help and then Butler, who’s a very good passer, can find open teammates with a double team. Who says your point guard needs the ball?

Also, look for Butler on some 1-4 low looks where he’s got the ball at the top of the key and his four teammates lineup flat along the baseline. Isolation looks like these enable Butler to back down his smaller defender without the fear of a quick double.

Key for Both Teams

Really, there’s one: officiating. A loosely called game that allows the Mountaineers to hand check, dislodge posts, and bang under the rim is a huge advantage to West Virginia and their size.

A tightly called game that makes WVU play honest against Washington’s water bug backcourt likely means the Huskies will live at the foul line.

So with that in mind, it’s important that both coaches work the officials early and often. Don’t be surprised to see both Huggins and Romar get a tech in this game, as this is probably the most important variable going into contest. Each coach knows it, and will work the officials accordingly.

As for a prediction. Tell me who hides their warts the best. If Washington can maintain contact on the backboards, they win. If WVU can keep the turnovers at 10 or under, they probably win.

It’ll be a fun start to an exciting weekend regardless.

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Kevin writes the leading college hoops blog March To March.

Follow him on Twitter: @MarchToMarch