Houston Rockets in the Playoffs? Crazier Things Have Happened

The Rockets probably have as good of a chance of getting a top five pick in the upcoming 2010 NBA draft as they do of making the playoffs.

If you were holding on to hopes that the Rockets would make the playoffs in February, then you are probably down to your last breath come late March. I don’t think the Rockets have enough to make the playoffs this year, but then again the Rockets are pretty good at proving people wrong.

The thing about this group of over-achieving Rockets is that it is hard to say what exactly needs to happen for them to win.

Sometimes I want to say that if Luis Scola gets a double-double, or Aaron Brooks gets more than seven assists, then the Rockets will win. Maybe it’s that they have to hold their opponent under 43 percent shooting, or hold them to under 100 points to pull out a victory.

Just when you think there is some correlation between the numbers, they go out and lose a game to the Detroit Pistons where Kevin Martin, Aaron Brooks, and Luis Scola all play great games.

That’s the thing about these Rockets. They are so sporadic and it is really hard to say which way is the best way for them to win.

They can win grind it out overtime games, they can win games they are suppose to lose, they can win games coming off back to backs, and then again they can also lose games against Indiana on three days’ rest.

There really is no telling what Houston will do but if they plan on sneaking into the last spot in the Western Conference, they at least need these five things to happen:

1. Execution Down the Stretch

The first thing that needs to happen is the Rockets have to execute offensively and defensively at the end of games. The Rockets have only lost six games by more than ten points. They are usually competing in every game but don’t have what it takes to close them out. They don’t have someone they can give the ball to down the stretch.

We have all witnessed the final minutes of a Rockets game this season when Aaron brooks has the ball at the top of the key and tries to penetrate to the bucket and make something happen.  There are times when Aaron has delivered, but most of the time we go home wishing that we had a superstar who could deliver in the clutch.

It could be youth, leadership, or a number of things but no matter what the excuse, we still can’t execute down the stretch. The only way that the Rockets are going to be able to slide into the 8th spot in the Western Conference is if they can find the secret recipe at the end of games.

It worked against the Knicks but that isn’t saying much.

 

2. Different Players Stepping Up

In the beginning of this season, the Rockets were a team defined by different players stepping up and making plays to win games. In the first five games of the season, the Rockets had three different leading scorers. We had a bunch of new pieces and we didn’t know how they were going to play without Yao Ming, but they always found ways to get it done.

We all remember what Charles Barkley said about how horrible this team would be. However, the Rockets proved a lot of critics wrong this season.  The reason they were able to prove so many people wrong is because they just played hard every night and had a different player stepping up every game.  

One night it was Carl Landry deciding to take over in the 4th quarter.

Another night it was Aaron Brooks career high 43 points against the Timberwolves.

Another example could be Kyle Lowry’s performance against the Dallas Mavericks in overtime, or maybe even Shane Battier’s tie-breaking three pointer late in the game against the Mavs right before the New Year.

No matter what the situation called for it seemed like we had different players stepping up on different nights. If Aaron or Luis struggled, Ariza or Landry would come through with big performances. We have to continue to get players to step up and make contributions when needed if these Rockets have any chance left.

 

3. Win Games They are Expected to Lose

The Rockets are 19-24 against teams .500 or better. That stat really doesn’t sit well when I look at the remainder of our schedule. The Rockets have 13 games remaining, and of those 13 games, they will have to face the Lakers, Jazz, Thunder, Spurs, Celtics, and the Suns. Those are all tough games where many people won’t give us a chance to win but we have to at least pull out four or five of those games in order to have any kind of shot at making the playoffs.  

We have seen it before during this season with wins against the Lakers, Mavs, Nuggets, Spurs, and even the Cavaliers. The Rockets are very capable of competing with any team in the league but they have to find a way to win some of these games down the stretch. We have beaten each of the tough teams we will face down the stretch at least once this season with the exception of the Celtics and the Suns.

 

4. An Inspired Backcourt

There is no doubt that with the new-look Rockets, a good percentage of their points are going to come from the likes of Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin. We need those guys on the floor, but at the same time both of them can be a liability on the defensive end.

It seems like every time a decent point guard goes up against Aaron Brooks, he makes him look like an All-Star. If the Rockets are going to sneak into the playoffs, Brooks and Martin have to do a better job on the defensive end of the floor. I’m not asking them to shut down anyone, just stay in front of their man and keep their opponents out of the paint.

Martin and Brooks have to play inspired basketball down the stretch. They are our two main sources of scoring and they have to lead this team offensively. The Rockets can’t afford to go through these offensive stalemates because they are a bad defensive team. If they had better defense, then they could afford to stall on the offensive end. If Aaron and Kevin are in the game, they need to be making plays, scoring points, and giving effort on the defensive end.

5. A lot of Help Needed

Let’s be honest for a second.  Even if the Rockets do all of the above, there is still no way they will make the playoffs. The only legitimate shot the Rockets have of making the playoffs is getting a little help from the basketball Gods. The Rockets are currently five games out of the 8th spot in the Western Conference. They are trying to catch teams that are playing above .500 basketball with less than 13 games remaining for most of them.

Somehow we need any one of the playoff teams ahead of us to go on a terrible losing streak and start playing below .500 basketball.  Although Portland has the most losses, they probably have the easiest road down the stretch. That leaves us with Oklahoma City and the San Antonio Spurs.

Just imagine for a second that the Rockets were able to win 11 of their remaining 13 games. That would give us a record of 47-35. San Antonio and Oklahoma City are both currently at 42-27 with 13 games remaining. Although both have a tough schedule remaining, we would still need one of those teams to lose eight of their last 13 games.

 

In Conclusion:

Don’t think for a second that this season was a waste. These Rockets had a great season and gave a lot of people reasons to cheer for the team with no All-Stars, but in the end, even the most avid fan knew it would be a long shot for this team to smell the playoffs.

We developed some of our young guys that will probably be used to bring some All-Star caliber players to Houston. We have already started to see that happen with the Rockets shipping Carl Landry to Sacramento and acquiring a bunch of assets in return to use to rebuild a championship-caliber team. Although it will be sad to see these hard-working, fan favorite players leave, hopefully the end product will result in a championship.

Generously speaking, the Rockets could still finish the season with anywhere from 42 to 44 wins but I don’t think it will be enough.  That is not bad for a team that had the smallest starting point guard and center in the league. Not a lot was expected from this team before the season began but the fact that we can even contemplate a playoff scenario is great for this organization.

Well, you never know, I could be wrong. Maybe the Rockets reel off a 13 game winning streak, Tim Duncan breaks his leg, and Kevin Durant goes back to college.

Maybe we sneak into the playoffs, knock off the Lakers, and win a championship without one All-Star on the roster. Crazier things have happened. All I know is if you would have told Daryl Morey that at the end of the season, the Rockets would have a slim chance of making the playoffs, I think he might have said, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance .”