UFC 111 Breakdowns and Predictions
On March 27th, the UFC will take Newark, New Jersey by storm with this explosive card. Three fights on this card could easily headline any PPV. As long as we don’t see wannabe "guidos" fist-pumping in the crowd, it should be a great night.
This was a tough card to breakdown. It’s an event ripe for potential upsets. Once again, I encourage you to read my breakdowns to see why I made the predictions that I made. At the end of the breakdowns, I will have my official picks and fight honors listed. Thanks for reading. Enjoy the fights!
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Georges "Rush" St. Pierre Vs. Dan "The Outlaw" Hardy
Key Victories :
GSP (B.J. Penn, Thiago Alves, Jon Fitch, Matt Hughes, Josh Koscheck, Sean Sherk, Karo Parisyan, "Mayhem" Miller, Matt Serra, Frank Trigg)
Hardy (Mike Swick, Marcus Davis, Akihiro Gono)
Forecast :
On paper, this looks about as fair as a man wrestling a gorilla…unless its Fedor. In the UFC 111 main event, Dan Hardy will challenge GSP for the UFC Welterweight Championship. Many believe GSP has the better striking, BJJ, wrestling, cardio, speed, strength, looks, Abs, and car. According to some, Dan Hardy should cut off his Mohawk. It could prove a liability when GSP karate kicks it into the crowd. While we get our laughs and jeers at the expense of Dan Hardy, he soaks it all in and waits confidently. How many times have we seen the unthinkable happen in this sport?
With that said, GSP is a huge favorite coming into this fight. He has beaten and dominated the best. I believe Georges St. Pierre is the most well-rounded Mixed Martial Artist on the planet. How many fighters can you truly say are great in every aspect of the sport? With a mixture of kicks, punches, and elbows, GSP has well-rounded striking. He is quite possibly the best MMA wrestler in the sport. He is also a black belt in BJJ and a third degree black belt in Kyokushin.
Despite having all the talent in the world, Dan Hardy hints at GSP missing one important ingredient….heart. In a UFC interview, Hardy calls himself a "fighter" and GSP an "athlete". Don’t let his jokester image fool you. When it comes fight time, Dan Hardy is all business. Out of his 24 victories, half have ended by KO. Born with a solid chin, Hardy is a tenacious striker with dynamite in both hands. If he lands cleanly, GSP could be taking a serious nap. A silenced crowd would then have to look on as Hardy flips them off screaming I told you so.
Keys to Victory :
There is no secret game plan or magic formula for Dan Hardy to win this fight. He knows what he needs to do. With virtually everyone calling for his untimely demise, Hardy needs to be smart about the way he approaches this fight. People seem to have the misconception that Dan Hardy is an overly aggressive striker.
While aggressive at times, Hardy truly shines in his ability to counter his opponents. His counter right cross had Mike Swick shuffling around like a long lost member of the Jabberwockies. In contrast, GSP is a very aggressive fighter. He loves to take center octagon and dictate the action. This is a good thing for Dan Hardy. He will have his opportunity to counter in this fight. If one of those counters lands, it could mean goodnight GSP.
I know many of you are scratching heads right now. Shouldn’t Hardy just blitz GSP? It worked for Serra! It could work for him! You could be right. Hardy could charge in and land something significant to end the fight. GSP’s takedowns provide a stern roadblock for that strategy. If Hardy bull rushes, he opens himself up to being easily taken down or knocked out. It’s a double edged sword in terms of strategy.
Back to the counterpunching, GSP loves to throw unorthodox maneuvers like the Superman punch. He throws that same punch multiple times in every fight. That right cross of Hardy’s and GSP’s exposed chin seem like a match made in heaven. Likewise, a well-placed knee could be a great solution to a GSP takedown. It would be a risky. If Hardy misses, he’ll certainly be eating canvas.
GSP should come out and do what he does best…mix things up and keep his opponent guessing. It isn't necessary for him to take this fight to the ground. I believe he could win on the feet. Due to the Serra loss, there will always be talk about GSP’s chin. It’s a shame because that loss had more to do with Serra executing a well-timed punch in the perfect spot. People get caught in this sport all the time.
I really liked Swick’s game plan against Hardy. He pushed the countering Hardy against the fence and worked for takedowns. GSP can find success where Swick failed (watch the second B.J. Penn fight). Dan Hardy is incredibly slow on the feet. GSP should be able to use his speed to dip under punches and either fire off combos of his own or shoot for the takedown.
Prediction :
There are too many variables in this fight for Dan Hardy to overcome. When making a prediction, I can’t pick the guy depending solely on clichés… "Anything can happen in a fight", "He has a puncher’s chance"…Some say Hardy will win because he has more heart and is hungrier. How are you measuring heart? Is it with some tape measure you picked up at your local convenient store? Both of these guys are tough. I don’t see either shying away or backing down.
As for Dan Hardy’s hunger, he should try Waffle House. I don’t see him being competitive in this fight. Hardy is a tough guy who deserves to be amidst WW contenders. It’s not a knock on his ability as a fighter. It’s a testament of how good GSP truly is.
Hardy, who has yet to even compete against a top five WW, is a bit premature in his title shot. Thiago Alves, Josh Koscheck, and Jon Fitch are huge steps up in competition compared to Mike Swick. GSP is a huge step up compared to those guys. He has completely dominated all three en-route to lopsided decisions.
Unless a miracle occurs, look for GSP to blast Hardy on the feet. He will then get an easy takedown. Hardy will struggle as GSP passes his guard and gains full-mount. After a barrage of punches and elbows, Hardy will give up the rear naked choke in the first round.
Shane Carwin Vs. Frank Mir
Key Victories :
Carwin (Gabriel Gonzaga, Christian Wellisch)
Mir (Brock Lesnar, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Tim Sylvia, Cheick Kongo, Antoni Hardonk)
Forecast :
By now, we all know how much Frank Mir hates Brock Lesnar. Mir even went as far as saying that he wanted to cause the first death in the UFC. After a private spanking from Dana White, he later apologized for his statements. I don’t know how he planned on killing Lesnar.
Maybe he rips off one of Lesnar’s limbs in a submission attempt?…or….Maybe Lesnar dies from heat exhaustion after five rounds of tenderizing Mir’s face? Murder aside, Frank Mir has bigger problems in front of him. In an interim HW Championship clash, Mir will do battle with Jackson protégé, Shane Carwin.
Out of 11 fights, none of Carwin’s have made it out of the first round. He is undefeated with six knockouts and five submission victories. In college, Carwin was a two-time NCAA Division II Wrestling National Runner-Up HW and the NCAA II Wrestling HW champion in 1999. He is known for his devestating power. In his fight with Neil Wain, Rogan was quoted saying that you could hear the thump of Wain’s head smashing into the canvas from Carwin’s ground-and-pound.
At 6’4 and weighing 275lbs, Carwin is undoubtedly a massive heavyweight. He trains with world class fighters like Rashad Evans, GSP, Nate Marquardt, Jon Jones, and Andrei Arvlovski at Greg Jackson’s gym in Albuquerque, New Mexico. At UFC 96, Carwin took home the biggest victory of his career in defeating Gabriel Gonzaga.
Frank Mir is also coming off an impressive win. At UFC 107, Mir smashed Cheick Kongo with an overhand left and snapped on a guillotine to finish the fight. It was a big statement from Mir. Not only can he submit you, but he can also knock you out. Mir’s newfound power can be attributed to his decision to gain 20-25 more pounds. In a division full of grizzly bears, he didn’t really have a choice.
Nightmares of the bullying he took from Lesnar at UFC 100 has to still weigh heavily on his mind. Lesnar took Mir down, secluded his arm, and beat him mercilessly with a ham-like fist. It resembled a second grader being thrashed by a fifth grader in an elementary school beatdown. A win over Carwin would set Mir on track of a third showdown with Brock Lesnar. Secretly, Dana is probably praying for a Mir victory. Lesnar/Mir III?…ahhhh I can smell the PPV gold from here!
Keys to Victory :
It’s hard to present Carwin with a sound a game plan in this fight. We haven’t seen enough of him. How is his submission defense? If he takes the fight to the ground, can he control or possibly even transition in Mir’s guard? We may or may not get the answers Saturday night. Shane Carwin has a deadly right cross that can end any fight within the blink of an eye.
Christian Welisch reenacted a scene from Bring It On when he was unwillingly forced to do the splits after catching a Carwin cross. Carwin doesn’t have the technical skills that Mir has on the feet. He should trust in his power. Mir used long combinations in his fight with Nogueira. Carwin should look for Mir to over-commit on a combo. If Mir makes a mistake, a counter cross will be waiting on him.
If this fight ends up on the ground, things will get really interesting. Carwin has never fought a fighter close to Mir’s caliber in BJJ. This would be a feeling out process. If Carwin got a takedown, he would have to make a judgment call based on his own comfort level. If he can’t control Mir’s hips and movement, he should scramble back to his feet. Carwin trains with crafty grapplers at Jackson’s MMA. He should be prepared wherever the fight goes.
Mir has added some significant tools to his arsenal. In the Nogueira fight, Mir utilized a nice lead uppercut in various combinations. He also did a great job of blending his kickboxing and his Muay Thai together. On the outside, Mir mixed kicks in with punch combinations. When the distance closed, Mir cinched the Muay Thai plum and started working knees. He should implement the same strategy in this fight. I don’t see Mir taking Carwin down. For Mir to utilize his BJJ, he will have to either get taken down or drop Carwin on the feet.
Carwin depends largely on that right cross landing. Mir can’t afford to leave his chin hanging out there. A split second is all that is needed. Carwin doesn’t have great boxing defense. Mir will have chances to land. He needs to keep his hands up and avoid getting sloppy. Don’t get over-zealous. Use footwork and work your boxing.
Prediction :
This is a hard fight to predict. Not much is known about Shane Carwin. This will be his true proving ground. Is Shane Carwin for real?…Or…Is he just a flash in the pan? The latter won’t be decided by a loss to Frank Mir. I just find it incredible how Carwin has leaped even beyond Junior Dos Santos and Cain Velasquez in some people’s eyes. He hasn’t shown much technical brilliance in any of his performances. If I was oblivious to his background, Carwin just seems like a big guy who can punch hard.
Before you crucify me, I’m not saying Shane Carwin isn’t every bit as good as people are hyping him up to be. For all I know, he could become the next Heavyweight Champion. I’m just a little skeptical of jumping on a blind bandwagon. I used the term blind because Carwin is still an enigma in the HW division. Remember the Gonzaga bandwagon?
Like the Alves/Fitch fight, I’ve been riding the fence on this fight. In the end, I couldn’t bring myself to pick Carwin. Frank Mir will come out and work him on the feet. With no answers for Mir’s boxing, a tired and desperate Carwin will shoot for telegraphed takedowns. Mir will stuff the takedown attempts and continue to pour it on. After getting dropped, the referee will step in to save Carwin from Mir’s ground onslaught in the third round.
Wait…What TUF season was I on again?
Ben Saunders Vs. Jake Ellenberger
Key Victories :
Saunders (Marcus Davis)
Ellenberger (Mike Pyle)
Forecast :
Many remember Ben Saunders from his appearance in the not so talented season 6 of "The Ultimate Fighter". Since the show, he has gone 4-1 in the UFC. His last victory was the most significant of his career. He was able to stop Marcus Davis in the first round via knees to the face.
Training at American Top Team, Saunders is a brown belt in BJJ. At 6’3, he towers over most opponents at Welterweight. His height enables him to utilize a long reach and effective Muay Thai. Saunders was originally scheduled to face Martin Kampmann on this card. Due to injury, Kampmann was forced to withdraw and Jake Ellenberger has stepped in to take his place.
Ellenberger is an explosive boxer with dynamic takedowns. He caught many by surprise in his fight with Carlos Condit at UFC Fight Night 19. Condit was continuously blasted on the feet. At a couple points, he actually fell to his knees and turtled up. Condit displayed tremendous poise and rebounded to take the split decision.
Inches away from an upset, Ellenberger went back to the drawing board and returned to take a TKO victory over Mike Pyle at UFC 108. Ellenberger trains at Team Quest with Dan Henderson, Matt Lindland, Chael Sonnen, and Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou.
Keys to Victory :
First things first….What is up with the standup defense displayed by these guys? Saunders throws his hands up in prayer or like he’s swatting flies, and Ellenberger blitzes head first with straights like Blanka from Street Fighter. These guys play into each others styles so well that it makes this fight really intriguing.
Ellenberger should try his best to set up his overhand right. Forced on his heels, Saunders has an odd way of covering up. Instead of covering his head, he merely blocks the front part of his face. A well-placed hook or overhand could end this fight rather quickly.
Ellenberger should watch for telegraphed body kicks. Saunders displayed a lot of them in his fight with Mike Swick. Ellenberger was able to catch a Condit kick and drop him with a straight. It would be wise to look for that same opportunity in this fight. Ellenberger has serious power in both hands. He is also good at utilizing both orthodox and southpaw stance.
As far as the ground is concerned, Ellenberger should be able to take Saunders down whenever he wants. From there, it will probably be a stalemate. Ellenberger has great submission defense. His only weakness is his ability to transition. Saunders has a knack for just holding on for dear life when underneath competent grapplers.
Ellenberger should keep the fight standing and look for the overhand. They are really effective against taller fighters. They are twice as effective against taller guys who can’t block.
To ensure longevity, Saunders needs to protect his cranium in this fight. There is a difference between Swick’s power and Ellenberger’s. Swick’s power comes in bunches (a barrage per say). Ellenberger has one punch knockout power. If Saunders gets caught, he will get a bad rating on UFC Undisputed 2010. He doesn’t want that!
The Muay Thai clinch could be the key for Saunders in this fight. Ellenberger’s wild-man style got him caught in it by Condit a few times. Saunders has a nasty clinch. Who could ever forget the 30+ knees being landed on Brandon Wolff at UFC: Fight for the Troops? Wolff had more knots on his head than a patient with hemorrhoids.
Saunders should depend on his jab. He needs to use it to keep Ellenberger at bay. When Ellenberger prepares to spring, Saunders should jab and circle away. He doesn’t want Ellenberger having the offensive positioning in a clinch battle. Being the stronger wrestler, Ellenberger would be able to dump him on his head whenever he wanted.
Prediction :
This fight will be very fast and exciting. Look for Ellenberger to get after Saunders and get an early takedown. He won't be able to pass guard. The two will eventually end up back on the feet where Ellenberger will blast Saunders with an overhand-jab-straight combo. Saunders will go limp and crumple to the canvas in the first round.
Thiago "Pitbull" Alves Vs. Jon Fitch
Key Victories :
Alves (Josh Koscheck, Matt Hughes, Karo Parisyan, Chris Lytle, Marcus Davis)
Fitch (Thiago Alves, Paulo Thiago, Akihiro Gono, Diego Sanchez, Josh Burkman, Brock Larson)
Forecast :
This is quite possibly the best fight on the card. I personally believe it should be the co-main event. How many interim Heavyweight title fights are we going to have to see? MMA fans have been waiting a long time for this rematch. If GSP didn’t run the Welterweight division, this would be the championship bout.
While Jon Fitch is #2 on most WW rankings, Thiago Alves is #3. In their first fight, Alves was caught with a serious upkick. Fitch took advantage of the staggered Alves by pounding him out for the TKO stoppage. A drastically improved Thiago Alves looks for vengeance as he takes on Jon Fitch.
After losing to GSP at UFC 87, Fitch has put together a 3-fight winning streak. When it comes to consistency, Fitch is one of the best. Before meeting up with GSP, he had amassed a 16-fight winning streak. He is a black belt in Guerrilla Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ/Judo Fusion) under Dave Camarillo. In college, Fitch wrestled at the University of Purdue. He currently trains at American Kickboxing Academy with the likes of Cain Velasquez, Josh Koscheck, and Mike Swick.
Fresh off his loss to GSP at UFC 100, Thiago Alves is plunging back into the fire in this fight. Fighting the #1 and #2 Welterweights back to back isn’t an easy feat. Alves trains at American Top Team with Thiago Silva, Todd Duffey, Luiz Cane, Mike Brown, Denis Kang, and Wilson Gouveia. ATT is known for carrying an abundance of world class fighters. Despite having a purple belt in BJJ, Alves is known for his devastating Muay Thai. 11 out of his 17 wins have come by knockout.
Keys to Victory :
This fight will be won or lost by the takedown. If Fitch can consistently drag Alves to the ground, he will grind this fight out. If Alves can avoid the takedowns, he will outpoint Fitch on the feet. Jon Fitch has to really disguise his shots in this fight.
Alves has improved takedown defense. In his fight with Josh Koscheck, he was able to avoid every single takedown. Koscheck wasn’t as relentless with his attempts as he normally is. He chose to stand and trade with Alves. The fight quickly turned into a game of Rock Em’ Sock Em’ Blondie. Despite his loss, Kos was able to land on Alves.
Jon Fitch is a very intelligent fighter. The one thing to admire about him is his ability to implement a strategy and impose his will. Regardless of how nasty a fight gets, Fitch rarely deviates from his game plan. Alves loves to lead his jab with an inside leg kick. Fitch should look to catch these kicks and turn them into takedowns.
In his fight with Mike Pierce, Fitch never really covered up in any of the exchanges. He allowed Pierce to turn his face into Mexican Piñata. Alves is arguably the most dangerous striker in the WW division. Fitch can’t afford to leave any openings in this fight.
Outside shots will be Fitch’s best bet. Alves has very good cage posture. It will be hard to press him against the fence and drag him to the ground. Fitch needs to catch Alves sitting on his hips in the open. The majority of GSP’s successful takedown attempts on Alves came from the outside.
The key for Alves is to avoid getting stuck in stagnant positions. Fitch is a grinder. If he gains an offensive advantage, he doesn’t mind holding you in that position and peppering you with punches. Alves has to keep moving. Mike Pierce opened holes in Fitch’s boxing defense. I expect Alves to take advantage of the same mistakes if they aren’t corrected.
In the Kos fight, Alves hovered around the cage. He used it as a safety net for Kos’s takedown attempts. When Kos shot in, Alves was able to control Kos’s wrists and use the cage for leverage to avoid being taken down. He may implement the same strategy in this fight. Pressed against the cage, it’ll be hard for Fitch to succeed where Kos failed.
Alves needs to be careful with his leg kicks in this fight. This doesn’t mean for him to abandon them. He needs to avoid getting lazy with them. A telegraphed kick could mean an easy takedown for Fitch. He needs to throw every kick with fire behind it.
Fitch will be looking for a takedown every second of this fight. If taken down, Alves will need to create space and explode back to his feet. As stated earlier, the pace of the fight will be vital to Alves’s success. A slow, drawn out position battle will favor Jon Fitch. As long as Alves remains upright and moving, he should ok in this fight.
Prediction :
I know Fitch has never been an elite striker, but Pierce exposed some serious holes in his game. The same holes also appeared in his fight with GSP. Jon Fitch has bad boxing defense.
Alves’s improved takedown defense is going to be Fitch’s undoing in this fight. This isn’t going to be a pretty. Fitch will put up a courageous effort. Alves will decimate him on the feet and avoid the takedowns. There will be a new #2 WW in the world when the judges award Alves the unanimous decision.
Jim Miller Vs. Mark Bocek
Key Victories :
Miller (Mac Danzig, Matt Wiman)
Bocek (Alvin Robinson, David Bielkheden)
Forecast :
This UFC never fails at putting that one fight on a card that you really don’t want to see. It would have been nice to see Almeida/Brown slipped into this spot. Sigh…I guess we can live through one hiccup. Fighting out of Toronto, Canada, Bocek is a BJJ artist. He received his black belt from Joao Roque. His last 3 victories have come by rear naked choke.
Jim Miller is a big step up in competition for Bocek. Miller is a brown belt in BJJ under Jamie Cruz. He has very good wrestling with solid top control. With only 2 wins by KO, people tend to forget about his heavy hands. In his fight with Duane Ludwig, he dropped Ludwig midway in the first. The punch setup Miller’s groundwork. He was eventually able to turn a Ludwig escape attempt into an armbar.
Keys to Victory :
It’s a good thing Bocek has improved his standup. This fight will most likely be fought from that position. I believe Miller is the better wrestler. It’s going to be tough for Bocek to get takedowns. He will have to use tight boxing and good foot movement to avoid getting caught on the feet.
Miller may shoot and get a takedown. Usually, that would be a good thing for Bocek. The problem is Miller’s excellent submission defense. It’s never good to be on your back against a strong wrestler you can’t submit. Bocek will have to search for openings in hopes of a mistake. If the fight stays standing and Bocek avoids the big shot, he can possibly outpoint Miller to a decision.
This is Miller’s fight to lose. With advantages on the feet and ground, Miller will be able to dictate where the fight goes. If he takes the fight to the ground, he shouldn’t underestimate Bocek’s submission game. He should avoid going for anything risky that could possibly lead to him fighting from his back. The primary strategy is to keep Bocek from ever gaining top control. Make him catch you. Don’t put him in advantageous positions.
Prediction :
Jim Miller is an 8 year old kid hungry for McDonald’s, and Mark Bocek will be his Happy Meal. Miller will take full advantage of this matchup as he hurts Bocek with a straight. He will then muscle Bocek against the cage and lock in a guillotine submission in the first round. Mickey D’s Baby!
Official Picks
Georges St. Pierre By Round 1 Submission
Frank Mir By Round 3 TKO Stoppage
Jake Ellenberger By Round 1 KO
Thiago Alves By Unanimous Decision
Jim Miller By Round 1 Submission
Fight of the Night : Thiago Alves Vs. Jon Fitch
Knockout of the Night : Frank Mir Over Shane Carwin
Submission of the Night : Rousimar Palhares Over Tomasz Drwal
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