2010 NCAA Tournament: Friday's Most Likely Upsets and Bracket Busters

After a number of seed-based upsets during Thursday's opening day of the 2010 NCAA Tournament, Friday's matchups could see that trend continuing.

Interesting to mention, however, is that despite the media's claims of "upset city" yesterday, our math model projections of the NCAA tournament indicated that many of Thursday's games would be much more closely contested than their seed differences implied.

For example, the projections gave No. 13 Murray State over 40 percent odds to take down No. 4 Vanderbilt, and No. 10 St. Mary's clearly projected as the better team then No. 7 Richmond. (See all of today's upset odds. )

Based on our data-driven predictive algorithms, here are Friday's most likely upsets and bracket busters:

Friday's Most Likely Seed Upsets

According to our survival odds projections, here are the five most likely seed upsets to happen today:

1. No. 10 Missouri over No. 7 Clemson
2. No. 10 Georgia Tech over No. 7 Oklahoma State
3. No. 9 Florida State over No. 8 Gonzaga
4. No. 9 Louisville over No. 8 Cal
5. No. 11 Minnesota over No. 6 Xavier

In the 13-16 seed range, the most likely upset is No. 13 Siena over No. 4 Purdue. Our projections factor in Purdue's performance in the five games they have played since Robbie Hummel's injury, but no additional adjustment, so it's possible that Siena's chances are actually a little higher than modeled (about 30 percent).

Friday's Biggest Potential Bracket Busters

When an upset happens, its impact on bracket contests depends on how many people picked the favorite and how far they had them favorite going. The numbers below don't assess the latter, but they indicate the biggest potential bracket busters based on public picking percentages to reach the second round:

1. No. 9 Louisville loses to No. 8 Cal...not technically a seed upset, but Cal has slightly over a 50 percent shot to win and only 30 percent of the public picked them.
2. No. 5 Texas A&M loses to No. 12 Utah State (41 percent chance, only 21 percent picked).
3. No. 13 Wofford beats No. 4 Wisconsin (21 percent chance, only 4.5 percent picked).
4. No. 9 Florida State beats No. 8 Gonzaga (48 percent chance, only 33 percent picked).
5. No. 14 Oakland beats No. 3 Pittsburgh (17 percent chance, only 2.5 percent picked), although some of our models think Oakland's chance is lower than that.

Note: We use ESPN's reported user picking trends (from over 5 million brackets completed) as a proxy for public opinion.