2010 NCAA Tournament: Hardest First-Round Pick

Analyzing the 2010 bracket is tough.

At a quick glance there looks to be plenty of upsets over the next 48 plus hours. The more and more you think, the less likely it's the right pick. Unfortunately one game has caused me to breakdown everything about it.

It's the one game that has stumped me all week. The one game where I have picked one team, erased it, and picked the other before erasing again.Naturally it's an eight seed vs a nine seed.

No. 8 Gonzaga will square off against the No. 9 seeded Florida St Seminoles Friday at 7:10 in Buffalo, New York. Vegas has FSU favored by 1.5.

A tale of the tape shows these teams were destined to meet. The 'Noles rank No. 1 in the nation in defensive efficiency, using 7-1 center Solomon Alabi to shut down all action in the paint. The Bulldogs score 77.6 points per game and have a balanced, diversified attack. Point guard Demetri Goodson can penetrate off the dribble, while big man Robert Sacre has a deadly hook around the goal.

FSU’s offense commits an average of just under 17 turnovers per game. The 'Noles have failed to score 70 points or more in seven of their last eight games, with the only exception coming against a North Carolina team who gave up on its season a long time ago. FSU wins with its defense, and nothing else.

The Bulldogs have one of the great winners in the current game in Matt Bouldin and a better than expected supporting cast led by freshman Elias Harris. The game will hinge on whether Zags guards can knock down threes.

The 25-6 Zags started the season strong winning the Maui Invitational over the likes of Colorado, Wisconsin, and Cincinnati. But as the year dragged on, those wins looked less and less impressive.

During WCC play, the Zags uncharacteristically fell to the likes of San Francisco and Loyola Marymount. They also didn't win the WCC Conference tournament, something they usually breeze through.

In between, the Zags lost to the two ACC teams they played. A 77-75 heart breaker to Wake Forest, and a 76-41 shellacking at the hands of Duke.

Florida St. (22-9) had a quiet non- conference losing to the likes of Ohio St. and Florida while squeaking out a W over Marquette. In ACC play, the Seminoles were 0-3 against the Co-Champs Maryland and Duke. But they did beat Wake towards the end of the year.

Bottom line: Even if FSU slows down Gonzaga, the Bulldogs are likely to score in the high 50s or low 60s. When one realizes that the Seminoles have averaged just 53.5 points in their last four games, it becomes very hard to pick Florida State.

At the same time, this just doesn't feel like Gonzaga's year. I think the 'Noles defense steps up to the challenge as the 'Zags transform from basketball players into brick layers.

I'll take Florida St over Gonzaga 65-61.