UFC on Versus 1 Predictions: Jones, Dos Santos Due for Big Victories

UFC makes it debut on Versus this Saturday with two solid pay-per-view caliber fights highlighting the card. Let's all hope that this is a ratings success, so we can get more televised events on cable. 

I was solid in UFC 110 (7-2) and horrible in WEC 47 (1-4), so we'll see what this card holds.       

Jon Jones vs. Brandon Vera

The Hype

Jones is probably still fuming over his DQ loss against Matt Hamill for an illegal north-south elbow. He was ahead in the fight, and any mathematician will tell you that if he had angled his strike four degrees east Jones would have eventually TKO'd Hamill, his perfect record still in tact. 

Nonetheless, what happened happened.  Jones has a blemish on his record, but luckily for MMA fans, a loss doesn't mean the same thing it would to a boxing fan.

Vera is coming off an uninspired loss to Couture, his second uninspired fight in a row. A once highly touted phenom, he now has made a lot of enemies of former fans from his lack of entertaining bouts. Luckily, when you go up against one of the most entertaining fighters in the UFC, one would assume this fight would be a worthwhile affair by default. 

Let's just hope Jones, not Vera, controls the pace.

The Match  

Jones will probably unleash the kitchen sink at Vera. Snap kicks, throw attempts, and takedowns should be in order. Vera's defense has always been solid, but this is a fight where he will finally be over matched. He's going to have to pray he can lock in a hold by hooking Jones when he least expects it. 

Both guys have similar stand-up games due to their lanky frames and reach, so we could see a straight forward kickboxing match at first. Still, in the end, Jones' need to avenge his loss and his complete package MMA skills will propel him into initial consideration for the 205-lb. title picture.

Prediction: Jones, Round Two—TKO (punches)


Junior Dos Santos vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

The Hype

Everyone remembers when Gonzaga looked like a future champion after giving Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic a taste of his own medicine (a prescription for head kicks) in early 2007.  Six fights later, he's gone a mediocre 3-3. The losses all came from worthy opponents, the wins not so much. Gonzaga is going to really have to press here if he wants to stay relevant.

The problem is, he's going against another rising superstar in the heavyweight division in Dos Santos. Junior is a punching machine and I'll even say he's one of the best offensive boxers in the UFC right now. But notice I did not say anything about defense.

The Match

This will be a great stand-up bout between two powerful guys. I'd bet Dos Santos won't be too excited to go to the ground, so he'll keep his distance initially. Gonzaga has to be thinking to shoot so he can neutralize Dos Santos striking ability. If Napao can't take the match to the ground, he's still a very capable striker, so he can trade off with Junior. 

In the end, I see these two exchanging repeated shots and treating us to a bout we wish every boxing match resembled. But Gonzaga's loss to Carwin scares me, since he got caught and went down so quickly.

Prediction: Dos Santos, Round Three—(KO) Punch


Paul Buentello vs. Cheick Kongo 

The Hype

Here's a match that should involve at least one comedic moment. I'll guess Buentello's pants fall down or something along those lines.

I ripped on Kongo before his Mir fight and was rewarded with an expected outcome. I am a believer that Kongo is just one of those guys whose skill set has dropped off greatly. It happens with some guys when age starts to set in. 

Luckily for Mr. Kongo (he still has the best name in the UFC) he's going against Paul "Weird Uncle" Buentello. Based off looks alone, Buentello reminds me of a guy who would parade around in a Members Only jacket and periodically drop by to see you when he needed money. Obscure references aside, Buentello is 36 and doesn't have the skills or ability to take it to Kongo. 

The Match

First thing's first, Cheick Kongo is not Stefan Struve. Buentello fared well against "Super Gumby," but that's because Struve has no punching power.

Enter Kongo, a nasty striker. No matter how much a guy's skills diminish, once a striker, always a striker. Going from Struve to Kongo is not going to do any favors for Pauly B.  He's going to have to defend the standard barrage of attacks from Kongo and hope to remain on his feet. This will not happen.  Kongo will dominate this fight and secure a rare submission victory early on.

Prediction: Kongo, Round One—Submission (Arm bar)


James Irvin vs. Alessio Sakara

The Hype 

First let me say that I would much rather have had Clay Guida on the main card rather than this match. That being said, screw the hype on this one.

The Match

Irvin's year-and-a-half layoff could be his undoing here, as this fight is another slugfest on paper. It looks to me as if Joe Silva intentionally put together a KO-friendly card for the Versus big wigs—reel 'em in with the eye candy.

Irvin's matches have lasted a combined 4:07 in his past four fights. Not exactly the sparkling resume-padders when consider that he's 2-2, with one win by DQ and one loss by retirement. But hey, he's got the Houston Alexander Factor—or HAF—on his side. Still, I'm very uneasy with picking Irvin to win here because I think he's actually cursed.

So since Irvin is cursed, I have to go with Sakara, right? I guess so, because it's unrealistic to think this will go to the cards. Mark my words, if it did, we'd have a draw.  But again, it's not going to happen because despite his last bout going the distance, it has been four years since Sakara had another. 

Prediction: Sakara, Round Two (ha!)—KO (punches)


Pre-lim Predictions (Winners in bold)

Shannon Gugerty vs. Clay Guida
Eliot Marshall vs. Vladimir Matyushenko
Darren Elkins vs. Duane "Bang" Ludwig
John Howard vs. Daniel Roberts
Chase Gormley vs. Brendan Schaub
Julio Paulino vs. Mike Pierce
Jason Brilz vs. Eric Schafer