March Madness Bracket Analysis: A Look at the Wild West Regional

Go West, young man. There’s gold in them there hills, which probably sits well with the 12th-seeded UTEP Miners.

There’s little resistance in this bracket relative to the other regions and that should sit well with the Syracuse Orange. At least it should if the Orange are healthy.

If not, meaning Arinze Onuaku the aircraft carrier sized post for the Orangemen is out or even less than 100%, the region goes from Syracuse’s to lose to wide open.

Wide open in terms of eight or nine teams having a realistic chance to navigate their way to Hoosier land.

After all, they don’t call it the Wild West for nothing. Let’s take a look.

The Headliners
Syracuse, Kansas State, Pitt, and Vanderbilt round off your top four seeds respectively. One can make the argument that seeds 2-4 are the weakest teams on their seed line in the tournament.

KSU is trumped by two-seeds Villanova, West Virginia, and Ohio State.

Pitt would probably be underdogs to fellow three-seeds Baylor, Georgetown, and New Mexico.

Out of all the four-seeds, I’d rate Vanderbilt ahead of only an injury-ravaged Purdue club on the four line. Maryland and Wisconsin are better clubs.

Again, there’s little elite resistance here for Syracuse if they’re at full strength.

Bracket busters

The sleeper teams in this region are as intriguing as the top seeds are weak. UTEP as a 12 seed has NBA talent, as well as an inside/outside punch that is typically reserved for top 10 teams. Had the Miners not spit the bit in their conference title game, they would have gotten a much more favorable seed.

Randy Culpepper, Julyan Stone, and Christian Polk give UTEP a solid three guard offense. Derrick Caracter and Arnette Moutrie complement one another inside. Both of these the Miner bigs have well-rounded games in that they can face up or play with their back to the basket.

Opposing teams will have their hands full with this well coached group led by up-and-comer Tony Barbee.

The other potential sleeper team is Murray State. The Racers are extremely athletic for a mid-major and they play an aggressive style of man-to-man that pressures the dribble, challenges every pass, and bumps cutters.

It’s a style that can expose mediocre guard play because the Racers quick athletes basically sell out on the perimeter knowing they’re backed by one of the premier shot blockers in the game in Tony Easley.

Murray State’s athleticism and style match up very well with a team like Vanderbilt who plays more of a traditional two-guard personnel group.

Vandy guards John Jenkins and Jermaine Beal will have to figure out a way to penetrate past the Racer’s perimeter shell and make good decisions afterward to get touches for Commodore finishers Jeff Taylor and A.J. Ogilvy.

If they can’t, Murray State will feed off of turnovers which is huge for a group that’s offensively challenged. Vanderbilt is only a four-point favorite, so Murray has a real shot in this game. Or at least Vegas thinks so.

Matchups to Watch For

The best opening round matchup is UTEP and Butler. Seldom does a 5/12 game have the potential to impact a region like the Miners vs. the Bulldogs will. If Syracuse’s Onuaku is dinged, their zone goes from being dynamic to mediocre so teams like Butler and UTEP become legit contenders on the top side of this bracket.

Syracuse’s senior fly swatter is the key protecting the rim for an active 2-3 zone and when Arinze is out of the lineup, the Orangemen are suddenly vulnerable on the back line of the defense to penetration and offensive glass work.

Which means the winner of the Butler/UTEP game is a real threat to make a deep tournament run. Who knows? Considering the aforementioned weakness of the other top seeds in the bracket, the Final Four is attainable.

Another match up to watch for is Kansas State and Pittsburgh. Instead of a basketball arena they might want to play this one in a squared circle and hire Michael Buffer. It’s going to be an all-out bare-knuckler.

I like Kansas State’s guards a lot more than Pitt’s, but the Panthers have a way of making games ugly which is right up their alley as far as style is concerned.

If Kansas State can get Pitt to come out and play, so to speak, making this an up and down affair, they’ll win. Pitt has to turn it into a grinder otherwise they can’t compete with the KSU backcourt. I think Kansas State’s guards win the tempo battle meaning the Wildcats advance.

All Region Team

Wes Johnson of Syracuse is my hybrid wing. Great athlete that can really fill it up. Also one of the most underrated shot blockers in all of America.

The other wing is Gordon Hayward of Butler. He’s a 6′9″ guard/forward that can handle, shoot, and pass. A more athletic Adam Morrison.

My center is Derrick Caracter, a 6′9″ wide body that has oustanding touch for a guy that can really bang. His face up game is shockingly good for such a big man.

One guard is Jeff Taylor, who’s more of a wing. Taylor has explosive quicks and is long and athletic at 6′7″. He’s not the shooter that teammate Jermaine Beal is, but I like him as a finisher on this club.

The lead guard is Kansas State’s Denis Clemente. He’s never met a shot he didn’t like, but the kid is one heckuva competitor and when he gets it going he can fill it up.

Coming off the bench is North Texas’ Josh White and Butler’s Shelvyn Mack at the guard spots. One of my wings is Xavier’s sophomore sensation Jordan Crawford. BYU’s sharp shooter Jimmer Freddette is my three-point sniper off the bench. Syracuse’s Rick Jackson is backing up Derrick Caracter at post for another back to the basket scorer.

Regional Prediction

I think Syracuse struggles in its second-round game against FSU. FSU is so athletic that they’ll be able to beat the Orangemen on the glass if the 'Cuse are missing Onuaku. 'Cuse advances by the skin of their teeth against a Seminole team with shaky guard play.

Moving on…

UTEP beats the Bulldogs in a classic first-round game on a Randy Culpepper three at the buzzer. The Miners then beat an upstart Murray State club who struggles to score. UTEP has guards to defeat the Racers’ pressure, and Caracter and Moultrie are big enough to finish over Tony Easley.

In the round of 16, if Onuaku is playing, I like the Orangemen size to wear down the Miners.

For argument sake and entertainment purposes, let’s say the Syracuse center is scratched from the lineup. In that case Caracter and Moultrie should be able to get a stalemate in the paint against Syracuse.

Guard play becomes the deciding factor and the Miner guards are better creators than their Orangemen counterparts. I like UTEP to advance.

In the bottom half of the bracket, BYU wins its first tournament game in a long while as Tavernari and Freddette shoot Billy Donovan’s squad out of the game.

Kansas State then exposes BYU’s lack of athleticism by controlling tempo and dominating the three second area.

Pitt beats Xavier and Oakland by keeping these games in the 60's. In Pitt’s game against Kansas State, as previously mentioned, the Wildcat guards control the pace allowing the team with better skilled players to survive and advance.

It sets up a David and Goliath tilt between Kansas State and UTEP for the right to go to Indianapolis.

Frank Martin’s KSU team struggles against a hot shooting Miner backcourt in the first half and falls behind.

In the second half, Derrick Caracter is saddled with four fouls. Against an undersized UTEP frontcourt, Kansas State plays volleyball on the glass, grabbing as many boards as necessary to finally get the ball in the bucket on virtually every possession.

The No. 2 seeded Wildcats end UTEP’s Cinderella story and cut down the nets in Salt Lake City to advance to the Final Four.

They’ll play the winner of the Midwest Region which will be coming soon.

Love to read your thoughts.

This article originally appeared on March To March

Follow Kevin Berger on Twitter: @MarchToMarch