Handicapping the No. 1 Seeds: What Does Duke's Path Look Like?

The Duke Blue Devils have their first No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament since J.J. Redick played back in 2005-06.

It isn't like the Devils haven't enjoyed the benefits of a high seed—they've had a No. 2 seed in the previous two years. 

Still, Duke had to earn this one.  After several seasons of fading in March, the Blue Devils came into this season with a lot of unanswered questions. 

Gerald Henderson and Elliot Williams were gone, leaving Duke with only two scholarship guards until a young Andre Dawkins came to give Duke some added depth in the backcourt.

The Blue Devils' post play was also under scrutiny.  After three seasons, Brian Zoubek had yet to develop into a consistent post presence, and Duke's post hopes seemed to rest on the inexperienced Miles and Mason Plumlee, who broke his wrist right before the season started.

But Duke answered those questions.

The Devils' backcourt is the highest scoring trio in the nation.  Zoubek has stepped up in a big way, and the Plumlee brothers are providing good production off the bench.

On the backs of Duke's big three in Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith, and Kyle Singler, the Blue Devils' have earned the No. 1 seed in the South bracket.

How does their path to the Final Four look?

In a word, doable.

The No. 2 seed in Duke's bracket is Villanova, who was favored to be a No. 1 seed a month ago before they faded down the stretch, losing five of their last seven games.

The South's No. 3 seed is Baylor, who is one of the hotter teams in the tournament.  The Bears have won eight of their last 10 games, and they have a good balance of solid guard play and a dangerous big man in Ekpe Udoh.

The No. 4 seed in the South is Purdue, another team who was looking at a No. 1 seed just a few weeks ago.  The Boilermakers lost their star, Robbie Hummel, to injury and since that time, doubts have surrounded their postseason abilities, despite winning three of their last four games.

If their loss to Minnesota in the Big Ten tournament was an indication of where they are at as a team, Purdue is on upset alert.

Some other notable teams that fill out Duke's bracket are Louisville, Texas A&M, and Notre Dame.

A lot of people are talking about Duke's bracket being the easiest in the country, and although several of the teams in the South have high RPI ratings, Duke matches up well with the teams they will have to face to get to their first Final Four in six years.

In the first round, Duke plays the winner of Winthrop and Arkansas-Pine Bluff.  There has never been a No. 16 team that has beaten a No. 1 seed, so we'll just say the Devils are safe through the first round.

In Round Two, Duke will play either Louisville or California.  Neither team poses a major matchup problem for the Blue Devils since for the first time in years, Duke has great guards and serviceable big men. 

Louisville will be the tougher matchup, and they could be Duke's biggest hurdle to advancing in the tournament.  On paper, Louisville looks very close to Duke, with the Blue Devils having a slight edge in most statistical categories.

Louisville's biggest problem, however, is Duke's biggest strength—consistency.  In the end, Duke's too experienced and mentally tough to drop a game to Louisville.

In the Sweet 16, Duke would likely play Purdue or Texas A&M. 

Again, neither team presents a matchup problem for the Blue Devils.  Duke beat Purdue badly last season with Hummel, and that was in a game where Henderson scored only two points.

Texas A&M is too turnover happy (they average as many turnovers as assists per game) to overcome Duke's suffocating defense.

In the Elite 8, Duke will most likely face Villanova (although Notre Dame and Baylor could easily make a run).

Last season, Villanova embarrassed the Blue Devils in the Sweet 16.  But this isn't the same Wildcat team that went to the Final Four last year, nor is it the same Duke team that lost to Villanova last season.

The Wildcats don't have a post presence like they did last year with Dante Cunningham.  Like Texas A&M, Villanova turns the ball over at an alarming rate.  In a matchup with Duke, the Wildcats would be outrebounded by a large margin while struggling to guard Duke's bigger perimeter players.

Let's get this straight, the Blue Devils aren't guaranteed to make the Final Four.

No one is.

They will have to bring their A-game each night if they hope to end their recent Final Four drought.

That being said, Duke's bracket is certainly favorable for their success.  The higher seeds don't produce any obvious matchup nightmares, and Duke comes into the tournament having won 12 of their last 13 games.

A second round matchup against Louisville could be the Blue Devils' biggest hurdle to a Final Four, but don't think for a moment that this upperclassmen-laden Duke squad will try to coast once they get to the Sweet 16.

A lot of people will pick Duke to be the No. 1 seed least likely to make the Final Four.

But the NCAA tournament is all about matchups, and in that category Duke may be the No. 1 seed most likely to make the Final Four.

For the first time in years, the Devils are poised to play up to their seeding and make a serious run for the NCAA title.