A #1 Seed Is Going to Lose

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It's going to happen.  It's bound to happen.  A  #1 seed will finally face the inevitable and lose to a #16 seed.  Will it happen this year? Maybe, maybe not, but the chances are higher than ever that it does.

This year is more unpredictable then we've ever seen before.  Already in conference tournaments we have seen upsets that we would've never thought would happen.  How do the top three seeds in the Big East tournament lose their first games?  This is clearly the best conference and the three best teams lose in the quarterfinals.  That's what college basketball is all about, upsets we almost don't want to believe happened.

Everyone claims this is a down year for college basketball.  It all depends how you look at it though.  Maybe I'm an optimist; always looking at the glass as half full, instead of half empty, but this just means more excitement.  For once we don't have any teams that have a clear path to the final four, let alone to a championship.  There really aren't many top tier teams that seem dominate.  Every team has their flaws and they can be beat on any given night.

Okay, I know you've heard that before.  Every year it seems like when we get to Selection Sunday we here that same phrase; this year it's true though.  Look at the top teams, Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke, Ohio State, and Kansas State. That's all we got, six teams that seem like they have a shot.  Usually were debating about 20 teams that have a shot at a 1-4 seed, this year it's what team is going to grab the open #2 seeds.  It's really a territory we've never seen before.

I think the misconception that people have this year is that the lower teams aren't any good, that's not true.  I just think that teams are much more equal from top to bottom.  Does any #1 team really want to play a Notre Dame team that will probably end up with a #8 or #9 seed in the second round?  Just because we don't know the bottom tiered teams as much and they don't look as great, doesn't mean that they're any worse than last year; they're probably actually better.

This is the year.  I'm making a prediction that this is the year that a #1 goes down.  Syracuse could go down against a #16 team that can shoot well against their zone, Duke could lose because if they don't hit shots then they suffer, Kentucky could lose if they don't play with cohesiveness and their lack of experience, and Kansas could lose if some of their big time players don't show up in the first round.

So who's going to lose?  Who is the team that will become the laughing stock of college basketball and be considered amongst one of the biggest upsets of all-time?

My guess is Kentucky.  Sorry Wildcat fans, but I just think if there's any team that is going to blow it in the first round it's going to be Kentucky.  Maybe it's just a gut feeling.  I'm probably completely wrong.  They'll probably win by 40 points.

If it happens, I'm a genius.  If it doesn't then whatever, no big deal.

Maybe the upset will happen, I hope it does.  Not for the sake of my genius forecast, but for the love of college basketball and a chance to see the upset that we have anticipated happening for years.