Big 12 Basketball: Baylor Bears Look for Three Straight Over Texas Longhorns

Baylor hasn’t beaten Texas three times in the same season since 1981-82. Can we break that streak tonight?

Rather than some esoteric discussion of the relative merits of each team, I think it’s relevant to do a quick look at the stats from our first two matchups.

Baylor 80, @Texas 77 (OT)

Baylor: 28-64 (43.8 percent FG), 3-12 (25 percent 3PT), 21-27 (77.8 percent FT), 37 rebounds (11 offensive), 13 steals, six blocks, 20 turnovers, 1.096 points per possession.

Texas: 27-70 (38.6 percent FG), 4-15 (26.7 percent 3PT), 19-31 (61.3 percent FT), 37 Rebounds (14 Offensive), 12 steals, seven blocks, 18 turnovers, 1.041 points per possession.

@Baylor 92, Texas 77

Baylor: 36-66 (54.5 percent FG), 5-16 (31.3 percent 3PT), 15-17 (88.2 percent FT), 28 rebounds (nine offensive), 12 steals, five blocks, eight turnovers, 1.415 points per possession.

Texas: 28-55 (50.9 percent FG), 5-17 (29.4 percent 3PT), 16-18 (88.9 percent FT), 25 Rebounds (six offensive), four steals, seven blocks, 18 turnovers, 1.149 points per possession.

Trader Rick was subject to much ridicule, on a certain message board that I won’t dignify, by suggesting after both games that UT did a great job of getting the shots they wanted, and just did not knock them down. I don’t think this comment is off base.

Clearly, the Horns didn’t shoot the ball well at all in Austin. A 38.6 shooting percentage is terrible under any system of measurement. Granted, naysayers might suggest it was because we forced them into tough shots.

I watched that game closely: they KILLED us on the pick and roll, and Gary Johnson and others had numerous opportunities to knock down 12 foot jumpers and just didn’t hit many of them. Obviously, the fact that UT can’t shoot free throws killed them in Austin. They handed us the game late because of a few key misses.

In Waco, Texas got the shots and made them. The difference was that Dogus Balbay’s services were no longer available, and so Barnes went to a shorter bench, playing Brown, Bradley, Hamilton, James, and Johnson for at least 31 minutes each, with only Chapman, Pittman, and Mason getting some spot duty.

The reason we beat Texas so handily in Waco is that we did something that we have struggled to do all season. For the season we are turning the ball over 14 times per game, and only forcing 12 per game. This negative turnover margin is bad for obvious reasons.

We have been able to mask our turnover issues because we kill the glass on both ends of the floor. Last Saturday in Waco, we had a turnover margin of +10. On a day when both teams were hitting their shots and free throws, this saved us.

While the scores look similar, the games we played with Texas were very different. In Austin, overtime was a worthy result that accurately depicted how close the game was. In Waco, we boat-raced Texas because we took care of the ball, and they didn’t.

Normally, we beat teams by holding them to a low shooting percentage and killing them on the glass. However, our offense will take care of itself tonight. Texas will make us work for shots, because that’s the game they play.

There is no discernable excuse for a real-life college basketball team to allow 10 dunks in a game, especially if all 10 are thrown down by a single player. I can’t imagine we’re going to run another layup line in KC tonight. That being said, we haven’t really struggled to put the ball in the hoop against them this year, and I don’t expect us to.

I think the key tonight is to find a way to get out on shooters better than we did on Saturday. It’s foolish to assume we’ll be +10 in turnovers again. We very well could be if Jordan Hamilton plays 35 minutes and submits his usual effort of incredible plays followed directly by incredibly stupid plays, and if James decides that the rest of his team is worthless (as he did last night) and just tries to do it all himself. But I’m not going to assume the best case scenario.

Iowa State has been on a roll, and Texas struggled to put them away last night. We have more talent than Iowa State top to bottom; obviously Brackens is arguably better than anyone we have, but quantity of talent is a factor.

If we can control the boards defensively and grab a few on the offensive end, and not be TOO careless with the ball (I fully expect two or three head-scratching Ant turnovers tonight, as per any other game), I like our odds.

We’re not going to score 1.4 points per possession, that’s just not repeatable. There’s no reason, however, that we can’t produce the same kind of defensive effort that we have the last two games. And if Texas decides not to settle for jumpers tonight, perhaps Udoh can be more of a factor than he was in the first two games.

Viva La Lomers!

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