Summit, Sun Belt, Big Sky, America East: Conference Tournament Preview

Summit

Quarterfinals—Mar. 6, Sioux Falls Arena, Midcontinent TV

No. 1 Oakland vs. No. 8  UMKC

Oakland beat UMKC twice by double digits in the regular season. Oakland is far superior to the Kangaroos and will win easily.

Oakland 88, UMKC 71

No. 4 South Dakota State vs. No. 5 IPFW

IPFW was playing well towards the end of the season. The Mastodons had a four-game winning streak snapped in a three-point loss at first place Oakland. On the flip side, South Dakota State was struggling down the stretch. 

IPFW 71, South Dakota State 67

No. 2 IUPUI vs. No. 7 Western Illinois

IUPUI lost three conference games by a total of six points. The Jaguars are so much better than the struggling Leathernecks. 

IUPUI 73, Western Illinois 60

No. 3 Oral Roberts vs. No. 6 North Dakota State

North Dakota State is the defending champion in the Summit. The Bison went to the 2009 tournament as a No. 14 seed and came close to upsetting Kansas in the first round. This year, with the loss of talent, the Bisons have struggled. Oral Roberts has won its last five games and swept North Dakota State in the regular season.

Oral Roberts 71, North Dakota State 64

Semifinals—Mar. 8, Sioux Falls Arena, Metro Sports TV

No. 1 Oakland vs. No. 5 IPFW

Oakland beat IPFW in close games twice this season. Just cause Oakland has been more consistent, it is a better team to pick in this matchup.

Oakland 73, IPFW 66

No. 2 IUPUI vs. No. 3 Oral Roberts

IUPUI and Oral Roberts split the season series, with both games being decided by three points or less, and one game going into overtime. These teams match up very well and make this game hard to predict. IUPUI is a much better shooting team from the field and from the charity stripe. This should give the Jaguars a small edge.

IUPUI 75, Oral Roberts 70

Championship—Mar. 9, Sioux Falls Arena, ESPN2

No. 1 Oakland vs. No. 2 IUPUI

IUPUI beat Oakland 85-82 in the first meeting, and then in the following meeting, Oakland blew out the Jaguars. Both teams have good shooters, although IUPUI is a little better. IUPUI's biggest struggle will be keeping Keith Benson from having a huge game. Benson is much bigger and stronger than any of the IUPUI players. He should score a lot and get a lot of rebounds, leading Oakland to a conference championship.

Oakland 81, IUPUI 76

Sun Belt

First Round—Mar. 6, Summit Arena/Convention Center Court

No. 8 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 9 South Alabama

South Alabama has struggled a lot in higher scoring games—Florida Atlantic usually plays up-tempo and scores a lot. This is a huge advantage for Florida Atlantic.

Florida Atlantic 79, South Alabama 71

No. 4 WKU vs. No. 13 New Orleans

Western Kentucky has won its last six games. New Orleans has been horrible this year. Western Kentucky will easily win this game, and send New Orleans home early in its final game in D-I.

Western Kentucky 78, New Orleans 59

No. 5 Arkansas State vs. No. 12 UALR

Both of these teams struggled late in the season, but UALR struggles were much worse. UALR has not won a game away from home, and the Trojans won't win their first on Saturday.

Arkansas State 74, UALR 62

No. 6 Denver vs. No. 11 Florida International

Florida International has lost eight straight games. Five of the losses were by four points or less. Based on this, the Panthers will stay close with Denver, but won't be able to pull out a win.

Denver 68, Florida International 63

No. 7 Louisiana-Lafayette vs. No. 10 Louisiana-Monroe

Louisiana-Lafayette swept Louisiana-Monroe. The Warhawks have had a lot of struggles in the last few weeks and I can't see them winning a game in the Sun Belt Tournament.

Louisiana-Lafayette 67, Louisiana-Monroe 60

Quarterfinals—Mar. 7, Summit Arena/Convention Center Court

No. 1 Troy vs. No. 8 Florida Atlantic

Troy and Florida Atlantic split the season series. Troy played much better than the Owls in the final month of the season and the Trojans get an edge due to their success in the last few games.

Troy 74, Florida Atlantic 67

No. 4 WKU vs. No. 5 Arkansas State

Arkansas State controlled its destiny for a conference championship with only a few games left in the season. The Red Wolves struggled late in the season and flew their chances. Western Kentucky got hot to pull ahead of the Red Wolves into fourth place. The Hilltoppers are playing much better now and will be able to beat Arkansas State.

Western Kentucky 71, Arkansas State 64

No. 3 Middle Tennessee vs. No. 6 Denver

Middle Tennessee won 11 of its last 13. The Blue Raiders are playing great basketball, and it is unfortunate for them that they were put on the bottom of the three-way tiebreaker. 

Middle Tennessee 68, Denver 59

No. 2 North Texas vs. No. 7 Louisiana-Lafayette

North Texas finished the season with eight straight wins. North Texas is playing too well right now to lose to Louisiana-Lafayette

North Texas 73, Louisiana-Lafayette 63

Semifinals—Mar. 8, Summit Arena

No. 1 Troy vs. No. 4 WKU

Troy is a better shooting team than WKU. All of the other major stats just about matchup, so shooting will be the difference.

Troy 80, WKU 76

No. 2 North Texas vs. No. 3 Middle Tennessee

North Texas is much more efficient from the field. The Mean Green score 1.42 points per shot. This efficiency will send the Mean Green to the championship game.

North Texas 79, Middle Tennessee 73

Championship—Mar. 9, Summit Arena, ESPN2

No. 1 Troy vs. No. 2 North Texas

Troy's biggest strength is three-point shooting. North Texas plays very good perimeter defense and its opponent rarely has a big game from beyond the arc. If the Mean Green play good defense, the Sun Belt's NCAA Tournament bid is theirs.

North Texas 82, Troy 77

Big Sky

First Round—Mar. 6, Hosted by higher seed

No. 3 Montana State vs. No. 6 Portland State

Portland State usually thrives in high scoring games, while Montana State usually struggles in them. However, Montana State beat Portland State twice in games that were higher scoring than the Bobcats are used to. The fact that Montana State was still able to beat Portland State when it played the Vikings game makes me think that the Bobcats will avoid the first round upset.

Montana State 74, Portland State 69

No. 4 Montana vs. No. 5 Northern Arizona

Montana had a better non-conference record and had bigger wins in conference. The Grizzlies already beat Northern Arizona twice by 17 points and 20 points. There is no doubt that Montana will win and advance to the semifinals.

Montana 70, Northern Arizona 63

Semifinals—Mar. 9, Dee Events Center (Weber State), Altitude

No. 2 Northern Colorado vs. No. 3 Montana State

I have became a big fan of Northern Colorado this year—so readers, beware.

Northern Colorado split the season series with Montana State. However, the Bears have better wins than the Bobcats, and also, they have better stats. This game belongs to Northern Colorado.

Northern Colorado 73, Montana State 65

No. 1 Weber State vs. No. 4 Montana

Montana and Weber State split the season series. Although Montana did beat Weber State by 14 this year, the Wildcats have the advantage. Weber State is a better shooting and rebounding team. In addition, the Wildcats look more athletic.

Weber State 72, Montana 67

Championship—Mar. 10, Dee Events Center (Weber State), ESPN2

No. 1 Weber State vs. No. 2 Northern Colorado

This is a must-watch conference championship game. Northern Colorado and Weber State split the season series in two exciting games. The Wildcats and the Bears matchup evenly and pose for a great game. Both teams have balance on the inside and the outside. 

Both teams play faster paced games. In a game where there will a be a lot of shooting, Northern Colorado will win. The Bears shoot 39.0 percent from three-point range and have many threats.

Northern Colorado 80, Weber State 77

America East

Quarterfinals—Mar. 6, Chase Arena, America East TV

No. 1 Stony Brook vs. No. 8 Albany

Stony Brook almost lost at Albany a few weeks ago. In the final game of the regular season, the Seawolves had a 10-game winning streak snapped by New Hampshire. Stony Brook has been consistent enough in conference play that it will not come close to losing to Albany again.

Stony Brook 69, Albany 59

No. 4 Boston U vs. No. 5 Hartford

Boston won six of its last seven games and looked like the team that it was supposed to be. Hartford hit a five-game setback in February, before winning the season finale in overtime against Albany.

Boston U 71, Hartford 62

No. 2 Vermont vs. No. 7 UMBC

UMBC was horrible this year and Vermont was the opposite. UMBC has no chance of beating Vermont.

Vermont 75, UMBC 59

No. 3 Maine vs. No. 6 New Hampshire

Although New Hampshire just blew out first place Stony Brook, Maine dominated New Hampshire in the regular season. The Black Bears are better fit in this matchup.

Maine 60, New Hampshire 55

Semifinals—Mar. 7, Chase Arena, America East TV

No. 1 Stony Brook vs. No. 4 Boston U

Stony Brook swept Boston in the regular season. Stony Brook picked up a questioning loss to New Hampshire to finish the regular season. Since Boston has been playing to its full potential in the last few weeks, Stony Brook will struggle with the Terriers.

Boston U 67, Stony Brook 63

No. 2 Vermont vs. No. 3 Maine

Vermont swept Maine in the regular season. Maine does not have the inside play to keep up with Marqus Blakely.

Vermont 67, Maine 58

Championship—Mar. 13, Hosted by higher seed ESPN2  

No. 2 Vermont vs. No. 4 Boston U

Vermont swept Boston in the regular season. Just like many of the teams in the A-East, the Terriers do not have a player that can keep up with Marqus Blakely. This should be a close game, but Vermont will pull out a conference championship and go to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2005, when the Catamounts upset Syracuse in the first round.

Vermont 72, Boston U 65

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