Michigan Wolverines: Way Too Early Predictions for 2010 (Games 7-9)

Michigan is starting out pretty hot so far (hypothetically) at 5-1 or 6-0, but will they be able to keep up with the Big Ten foes down the stretch? The short answer is no. They won't be able to do any better than .500 down the stretch in 2010 and will probably do worse.

How certain am I? Not at all. However, when you evaluate each game, it certainly appears much tougher than the first six games.

Week Seven: Iowa Hawkeyes

Why Michigan could lose this game— Iowa has been very good lately. After everything they lost from 2008 and during last year's offseason, they just kept getting stronger. They were truly the epitome of the saying "If it don't kill you, it only makes you stronger."

Not only did they lose Shonn Green, but also running back Jewel Hampton, and they were injured at multiple position groups, but somehow one guys goes down and another steps in and does just as well.

Iowa also returns eight starters on a defense that may have been the conference's best in 2009. Adrian Clayborn lived in Michigan's backfield last year, and is probably still living in Tate Forcier's nightmares.

Iowa also gets Jewel Hampton back from last year and has a fifth-year senior at quarterback, so the offense has a chance to take the extra step forward that it needs to take to be more of a national contender.

Why Michigan could win this game— In 2009, Michigan was visiting Kinnick Stadium while starting a true freshman at quarterback and came 46 seconds and a questionable coaching decision away from a great upset and what would have become bowl eligibility.

Michigan returns almost all of their entire two-deep on both sides of the ball and it's sometimes easy to forget how important that can be. The Wolverines have an excellent opportunity to pull off the upset and this may be their best chance to shock the world and beat somebody who is really tough.

This being a home game, Tate Forcier being a sophomore with almost all of his receivers back, and better depth and competition at quarterback makes this game a much more dangerous affair for Iowa. Michigan's biggest loss is Brandon Graham, as the secondary shouldn't see much fall off without Donovan Warren.

Iowa has to retool their offensive line and Stanzi is getting a little old to throw a pick-six every other game. It may also be that Iowa has topped out in terms of experience and talent whereas Michigan still has two years to go, therefore it is reasonable to think Michigan at least has a shot. Moeaki is gone too.

Prediction: Michigan has a legitimate shot, and this game will be pretty good overall, but in the end you must give the edge to Iowa; after all, this could be their year to go even further than they did last year.

Michigan's best chance is to be able to develop a power running game and keep it consistent as they did last year with Brandon Minor, only more consistent. Iowa has a 55% chance to win so I am only giving them a slight edge.

Week Eight: at Penn State Nittany Lions

Why Michigan could lose this game— The first thing to consider is how good Penn State has been over the last few years. Consistency has been a staple for Joe Paterno's boys and you can't help but like the guy.

Penn State will reload on defense because they are Penn State—even if they aren't as good on defense, they will be almost as good. Their defense alone could help them get to a January bowl.

Evan Royster will be back as well as most of the receivers and the offensive line should be better. Penn State has to replace Daryll Clark but they aren't without options. Kevin Newsome is essentially a blue-chip and Matt McGloin is tough, too.

Michigan's defense is a weakness versus Penn State's offense and their offense may not be ready to put up the 30 or so points they will most likely need to score to win.

Why Michigan could win this game— They are probably going to have a better chance to score than they did last year if they can stay healthy. The offensive line should be better and more athletic than 2009.

Tate Forcier and his entire supporting cast will be a year older and the passing game will be more in sync. If they can find a replacement for Brandon Minor they might be able to score enough points to make it interesting. It's difficult to truly predict how bad Michigan's defense will be at this point in the season.

They have nine guys back with starting experience, so if everyone gels and a few young guys step up earlier than expected, Penn State's offense might not do as well as most experts might project in this game.

Kevin Newsome will be young and a step down from Clark in 2010, and Michigan struggled on third-and-long last year, but often did well on first and second down.

Prediction: This matchup intrigues me because everything logical tells me that Penn State will win. They have dismantled Michigan two years in a row and this is in Happy Valley. However, Michigan has a good chance to pull the upset. Call it a gut feeling.

Ultimately, the best prediction is that at this point in time the Wolverines will lose this game. Undoubtedly, this game will be more competitive than the previous two years and may come down to who scores last. I'll give Penn State a 55% chance to win a close game.

Week Nine: Illinois Fighting Illini

Why Michigan could lose this game— Illinois has destroyed Michigan two years in a row. Michigan practices against a spread offense, yet Illinois and Juice Williams demolished them with some of the same old plays over and over.

Illinois has a lot of guys back, and even without Juice Williams and Arrelious Benn, could still score on the Wolverine's defense.

A lot will depend on who the quarterback is. If Eddie McGhee starts, Illinois could take advantage of heavy feet and put up 30 points.

Why Michigan could win this game— It's in Ann Arbor, they are older, and Illinois could still be the worst team in the Big Ten. Tate Forcier was productive as a freshman on the road, and may have a field day.

Without Juice and Benn, Illinois has lost two proven veterans who were extremely talented.

Prediction: Michigan will win, but it won't necessarily be easy. This is another must-win for the Wolverines so I'll give them a 55% chance at victory.

Thus, Michigan is 6-3 or 7-2 at this point, where they were 5-4 a year ago. Hopefully they are at least bowl eligible at this point.