2010 MLB Predictions: Can Kelly Johnson Be Fantasy Baseball Relevant in 2010?

Eric StashinFeb 24, 2010

Just one year ago Kelly Johnson was on everyone’s radar. Was he a tremendous option? No, he was your prototypical minimum power/minimum speed middle infielder, but as we head into 2010 he is a forgotten man. That’s what the following line can do for you:

303 At Bats
.224 Batting Average (68 Hits)
8 Home Runs
29 RBI
47 Runs
7 Stolen Bases
.303 On Base Percentage
.389 Slugging Percentage
.249 Batting Average on Balls in Play

What You Need To Know:

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He was destroyed by bad luck in ‘09, considering his ‘07 & ‘08 BABIPs were .330 and .344 (leading to averages of .276 and .287). While he may not return to that level, there’s little chance he struggles as badly as he did in ‘09 meaning a rebound in average is a given.
He showed an improved strikeout rate in ‘09, despite his other struggles, with a rate of 17.8 percent (the previous two seasons were 22.5 percent and 20.7 percent). If he can continue the better rate, it will be all the better.
Part of his problem last season was an increased fly ball rate, sitting at 43.1 percent. The prior two years were 38.5 percent and 36.5 percent. As I’ve said many times, balls hit in the air are less likely to find a hole. He puts the ball on the ground more and it will just further help his average.
He’s never going to hit many home runs or steal many bases. It’s possible that he goes just 10/10, but that’s really a best-case scenario. Look for low double-digit home runs (his career high is just 16), but the stolen bases will be borderline (he’s been between 7 and 11 the past three seasons).
His RBI and run potential will be determined by where he hits in the Diamondbacks lineup. If he’s slotted towards the top of the lineup (if Chris Young continues to struggle), then he’s going to score enough runs to make him viable. If he’s at the bottom of the lineup, he’s simply not going to make an impact.

2010 Projection:
.274 (137-500), 13 HR, 65 RBI, 70 R, 10 SB, .325 BABIP, .352 OBP, .430 SLG

Final Thoughts:
While he should rebound, that line is more of a middle infielder than anything else. Don’t overvalue him and consider him worth using in shallower formats. He’s waiver wire fodder and that’s it, unless you play in a deeper format.

What are your thoughts? Is Johnson someone that you consider worth using? What are you expecting from him in 2010?

If you would like to see a free preview of the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide (available for just $5), click here .

Make sure to check out some more of our 2010 projections, including: