Cleveland Browns QB Decision Pt. 2: Moving Forward With a First Round QB

In part two of the quarterback decision that Cleveland Browns President Mike Holmgren will have to make, we now look to a future in 2010 where Holmgren may want to keep current quarterback Brady Quinn, but he may also want to draft his choice as the future leader of the offense.

In the last article, I looked at the Browns' future if Holmgren moves forward with Brady Quinn as the starting quarterback in 2010 and the steps needed to help Quinn become more successful.

But what if Holmgren comes in on Jan. 4, and he wants to draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2010 NFL Draft to become the eventual replacement of Quinn since Holmgren has no long term faith in Quinn's abilities as a starter.

Right now, most of you are thinking, why would Holmgren keep Quinn, who is a first-round pick, and draft another first-round pick in 2010?

The reason is simple...better odds.

For as much talk as there is online about the New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady being a sixth round draft pick steal, there is also the cold hard facts that most NFL teams currently have a first-round pick as their current starter.

Here are those cold hard facts:

50-percent of NFL teams have a starting QB who was a first round pick .

9.3-percent of NFL teams have a starting QB who was a second round pick .

6.2-percent of NFL teams have a starting QB who was a third round pick .

6.2-percent of NFL teams have a starting QB who was a fourth round pick .

Zero NFL teams have a starting QB who was a fifth round pick .

9.3-percent of NFL teams have a starting QB who was a sixth round pick .

6.2-percent of NFL teams have a starting QB who was a seventh round pick .

9.3-percent of NFL teams have a starting QB who was undrafted .

See a common denominator?

Also, teams that have a first-round quarterback as a starter have won 53 percent of their games this year.

Based simply on this fact, having a first-round starter is the way to go in the NFL since there is a higher probability that an NFL team will find success with a first-round quarterback at the helm.

Obviously there is a high "bust" rate of first-round quarterbacks as well.

Since the Browns came back into the NFL in 1999, there have been 32 quarterbacks selected in the first round, and only 15 of them are currently starters in the NFL, which is a "bust" rate of 54 percent.

Those are not good odds, but that's the risk that a team takes with any first-round pick.

Enter Holmgren, who has a brilliant quarterback and offensive mind.

If there is anyone that can make the right first-round quarterback pick, it would be him.

Now the question is, who do the Browns pick as their quarterback of the future in 2010 at their current slot with the No. 6 overall pick?

Sam Bradford? Colt McCoy? Jimmy Clausen?

There are several 2010 NFL mock drafts that have the Browns picking Sam Bradford (hence the picture) since his abilities are the best fit for Holmgren's future plans for the offense.

How long would Quinn play before his leash got pulled and the 2010 first-round quarterback got to play?

What would then become of Quinn? Backup? Trade?

There are many questions in this scenario, and I'll let you comment on these and who the Browns should pick if they go this route with Holmgren as the boss.