Who's To Blame For The Saints Recent Struggles?

   The past three weeks New Orleans has started to struggle and some are saying the Saints are now the "Saint's again". In way's it is true. To truly define the Sean Payton/Drew Brees era you'd have to say it's high scoring offense led by Drew Brees' arm with little defense to help. But at the beginning of this season you could really see that wasn't the case as they took the time to establish the run, defense was forcing turnovers, and the play calling was dialed down a bit compared to recent years. Didn't really look like the Saint's of '07 and '08. The first 11 games the Saint's ran the ball 340 times for 1,665 yard's for an average of 30.0 carries per game and 151.3 yard's per game. They passed 343 time's for 3,117 yards for an average of 31.1 attempt's and 283.3 yards per game. That's almost perfect balance and it showed. The defense was also forcing turnover's at rate of 2.9 per game as compared to 1.6 the last three game's and only 1 in the last two game's. So it's easy to see that the defensive turnovers in the first 11 games were a big key to their success and point differential, especially being that several went for scores. The first 11 game's the Saint's outscored their opponent's by a total of 186 point's, the last three....minus 1. You can blame injuries to the secondary and offensive line all day but I'm not buying it. Yes I know that without your key defensive player's it make's it rough trying to keep up with the other team moving up and down the field but clock management can help cure the problem a little and that's what the Saint's have been lacking. Since Brees has been a Saint there has been 23 game's in which he's passed the ball more than 40 time's. How many of those game's did they win? Seven. He's 7-16 when passing 40 or more time's in a game. In 2006 they went 10-6 and lost in the NFC Championship Game, during that season he only had 3 game's in which he attempted 40 or more passes. In 2007 there were 9 and won 2 with a final record of 8-8, then in 2008 there were 7 games that he passed 40 or more time's and won 2 and finished 7-9. Is there a pattern here? It seems to be, because Brees did not have one game in the first 11 game's of this season that he passed 40 or more time's in a game and at that point they were 11-0, but the last 3 game's he has attempted 49, 40, and 45 with a 2-1 record in those game's but the two win's were only by 3 points a piece. Am I saying Brees is the reason for the stuggles or the more he passes the ball the greater chances of a loss? No! All I'm saying is that this season and 2006 they are a playoff team and in these two season's combined he's only passed 40 or more times in 7 games and that is close to the same amount as the entire 2007 season (9) and 2008 season (7). The more you pass, the less you run. In the last three game's they have only averaged 21 carries per game and have passed on an average of 44.6 times per game as compared to 30.9 rushes per game and 31.1 passes per game in the first eleven game's. By running the ball they were able to control the clock, force the opponents to pass more which causes mistakes, wear down the opposing defense, and rest their own defense. Now by passing all the time, their already wounded defense is getting worn down because they can't stop anyone to begin with, then the offense comes out and scrores quickly, then they're back out on the field again. Then come 4th quarter and if the game is close the defense may as well hang it up. They carried the ball only 13 time's against Dallas and that was split between Bush, Thomas, Bell, and two scrambles by Brees. How can any of those backs get into any groove if they only averaged around 3 carries a piece?

   So I'll say it...Sean Payton needs to get back to his conservative play calling like the beginning of the season and like in 2006. It's great to have a Quarterback like Brees who is now considered to be in the "elite" class but I dont care who your quarterback is they will have a bad game from time to time and if you put it all on their shoulders and he has a bad game then you will  probably lose or make it very hard to win, and if that game comes in the playoffs the only person to blame is the coach especially when you have Pierre Thomas (5.4 YPC), Mike Bell (4.1 YPC), and even Reggie Bush (5.4 YPC) who have not been getting the ball as much as they should recently. So if the Saints get back to form of being more balanced, rest some players for the playoffs, and hope to win this weekend to get home field advantage, then they will have a chance in the playoffs. If they dont it will be very hard with Dallas, Green Bay, Philly, and even Arizona picking up a little steam and being more balanced. Minnesota is also dangerous but have been showing struggles the past few weeks.