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Cheap, Late-Inning Relief Options

Michael AshkenasiDec 18, 2009

Thinking about how much of a bad streak Hendry has been on recently (the Bradley signing, the 2-year deal for John Grabow, not offering Rich Harden arbitration, etc.) I feel bad for Jim, and wanted to see what I can do to help him......Right now the Cubs bullpen looks like this:

CL -- Carlos Marmol

SU -- Angel Guzman, John Grabow

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LR  -- Sean Marshall

MR -- Justin Berg, Esmailin Caridad, Jeff Samardzija or Jon Gaub or Jeff Stevens

While I feel comfortable about the front 4 (even though Hendry waaaay overpaid Grabow and doesn't seem to pay any attention to a pitcher's WHIP), I'm not sold on the back end.....Berg and Caridad closed out  with a bang last year, but neither was on the team's radar as a major prospect and I don't see both being solid contributors going forward (maybe one, but not both....)

Samardzija is too inconsistent, Stevens dominated triple-A but couldn't translate it to big-league success, and Jon Gaub -- although absolutely filthy at double- and triple-A -- hasn't yet been up with the big leage club.

It's clear that at least 1 more veteran arm would be nice.  [Preface: I rely heavily on OPS-against as a quality indicator of future success.....]

Here are my free-agent relievers, ranked by preference, that could be obtained relatively cheaply:

1) Kiko Calero    

Upsides: Except for 2007, has an OPS under .640 the last 5 years. Only 4 HRs given up the last 3 years combined.

Downsides: Injured in parts of 2007-08.

Would offer:  2-year, $6-mil deal, and go as high as 3 years, $9 mil.

2) Doug Brocail

Upsides: Had an OPS under .680 in 2006-08. In 2009, OPS against RH of .662. 

Downsides: Subpar 2009 due to injury.

Would offer:  1-year, $2.5-mil deal, and go as high as 2 years, $4.5-mil.

3) Russ Springer

Upsides: Great in 2007-08. Except for 2009, has an OPS under .700 the last 5 years. .538 OPS against RH the last 3 years.

Downsides: Poor numbers in 2009, sometimes HR-prone...

Would offer: 1-year, $2.5-mil deal, and go as high as 2 years, $5-mil w/ $3.5 option for 2012.

4) Chad Bradford

Upsides: Except for 2007, has an OPS under .680 the last 5 years. Only 4 HRs given up the last 3 years combined. Pretty consistent submariner when healthy.

Downsides: Injured in parts of 2007-08.

Would offer:  2-year, $5-mil deal, w/ $3 club option for 2012.

5) Brian Shouse

Upsides: Great in 2007-08. .531 OPS against LH the last 3 years. Terrific lefty specialist.

Downsides: Awful in 2009.

Would offer:  1-year, $750,000 deal, and go as high as 1 year, $1.5 mil w/ 2011 option.

6) Brendan Donnelly

Upsides: Except for 2008, has an OPS under .700 every year of his career. Might be healthy for the first time in a long time, and could come cheap.

Downsides: Injury-prone, gopher-prone.

Would offer:  2-year, $3-mil, or as high as 2 years, $4 mil.

7) David Weathers

Upsides: He's a workhorse, and very versatile, having closed games for the Reds a couple of years.

Downsides: OPS under .700 in just 2 of the last 5 years.  Really more suited to middle-relief role than anything else....

Would offer: 2-year, $3-mil.   That's all.  Someone else will offer him more and regret it.

8) Fernando Rodney

Upsides: Experience closing, was 37 of 38 saves last year.

Downsides: ERA under 3.50 only once and gives up gophers. Really not a great pitcher, has a reputation as a fireballer that doesn't match the numbers.

Would offer: 2-year, $3-mil.  That's all.  Someone else will offer him more and regret it.

9) Guillermo Mota

Upsides: Great in 2009.

Downsides: In 2006-08, he was both not effective AND expensive.

Would offer: 2-year, $3-mil.  That's all.  Someone else will offer him more and regret it.

10) Alan Embree

Upsides: Lefty. Experienced.

Downsides: His numbers have gotten worse each of the last 3 years. I'm only putting him on this list to have a nice round top-10......

Would offer:  Minor-league deal.

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