Dissecting The Outback Bowl

When we finally awake on New Year's, the first game we will see is the Outback Bowl. Auburn has became accustomed to playing in bowl games to start off the new year, while this is something very unorthodox for Northwestern. Northwestern (8-4,5-3) will be playing for only the fourth time ever in school history on New Year's Day.

Both these teams seem to get it done the same way: a stifling offense, with a defense that can perform when necessary. Both teams' last game of the season puts it all in perspective. Auburn shutdown the soon-to-be Heisman Winner in Mark Ingram, and they almost upset the #1 team in the nation. As for Northwestern, they did perform an upset of #24 Wisconsin, and undoubtedly getting themselves to Tampa to play in the Outback Bowl. The Wildcats are looking for their second bowl win in school history, as they are 1-6 all time. Meanwhile, the Tigers come strolling in with a record of 19-13-2.

The Wildcats offense averaged 386 yards a game throughout the season, ranking 57th in the country. Breaking that number down even more, they passed the football right up there with the top teams in the nation with 282 yards a game, which ranked 29th. The passing attack had to be there with the lack of ability to run the football. One hundred-twenty yards won't get it done. That's a huge weakness and it could effect the outcome of the game.

Auburn's offensive attack, headed by the spread offense genius, Gus Malzahn, come in with a entirely different approach to the game. Malzahn's tricks helped his offense accumulate 432 total yards a game, ranking at 21st among the country. They definitely have a rushing attack. Senior Ben Tate and freshman Onterio McCaleb worked together for most of the season, leading the Tigers to a 13th overall ranking at 214 rushing yards a game. As for the passing game, it's not too bad either. Chris Todd came back from shoulder surgery and slung the ball across the field the entire season. With the way the running game went, 233 yards and a 53rd overall ranking isn't bad at all.

Now to the X-Factors:

Northwestern's offense revolves around one guy and it's very evident with his stats. Quarterback Mike Kafka is a do-it-all QB. This season, he threw for 12 TDs, along with 7 INTs. To add to those numbers, the guy has 7 rushing TDs, which leads Northwestern. The running game from the running backs haven't been there this season, so it seems that Kafka put it on himself to carry load; and that has been what he has done indeed. If he comes to play and is ready for Auburn's athletic defense, Kafka could easily lead his team to an Outback Bowl victory. However, he'll need some help coming from somewhere.

Andrew Brewer has been Kafka's favorite target throughout the year. He will have to step his game up against a very good Auburn secondary, lead by Walter McFadden. Brewer caught more than half of Kafka's TD passes with 7, so look for the two to try to hook up in the red zone. Brewer snagged 49 receptions for 792 yards, along with those 7 TDs during the season. He will be huge for the Wildcat offense.

This could be the most important factor to the game, besides which teams' defense steps up: production from the Northwestern backfield. Northwestern cannot feel good about the leader of their offense running the football and potentially taking some big hits from the defense. If the rushing attack can be just a bit successful, it could open the passing game more for Kafka.

Obviously, Auburn is going to try to get the running game opened up early with Ben Tate. If the ball is moved repeatedly by the Tigers, look forward to an easy stroll in the park for Auburn. The Northwestern defense is nothing to ride home about, and the last thing they need is a SEC power-back running around, over, and through them. He averaged 5.2 yards a carry this season, so if Northwestern can't stop him, they'll be in big trouble.

If Auburn wants to succeed, they will have to get some production from the receivers, most notably Darvin Adams and Terrell Zachery. As the season progressed, they seemed to improve and make themselves more available. The bottom line is this: if they can do well against SEC defenses, this should be a field day for the two of them. I'm sure Malzahn has came up with some tricks to use to utilize these guys even more, but they'll have to catch the football. They both have great stats: Adams- 48 receptions for 855 yards and 10 TDs; Zachery- 24 receptions for 466 yards and 5 TDs. In my opinion, I think they could torch the Wildcat D in this one.

Here's my biggest factor for Auburn: the all-around defense. They have some great players and leaders at each level on defense. Antonio Coleman heads the D-Line, and they will be coming after Mike Kafka. He better be ready to run. At the linebackers, you have Josh Bynes, or the Mark Ingram stopper. Bynes, along with the rest of the Tiger defense did a great job holding Heisman winner Mark Ingram in-check in the Iron Bowl. Bynes will try to confuse Kafka as much as he can, while coming after him and sitting back into coverage. Walter McFadden is the man in the secondary. Look for him to stay close to Brewer and make it tough on Kafka as he can easily return an interception for a TD.

Not being a homer or anything, but I think Auburn will win this, but not by as much as experts think. The Northwestern offense will challenge the Tigers, but I think the difference will be the QB play and whichever defense can hold it's ground. Saying that, I have to go with my Tigers. The defense is way too athletic to let Kafka beat them by himself. Northwestern has proved it can play defense as well, beating Wisconsin and Iowa, but this is the SEC. I'm not sure they can handle it. I also think that Gus Malzahn will play a huge part in this game. He'll have more and more tricks to showcase. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some trickery on the first play of the game. Defensive coordinator Ted Roof, who was the head coach at Minnesota last year, knows Northwestern well enough to be prepared for what's coming. I say Auburn by 2 touchdowns.