No Road Blocks in Buffalo: Must Win For Patriots

Overview:  The Patriots are in a must win situation versus Buffalo this weekend. The Jets and Dolphins both won last week to keep New England’s lead to one game in the surprisingly tight AFC East race.

It’s an important and tough road contest where the Patriots haven’t won all season (Tampa in London just doesn’t count). It’s a critical division and conference game which will play a big role in playoff positioning. It’s a MUST WIN.

Buffalo would like nothing better than playing spoiler. They had the Patriots on the ropes opening night, but the Bills will look to close the deal this time around.

Last Week:  The Patriots (8-5) won an ugly game versus Carolina, 20-10 last week at home. They looked listless in the first half and committed three turnovers that they were able to overcome.  Randy Moss was virtually invisible with one catch and a costly fumble. The boo birds were out and the press has been ripping him this week for dogging it.

Buffalo (5-8) has been playing well since the firing of head coach, Dick Jauron, winning 2 of their last 3 games. The Bills beat a struggling Kansas City team, 16-10 on the road. The defense picked off Matt Cassel four times and their potent running attack amassed 200 yards on the ground versus the Chiefs.

All-Time Series: The Patriots and Bills will meet for the 100^th time this week. New England holds a 58-40-1 edge in the all time series. The 58 wins are the most versus any opponent for the Patriots. New England has won 17 of the last 19 games between the clubs.

New England escaped with a 25-24 opening night victory on September 14^th at Gillette Stadium. Tom Brady shook off some of the rust to find Ben Watson on consecutive touchdown passes to lead the fourth quarter comeback. This victory was huge in hind sight.

Key Questions:

New England:  Can they win on the road in a hostile environment? Will Randy Moss shut up his detractors?

Yes the same old song and dance when it comes to the road for the Patriots. They can not allow to be road blocked in Buffalo. New England needs to have a COMPLETE game versus a division foe that is ready to upset their rival.

Losing this game would be devastating due to division and conference record tiebreakers. The Patriots have no room for error the rest of the season.

The same goes for Randy Moss.

Is he hurt (which I believe)?

Is he dogging it like he did in Oakland and at times in Minnesota?

After his disappearing act against Carolina, Moss must come out with a strong effort. The only way to shut up his haters is to light up the Buffalo secondary. I have a feeling Brady and Moss will torch the Bills with some Welker sprinkled in.

Buffalo: Can the Bills defense shut down the Patriots offense?

Buffalo has it job cut out for them against New England’s second ranked offense. They must produce turnovers and the offense must make the Patriots pay for them. Carolina won the turnover battle last week 3-0, but couldn’t convert many points.

The secondary has to stop Welker who tore up Carolina for 10 catches and 105 yards. They must bump Moss and keep him off his game. Buffalo can not forget a Patriots running game that found its legs last week.

Players To Watch:

New England Patriots: Randy Moss

Randy Moss will get his opportunities to silence his critics. He needs to make some big catches and find the end zone a few times.  If he puts up another stinker, the press will have a field deal on him again and the pressure could be suffocating.

Buffalo Bills:  Ryan Fitzpatrick, Terrell Owens

A performance like last week versus Kansas City (90 yards, 1td, and 1int) by Fitzpatrick is not going to cut it. The Bills need to stretch the Patriots secondary and get the ball to Terrell Owens. New England has let up big plays in the passing game all season.

Predictions: Patriots by 14

Randy Moss (12 catches for 141 yards) and Wes Welker (12 catches for 93 yards) should have a field day versus Buffalo as they did in the season opener. We all know Welker will stick his nose out but the jury out is on Moss. Moss needs to and will have a big game versus Buffalo.

The New England defense will have to get to Fitzpatrick to make the Bills one dimensional. The Patriots defense should be able to confuse Fitzpatrick and neutralize the running game.

Yes I am going out on a limb and predicting a complete road win.

Final Score: Patriots 21, Bills 7

Joe Gill is a featured blogger for Boston Sports Then and Now, Rootzoo.com and Trufan.com