IDP Wednesday: Week 15

12/16/2009

Welcome to another IDP Wednesday. Hopefully, you were able to get past your first round matchup and are fighting to go to the championship this week. If you had Curtis Lofton or David Harris, consider yourself fortunate as both players' performance last week surely brought more than a couple teams down. So, with that said, let's get to it.

Similar to the last couple of weeks, I have listed the Favorable Five and the Formidable Five teams over the last five weeks of the season at each position and shown whom that team faces this week. I've also added who has been the best teams to play for the entire year at each position.

For those not interested in the charts and just want the recommendations, I will start with the Analysis at the beginning this week instead of the end for you.

Quick Note: Please keep in mind, the Analysis portion doesn't take into consideration weather conditions or if it's a divisional game—both factors that have seem to inconsistantly skew the numbers for a given team. For example, if the wind is howling, you can expect there to be an inordinate amount of running plays by both teams and divisional teams now have film on the other team to change game plans, etc.

With that said, both should be considered when you are planning on using a player each week. I just want to make sure you remember.

So, as I have throughout this year, I will be using the following point system for my analysis:

My Preferred IDP Scoring System

Solo	Assists	Sack	Int	FF	PD	TD
2	1	4	4	3	2	6

Analysis

DL

Favorable

Over the last five weeks and the entire year, the New York Jets and New England Patriots have consistently been favorable match-ups for opposing defensive ends to play. Like some of the previous weeks, you have to like Aaron Schobel and Chris Kelsay this week for Buffalo. You also have to like Kroy Biermann and John Abraham.


Formidable

Over the same time period from above, the Indianapolis Colts have consistently been one of the worst teams for an opposing defensive end to play. If you are thinking about putting in Derrick Harvey, you might want to think twice about it.

MLB/ILB

Favorable

Over the last five weeks and the entire year, the New England Patriots, Houston Texans, and the Seattle Seahawks have been very good to middle linebackers and inside linebackers. If you have Paul Posluzsny, James Laurinaitis, or Barrett Ruud, you should probably use them this week.

Formidable

Like Indianapolis to defensive ends, San Diego has consistently been in the bottom five teams for an MLB/ILB to play all year, thus far. Even though Dhani Jones had a nice game last week, don't be surprised if he doesn't in this one.

WLB/OLB

Favorable

The Oakland Raiders, Seattle Seahawks, and New York Giants have been very friendly to the OLB position over the last five weeks and all year. Elvis Dumervil, Geno Hayes, and Rocky McIntosh should all be better than normal this week.

Formidable

Both the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars have found themselves in the bottom five for the WLB/OLB position all year. If you are planning to use Clint Sessions or Daryl Smith, be cautious. With that said, remember what I said in the Quick Note section from above about divisional games, though.

S

Favorable

The New Orleans Saints, Denver Broncos, and Carolina Panthers have been in the top five all year for opposing safeties (including the last five weeks). Gerald Sensabaugh, Tyvon Branch, and Madieu Williams should be better than normal this week.

Formidable

As good as the Saints, Broncos, and Carolina have been, the Philadelphia Eagles and Buffalo Bills have been on the exact opposite end of the spectrum. If you plan on using Dashon Goldson or Brandon Meriweather, make sure you don't have better options first.

CB

Favorable

The New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers have been good to the CB position all year and the last five weeks. If the weather isn't terrible, Charles Woodson should be good this week, and Tramon Williams and Fred Smoot could potentially be sneaky plays, as well.

Formidable

As for the other end, the Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers, and Oakland Raiders have been in the bottom five teams all year for CBs. Brandon Flowers, Sheldon Brown, and Champ Bailey should all be downgraded a bit.

Good luck to all of you this week on getting to the championship. For those that are data-junkies like myself, here is more information to wrap your brains around for you to make your decisions on who to play this week:

DL (Team to Left is Ranked Team, Team to Right is Opponent)

Over the Last Five Weeks

Favorable Five

1	@NYJ	ATL
2	NE	@BUF
3	@STL	HOU
4	@BAL	CHI
5	@BUF	NE

Formidable Five

1	IND	@JAC
2	ARI	@DET
3	@WAS	NYG
4	TB	@SEA
5	GB	@PIT

Over the Entire Year

Favorable Five

1	GB	@PIT
2	@NYJ	ATL
3	NE	@BUF
4	@JAC	IND
5	SF	@PHI

Formidable Five

1	DAL	@NO
2	IND	@JAC
3	ATL	@NYJ
4	NYG	@WAS
5	CIN	@SD

MLB/ILB (Team to Left is Ranked Team, Team to Right is Opponent)

Over the Last Five Weeks

Favorable Five

1	NE	@BUF
2	HOU	@STL
3	@SEA	TB
4	@TEN	MIA
5	@NYJ	ATL

Formidable Five

1	SF	@PHI
2	@SD	CIN
3	@CAR	MIN
4	CIN	@SD
5	MIN	@CAR

Over the Entire Year

Favorable Five

1	NE	@BUF
2	@SEA	TB
3	MIA	@TEN
4	@NO	DAL
5	HOU	@STL

Formidable Five

1	@SD	CIN
2	GB	@PIT
3	ATL	@NYJ
4	@PHI	SF
5	DAL	@NO

WLB/OLB (Team to Left is Ranked Team, Team to Right is Opponent)

Over the Last Five Weeks

Favorable Five

1	OAK	@DEN
2	@SEA	TB
3	@STL	HOU
4	NYG	@WAS
5	ATL	@NYJ

Formidable Five

1	@DET	ARI
2	@WAS	NYG
3	IND	@JAC
4	NE	@BUF
5	@JAC	IND

Over the Entire Year

Favorable Five

1	CLE	@KC
2	NYG	@WAS
3	@SEA	TB
4	OAK	@DEN
5	@DET	ARI

Formidable Five

1	IND	@JAC
2	@NYJ	ATL
3	@PHI	SF
4	@PIT	GB
5	@JAC	IND

S (Team to Left is Ranked Team, Team to Right is Opponent)

Over the Last Five Weeks

Favorable Five

1	@DEN	OAK
2	@NO	DAL
3	CIN	@SD
4	@CAR	MIN
5	@STL	HOU

Formidable Five

1	ATL	@NYJ
2	@PHI	SF
3	@BUF	NE
4	@WAS	NYG
5	HOU	@STL

Over the Entire Year

Favorable Five

1	@NO	DAL
2	@DEN	OAK
3	NYG	@WAS
4	@SEA	TB
5	@CAR	MIN

Formidable Five

1	@BUF	NE
2	OAK	@DEN
3	SF	@PHI
4	@PHI	SF
5	@SD	CIN

CB (Team to Left is Ranked Team, Team to Right is Opponent)

Over the Last Five Weeks

Favorable Five

1	NYG	@WAS
2	@DET	ARI
3	@DEN	OAK
4	@PIT	GB
5	HOU	@STL

Formidable Five

1	@JAC	IND
2	CLE	@KC
3	SF	@PHI
4	OAK	@DEN
5	@SEA	TB

Over the Entire Year

Favorable Five

1	@PIT	GB
2	ARI	@DET
3	NYG	@WAS
4	ATL	@NYJ
5	@BAL	CHI

Formidable Five

1	CLE	@KC
2	OAK	@DEN
3	@KC	CLE
4	SF	@PHI
5	@TEN	MIA

You can always checkout the latest posts from Justin Curry at NumbersAndGuts.com.