Liver's NFL Week 13 Picks

This had to be one of the more entertaining sports weeks this year. Bobby Bowden, Charlie Weis and BIG Mark Mangino are gone, Tiger Woods had cell phone issues, Mrs. Tiger found a better way to use his clubs, Ron Artest admitted drinking Hennessy during halftime of Bulls games, and The New Jersey Nets set a new futility mark to start an NBA season at 0-18.

The Texas Longhorn's win over Texas A&M wasn’t pretty, but that should put the appropriate scare into The Liver’s beloved Longhorns as they look to seal up a spot in the national championship with a win against Nebraska on Saturday in the Big 12 Championship. I’m also going to be the biggest Alabama fan you’ve ever seen on Saturday as well.

I’d sleep a little easier knowing it would be Texas/Alabama rather than Texas/Florida. There’s too much big game experience with Florida and Tim Tebow. But, the Conservative Christian media would just LOVE it if two good Christian boys like Tebow and Colt McCoy faced off against each other.

What was I saying about games getting harder to pick as the season rolls into December and January? What was I saying about the 2009 NFL season going down as “The Year of the Concussion?”

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY . Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Bob Griese, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Bill Belichick, Steve Phillips, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Elizabeth Lambert, Tiger Woods, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World) and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Last week’s record: 6-9-1

2009 record against the spread:  106-68-2 (.609)


Sunday, December 6

Denver at Kansas City (+5)
Denver got its pulse back with the dismantling of the New York Giants on Thanksgiving and Josh McDaniels just wants to win another  (expletive) game. After that sound bite on Thanksgiving, Josh McDaniels is my new favorite coach. Despite the Chiefs’ woes, Arrowhead is still a tough place to play this time of the year and the Broncos are 1-16 in December games at Arrowhead.  Pick: Kansas City

Oakland at Pittsburgh (-14 ½)
Dennis Dixon actually looked pretty good in that Baltimore Ravens game, until he threw that inevitable pick in overtime. Ben Roethlisberger will play here and the Steelers will end their three-game slide here. The question is by how much? I get the feeling of a Steelers rout here, but then again, who doesn’t rout the Raiders? This is definitely a gamble here, but I just see that defense mauling the Raiders offense. Pick: Pittsburgh    
 
Houston at Jacksonville (PK)
Houston maintained its reputation last weekend as it choked away another game. I’m done betting on them this year. They have serious problems getting motivated late in these games when they should be putting teams away. Pick: Jacksonville

Tennessee at Indianapolis (-7)
Is there anyone who ISN’T picking Tennessee to cover here? Who doesn’t want to see Tennessee make history by making the playoffs after that 0-6 start? Right now, Chris Johnson is 1B in the MVP race to Brett Favre’s 1A. I’m picking Tennessee until they lose and, in case you haven’t noticed, Vince Young doesn’t lose very often. Pick: Tennessee  

Philadelphia at Atlanta (+5 ½)
Remember WAY BACK during training camp when we all thought this would be billed as “Mike Vick’s return to Atlanta” game? I’d like to hear some odds on the over/under for how many times he actually sets foot on the field. No Matt Ryan here which means Chris Redman time. Philly has some key players injured for this game with Brian Westbrook and DeSean Jackson out. Maybe Vick is a factor here.

This was one of the tougher games to decide on but I just don’t trust Andy Reid or Filthy right now with that many points on the road. Remember, that this is the same team that lost to JaMarcus freaking Russell and the Raiders in Oakland earlier this year when they were reasonably healthy. Pick: Atlanta

Detroit at Cincinnati (-13)
Damn you Bengals. You can’t beat the Browns by 14 points? The Lions haven’t won a road game since Oct. 28, 2007. The chances of them winning here, are as bright as the an American have walking into an emergency room in the middle of the night, telling the doctor that they don’t have health insurance and expecting them to fulfill The Hippocratic Oath. The Bengals seem to have real problems with these crappy teams. When they play the Steelers, they have no problems. When they play the Browns, they have problems. Still a little bitter over that one. Pick: Detroit

New Orleans at Washington (+9 ½)
Looks like the Saints reminded us all that if that NFC Championship game is played in New Orleans, you can pencil them in the Super Bowl. Drew Brees looked like a master surgeon Monday night as he just tore the New England secondary apart. Washington has been covering lately and New Orleans might have a bit of a letdown after that dominating Monday night win. Pick: Washington

Tampa Bay at Carolina (-6 ½)
Damn you Jake Delhomme. Just when you start playing well and everyone, including The Liver, decides to pick you to cover for two weeks, you revert back to the guy that was throwing picks coming off the team bus back at the beginning of the season. At least he’s out with a broken finger on his throwing hand and that means Matt Moore time. Pick: Tampa Bay

St. Louis at Chicago (-9)
Jay Cutler is still the starting QB for the Bears, correct? Then again, Kyle Boller is the starting QB for the Rams. That’s like deciding which midget to bet on in a wrestling match. Pick: St. Louis

New England at Miami (+4)
Okay, I think I can say this without any hesitation; the Patriots are not a great team anymore. I can’t believe I just said that about a team with Tom Brady starting at QB and Bill Belichick coaching. That team got ran out of New Orleans and that defense is just AWFUL . Put them up against a good offense and they get shredded. At least we know why Belichick went for it on fourth and two against the Colts. What is it with the Patriots struggling on the road? Did you ever think you’d see the Patriots flexed OUT of a Sunday night game? The Dolphins can still give the Patriots some wild cat trouble, but unless Chad Henne can attack the Patriots secondary, the Pats should win easily here. Pick: New England

San Diego at Cleveland (+12 ½)
San Diego scares the CRAP out of me right now. I know they’re drilling bad teams, but I’m thinking of next week when they come calling to The Death Star in Arlington to face the Cowboys. Again, classic case of a hot team playing a cold team. If the Chargers rolled up an improving, but not good Chiefs team, God only knows what they’ll do here. Looks like that’ll be a career for Jamal Lewis after suffering a concussion last week. Pick: San Diego

San Francisco at Seattle (PK)
San Francisco may be able to run the ball here, but they are just 1-4 on the road. Seattle, despite its numerous injuries, is a tough team at home. I hate this NFC West division. This is one of those games I could go back and forth with for hours. Obviously, Vegas thinks the same thing. Pick: Seattle

Dallas at N.Y. Giants (+1)
It’s December and we all know what that means for the Cowboys over the last few years. But, as usual, I’m going to hope against hope that this team actually plays its best ball when it matters most which is NOW . Not to be a Cowboys excuse maker, BUT they do have arguably the toughest schedule in the NFL from here on out. This is a game they MUST win as they are going up against a battered Giants defense and a sluggish Eli Manning who really hasn’t been the same since the plantar fasciitis.

The Cowboys control their own destiny as they face all three NFC East division opponents (Giants, Redskins and Filthy Philly) along with a home games against the San Diego Chargers and a road game at New Orleans. Winning their division games will seal the division and at least guarantee that they go into the playoffs with some positive momentum. If they blow it here, expect the same old December/January blues from these Cowboys.

You can also expect Tony Romo and Miles Austin’s trip to Vegas over their 10-day post-Thanksgiving layoff to be called into question as well. Let’s see how much trash Brandon Jacobs talks here if the Cowboys shut his fat butt down. Maybe Tony Romo can inscribe something on the Giants Stadium locker room wall after the Cowboys win like “Just won the last meaningful game ever played here. T.R. – December 6, 2009.”  Pick: Dallas

Minnesota at Arizona (+3)
NBC has their wet flex dream here as they get Brett Favre and the rolling Vikings in what could be a shootout with the Cardinals. Hate to say it, but the old bastard really is playing some of his best ball EVER . Twenty-four TDs and three picks this late into the season for Favre, is near impossible to imagine considering he had been averaging in the high teens (pick-wise) the last three years.

It really has been the perfect fit for him; great running game, great offensive line, great rookie receiver, and a dominant pass rush. It’s hard not to start getting ready for the possibility of an NFC Championship match-up with the Saints. Hopefully, the Cowboys can screw that up. Kurt Warner is still questionable for this one which could mean more Matt Leinart. Pick: Minnesota

Monday, December 7

Baltimore at Green Bay (-3)
Expect playoff intensity here as both teams are fighting for wild card spots and can not afford any more losses. Baltimore’s defense has been playing better as the season has gone on and Ray Rice is running the ball hard. This could be a game where the absence of Aaron Kampman and Al Harris is felt for the Packers. For some reason, Joe Flacco doesn’t look nearly as confident as he did last season.  Pick: Green Bay