Texas - Nebraksa: Can The Huskers Help TCU Leap to the Top?

If there is one thing Frog fans are pulling for on Saturday, it is a Nebraska upset of Texas at Cowboys stadium, located just a few miles east of TCU.

For TCU to make the BCS title game, Texas must lose in the Big 12 title game.  Even then, TCU is not guaranteed a chance for the BCS title, as strange things may happen to result in a different team being No. 2 in the final BCS standings.

The Huskers are a two-touchdown underdog to the Longhorns and seemingly have no chance.  Nebraska has struggled on offense all season and Texas appears fully capable of dominating Big Red on offense and defense.

However, the line has been falling as people start wondering if Texas can score enough points on the solid Nebraska defense.

The Decline of Big Red

Nebraska was one of the most dominating programs in college football when the Big 12 was formed, going to three of the first four Big 12 championship games. 

From 1963 to 2003 Nebraska appeared in the AP Poll, finishing in the top 15 every year but two from 1963 to 2001.

Simply put—Nebraska was one of the true powers in college football.

In the sixth year of the Big 12, Nebraska went to the BCS title game at the Rose Bowl, even though Nebraska had not won its division or its final regular season game.

Nebraska has not had a ten win season Fank Solich was fired in 2003 for only winning ten games.

But the fall came hard.  Since the 2001 season, Nebraska has not appeared in a single final AP top 15.

The Bill Callahan experiment proved a relative failure, with two losing seasons and only one shared Big 12 North title.

Now, a lot of different explanations arise for the decline of Big Red.

The firing of a ten-win coach is a prime contender.

Another possible reason relates to changes in academic standards between the Big 8 and Big 12, introduced by the insistence of Texas.

In any event, the decline has only stopped with the hire of Bo Pelini.  Pelini took over last year and quickly brought some life back into Big Red, especially on defense.

Nebraska finished 21st in rushing defense and 14th in sacks in 2008.

In 2009, Nebraska regained its defensive reputation—No. 4 in Pass Efficiency Defense, No. 3 Scoring Defense, No. 15 Rushing Defense, and No. 11 Total Defense.  Only one team, Texas Tech, put up more than 20 points on the Huskers.

Unfortunately for the Huskers, the offense has fallen off completely as it transitions from Callahan's pass happy offense to Pelini's more traditional ground-oriented attack

Texas Offense vs. Nebraska Defense

Texas under Colt McCoy seems to be an offensive powerhouse, but appearances can be deceiving.

Twice Texas was held under 300 yards of total offense, with two times under 350 yards.

The Longhorn pass offense has been almost pedestrian at times—held under 206 yards four times.

The Longhorns have faced only one tough defense, Oklahoma, and failed offensively in that game.

It is unlikely that things will change much against Nebraska, so we can expect somewhere in the range of 250 total yards and 15 points.

Texas Defense vs. Nebraska Offense

Now, the Texas defense is currently ranked No. 5 overall.  Texas has not fared well against superior offensives (Texas A&M and Texas Tech both put up huge numbers on the Longhorns), but that will not be a worry here.

The Huskers do run the ball decently and may find success keeping the ball on the ground.

Overall, Nebraska will be lucky to put up two touchdowns on the Longhorns defense.

Texas is very good at interceptions, with 21 on the season, four of which were returned for touchdowns.

Special Teams

Neither team has a good punting game, which bodes very well for Texas.

Texas is No. 3 in kickoff returns and No. 15 in punt returns, with three kickoffs returned for touchdowns, as well as four punt returns.  It was a kickoff return for a touchdown that helped Texas secure victory over A&M on Thanksgiving.

Given Texas's return ability, Texas has a decent chance of returning a kick in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Prediction

Texas has a much better offense and a much better return game than the Huskers.  Everything else is basically equal.

Texas has problems containing high-powered offenses, but Nebraska lacks that.  Likewise, Texas has problems moving the ball against even above average defenses, and Nebraska's is excellent, not merely above average.

Ultimately, Texas' ability to break open a game by way of a return or Colt's passing and running ability will likely be the determining factors in this game.

However, this will be a low-scoring, hard-fought game where only a few plays will determine the outcome.

Unfortunately for Frog and Husker fans, I think this one will go the way of the Longhorns, 17-10. 

As such, Texas will most likely be heading to Pasadena and Boise State will get its second BCS invitation. 

TCU will mostly only have a chance to finish undefeated and No. 2 in the nation, but such is life in the silly BCS world.