BCS Championship Preview: Texas vs. SEC Title Contenders

Saturday's game between Florida and Alabama will only officially decide the Southeastern Conference champion. But might it also decide the national champion.

Barring a Nebraska upset of Texas, the winner of the Gators-Crimson Tide matchup will face the Longhorns in the Bowl Championship Series National Championship Game on Jan. 7 in Pasadena.

If the Longhorns make it, do they stand a chance against the SEC champ?

Texas currently ranks in the top 15 in terms of yardage per game, but a closer look indicates that the Longhorns might come up short offensively against Alabama or Florida. The Longhorns rank outside the top 30 at 5.96 yards per play and would face one of the nation's top four defenses in the championship game.

On the ground, Texas ranks well off the pace of the nation's leaders, averaging just 4.40 yards per carry. If the Longhorns make the national championship, they’ll be taking that ground game up against one of the nation's best run defenses as both Alabama and Florida give up less than three yards per carry.

The Horns' passing numbers are similarly deceiving to their overall offesnive numbers. With Heisman Trophy candidate Colt McCoy at the helm, they rank 13th in the nation in terms of passing yards per game, but Texas averages just 7.47 yards per pass attempt, a number that ranks outside the top 25.

No defense is better against the pass than the Crimson Tide this season, as they give up just 5.06 yards per pass. Florida isn't far behind, giving up just 5.16.

With Texas' offense contained by one of the best defensive units in the country, the Longhorns' defense will have to hold up on its end to ensure a knock-down, drag-it-out affair.

Their numbers—Texas joins Alabama, Florida and TCU as the only teams giving up less than four yards per play—may indicate that the Horns can do just that. But the Tide are one of 33 teams averaging at least six yards per play on offense and the Gators boast the seventh-best offense in the country at 6.77 yards per play.

No defense has been better against the run than Texas and the Longhorns are tops by a longshot. At 1.99 yards per carry, they are the only team in the nation giving up less than two yards per play on the ground.

They’d have to make those numbers hold up against one of the nation's top 15 rushing attacks whether they take on Florida or Alabama. Both teams average more than five yards per carry.

The Longhorns are solid against the pass, but not quite up to the same dominance that Florida and Alabama have enjoyed on defense. But if Texas faced Tim Tebow and the Gators, the Longhorns would be up against one of the top 10 passing offenses in the country in terms of yards per attempt at 8.79 yards per toss.

The Tide sits a bit further back, but would still bring in a passing attack that averages 7.39 yards per pass.

Texas still has to get by Nebraska, but even if it does, it might be locked in an uphill battle with an SEC foe.

In 10,000 simulations against SEC favorite Florida, the Gators take care of the Longhorns 72 percent of the time by about a touchdown at 24-17. And in 10,000 simulations with the underdog Crimson Tide, Alabama holds off Texas by an average score of 21-16, winning 64 percent of the games.

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Eric Schmoldt is a writer for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at [e-mail] . Thanks!