Will Oregon St. Win at Oregon Push Cincinnati Past Texas In BCS Rankings?

The BCS, the awkward, unfair method of determining who plays for the National Championship of College Football could be in store for a shock if No. 16 Oregon State (8-3) beats to No. 7 Oregon (9-2) Thursday night, Dec 3.

In a nationally televised ESPN game, the OSU Beavers will face the Oregon Ducks to decide the winner of the PAC Ten, and a trip to the Rose Bowl.  What makes this game so interesting is the impact it could have on the BCS rankings. 

The Cincinnati Bearcats (11-0), currently No. 5 in the BCS rankings, aren't expecting to play in the National Championship Game with four undefeated teams ranked ahead of them.  That could change!

The Bearcats will be playing for their own conference championship when they travel to No. 15 Pittsburgh (9-2) and play for the Big East title, Saturday, Dec 5.  It's a game they have to win and if they do—they are guaranteed to move up to No. 4 when the BCS releases its next rankings.

They and No. 4 TCU (12-0) are going to move up one spot because the loser of this weeks Florida/Alabama game will drop out of the top two spots in the rankings.  Florida (12-0), ranked No. 1 in the BCS and Alabama (12-0), No. 2 in the BCS meet for the SEC Championship in Atlanta on Saturday.

The loser of this game is going to drop a couple of spots.  That's how the system works. 

Back to Cincinnati:  If Oregon State beats Oregon on Thursday night, Cincinnati will have a resume that includes and 10 point road win over the PAC Ten Conference Champion.  Cincinnati traveled to Corvallis, Oregon on Sept 19 and beat the Beavers 28-18.

What would make the Bearcats win over Oregon State so special is that, if the Beavers walk away with the PAC Ten crown on Thursday, they would have a real good road win over the winner of arguably 2009's best conference.

Texas (12-0), ranked No. 3 in the BCS, is the team that Cincinnati and TCU are trying to jump, in order to have a shot at playing the winner of the SEC Championship in the National Championship game.

A win over the PAC Ten champion would be a rather nice feather in the cap of Cincinnati—probably their best win of the year.  Texas' best win?  Hard to say.  Maybe a 41-14 beating of No. 20 Oklahoma State?  Maybe a 16-13 win over unranked Oklahoma (7-5).

Texas gets to play No. 22 Nebraska (9-3) in this weekend's Big 12 Championship.

If Texas beats Nebraska, and they're a two touchdown favorite, that would mean that besides the Texas Longhorns, the only other Big 12 team in the Top 25 would be Oklahoma State.  The Big 12 is not what is has been over the last couple of seasons.

Cincinnati has played a Big East schedule, and if they win their game against Pittsburgh, they would most likely be one of only two or three conference teams in the Top 25.  Pittsburgh would drop a couple of spots, depending how they perform and West Virginia, currently No. 23, would gain a few spots if they beat Rutgers on Saturday, and drop out of the top 25 if they lose.

The possibilities that this week's games create are unpredictable and uncertain—that's what makes an Oregon State victory so huge for Cincinnati.  To have beaten the PAC Ten Champion, on the road, by 10 points would be highly impressive.

If this scenario plays out, the coaches are not likely to make any significant change in the polls, but the computer might.  It's a long shot, but it's not out of the realm of possibility!

There's another team that will be watching the Oregon State/Oregon game carefully.  No. 6 Boise State (12-0) defeated Oregon earlier this season and if the Ducks prevail  —Boise St. can make the claim that they have a victory over the PAC Ten Champions.

Boise State is not likely to jump Cincinnati or TCU if Oregon wins, but it would become very difficult for a BCS Bowl to exclude an undefeated team with a win over the PAC Ten Champions.

The Cincinnati Bearcats can't be thinking about the computer and what it might spit out.  They have to keep their minds on Pittsburgh.  They can't worry about things they have no control over.

They also have to keep their minds off the rumors swirling around about their coach, Brian Kelly, leaving to take the Notre Dame job.