Boise State, Nevada and The WAC: What It Will Take For Wolf Pack To Win, Someday

The BSU-Nevada rivalry is one of the most interesting in college football, at least to me. BSU has defeated Nevada ten straight and arguably deserves their "decade of dominance" moniker.

But if you look at the the last three clashes these titans have had, a curious pattern emerges; one that provides a glimpse of how Nevada may be able to defeat the Broncos next year.

Consider these data: In 2007 Nevada fell behind 28-21 in the first half only to outscore BSU 23 -16 in the second half tying the game at the end of the 4th quarter, before going on to lose by 2 points in 4 OT's.

In 2008, Nevada fell behind in the first half 24 - 3, only to outscore BSU 31 - 17 in the second half, losing by 7.

In 2009, Nevada once again fell behind 20 - 0 early only to outscore BSU 33 -24 from the second quarter on, losing by11.

In three games, Nevada has scored 134 points against one of college football's elite teams and managed to lose all of them by a slim combined margin of only 20 points.

One could argue, especially in the most recent games, that for significant periods, Nevada can outplay BSU. They just can't do it for four quarters.

What does BSU do that allows them to prevail every time? Well, besides the obvious fact that they are a great team of superb athletes and terrific coaches, they play in a pattern. They jump out early and do just just enough to hang on to win.

Nevada's pattern is the opposite. They dig themselves in a huge hole early, usually with defensive blunders and then mount a furious comeback in which they outplay BSU for 2 or even 3 quarters only to lose a close game. The psychological impact of this all too familiar pattern gives BSU huge confidence early and creates anxiety and urgency for the Pack.

They key, it seems to me, is to disrupt that pattern. BSU always comes out fired up on offense. Nevada's defense always seems to start slow. BSU often has a new play variation that does something to confuse the Wolf Pack early in the game. They go for the jugular from the opening kickoff. 

But Nevada has something. They have proven they can outplay BSU for significant portions of a game.

Nevada has plenty of offense. They need to continue to fine tune that. What they really need to work on is a way to jump start the defense earlier in the game and prevent BSU from getting that early lead.

Their defensive breakdowns early in games seem to fall into a few limited categories: kickoff returns for TD's; broken coverage that leaves receivers open and missed tackles. All of these problems can be improved upon by next season. What's needed is a careful categorization of the defensive errors and implementation a specific training program to rectify them. 

Something is wrong on special teams, specifically with kickoff return coverage. They give up too many of these for TD's. I wish I knew how to fix that but my hunch is that it is a tactical / technical skill deficit. Broken coverage cost Nevada the 2009 game. That, I think is a communication issue; who is covering whom? Finally, missed tackles are a technical skill that can also be worked on. I'm sure there are other observations that smarter football minds than mine can identify.

But, if Nevada can change the dynamic and come out strong from the start, they can turn the tables on BSU. They have to play in the first quarter like they do in the second half. If Nevada could jump out first, that would un-nerve BSU and could provoke errors upon which the Pack could capitalize. Once anxiety sets is, performance usually deteriorates. The key is to create anxiety by disrupting the pattern and grabbing the early lead.

A key focus for next season must be igniting the defense early and getting out in front first. This year they set goals for rushing yardage. That's great. Next season, a key goal needs to be, scoring first.