Liver's NFL Week 12 Thanksgiving Picks

Thanksgiving Day games are notoriously tough to pick because of the short week. Plus, none of these games looks very interesting on paper. Still, what else are you going to do on Thanksgiving besides drink, eat, and watch football? Sex, anyone?

Here’s to an Aggie slaughter at the hands of the Liver’s beloved Longhorns today. Then, it’s the Big 12 title game against Nebraska, and a national championship matchup in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 7 against the winner of the SEC Championship game. At least one of my football teams is a championship contender.

Happy Thanksgiving all; drink, eat, and love your neighbor 'til it hurts. Excuse me while I go watch Casino right now.

Of course, it goes without saying that the following picks against the spread are for recreational use only . Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Bob Griese, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Bill Belichick, Steve Phillips, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Elizabeth Lambert, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World), and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Last week’s record: 9-7

2009 record against the spread:  100-59-1 (.625)

Thursday, Nov. 26

Green Bay at Detroit (+10½)

Green Bay has gotten back into the mix for the NFC Wild Card the last two weeks, and shouldn’t get tripped up here. The Lions enjoyed a rare win in a wild finish to their game with the Browns but, in true Lions fashion, even in a win they lose. Stafford is highly unlikely to play after suffering the dislocated left shoulder at the end of the game, and Calvin Johnson is also banged up.

Stafford's injury means Daunte Culpepper will likely be taking the snaps for Detroit. Anyone that actually watches this game as opposed to just having it on in the background as they cook, drink, and socialize has to be either a Green Bay or Detroit fan, or a gambling junkie like the Liver.

Then again, maybe you just don’t like your relatives and in-laws, so you revert to give-up mode, eat and drink heavily while pretending you care about this pointless game as a means of avoiding them.

Did I mention that I had degrees in psychology and sociology? Think Roger Goodell wishes the Lions would forfeit their Thanksgiving Day spot?

Pick: Green Bay  

Oakland at Dallas (-13½)

Looks like a slightly different Raiders team with Bruce Gradkowski in at QB. Then again, anyone is an upgrade over JaMarcus Russell.

It was ugly to be sure, but the Cowboys got the win against the Redskins with just one good offensive drive. The Dallas offense is having serious issues right now while the defense has been the only constant with the team since early in the season.

I thought running the ball might be the answer for the Cowboys, but even that couldn’t generate points.  It just seems like several key offensive players—Tony Romo, Marion Barber, and Felix Jones—are banged up and not playing anywhere near what they should be.

This is typically where the Dallas Cowboys of the past few years have peaked, unfortunately, and this is another game that could go either way.

The Cowboys could blow the Raiders away, or the Raiders, who have some confidence right now, could make this a game. Then again, maybe the Raiders are so satisfied at winning against Cincinnati that they just mail it in Thursday after having to travel on a short week.

Sooner or later, the Cowboys offense is going to get back to scoring points right? And it’s the F-ing Raiders! How the hell is it possible that the Cowboys are favored by nearly the exact number of points that the offense has scored the last two weeks combined ? And, why the hell am I laying it? Only God can protect my TV, my remote, and my sliding glass door if Dallas blows this.

Pick: Dallas

NY Giants at Denver (+7)

Denver is in free-fall right now. Either its offense is turning the ball over, or its defense is getting gashed against the run. It's difficult to play on a short week, especially for the road team, but this Broncos team is imploding right before our eyes.

Of course, the Giants had to go to overtime to beat a lackluster Falcons team, and had to travel to Denver. Never underestimate the wear and tear for the road teams in these Thanksgiving games.

This Broncos team has to show some heart at home doesn’t it? As long as Chris Simms is nowhere near that field…

Pick: Denver