Surprising Offseason Trades for 2022 NBA Lottery Teams
For anyone who's already missing the uncertainty and intrigue of a few weeks ago, when we lived in the pre-lottery NBA world, don't worry. The clarity of an established draft order can still give way to chaos.
Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith Jr. and Paolo Banchero will likely go in the top three, but in what order? And what shenanigans might ensue afterward?
Knowing who's picking where gives us a better idea of which teams might want to move up and which would rather trade down. Plus, it helps set up a landscape for related moves that might now be on the table. Thanks to last Tuesday's lottery, our guesswork just got a little more informed.
Not every one of these deals involves the No. 1 pick, but keep in mind we've seen that selection moved twice since 2014. It happens, and the transactions aren't just limited to the top of the draft. Highly consequential deals get done lower in the order, like the one in 2018 that swapped the third and fifth picks, sending Luka Doncic to the Dallas Mavericks and Trae Young to the Atlanta Hawks.
Maybe we won't see any surprise trades with ripple effects quite like that, but we've cooked up a few plausible swaps that could be similarly hard to see coming.
OKC Can't Live Without Chet Holmgren
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Orlando Magic Receive: No.2 and No. 12 picks
Oklahoma City Thunder Receive: No. 1 and No. 32 picks
The Orlando Magic have the No. 1 pick and should have their sights set on Jabari Smith Jr. The sweet-shooting Auburn forward's perimeter stroke and defensive versatility would complete one of the best young frontcourts in the league alongside Wendell Carter Jr. and Franz Wagner.
Meanwhile, Chet Holmgren's rim protection and draft-best upside should make him the Oklahoma City Thunder's top priority. OKC picks second, which you'd think would remove any intrigue.
Orlando should still put the squeeze on, hemming and hawing as if it isn't sure Smith is its perfect fit. This deal hinges on the Magic bluffing and the Thunder wanting Holmgren so badly that they decide it's not worth the stress of calling them on it.
Oklahoma City shouldn't leave anything to chance, and its hoard of draft assets means it can easily afford to skip the staring contest with Orlando by paying a fee to move up from No. 2 to No. 1.
Thanks to the Thunder's war chest of picks, this hypothetical trade could take several forms. Oklahoma City could offer a heavily protected future first in any of the next several drafts (and probably wouldn't even notice it was missing), but the easiest route might be giving the Magic No. 2 and No. 12 (via the Los Angeles Clippers) and calling it a day. We'll even throw OKC a bone with Orlando's 2022 second-rounder, which will be No. 32.
Orlando gets the player it wanted all along, plus another asset, while the Thunder land their man as well.
Everybody wins.
The Kings Snag a Starter
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Sacramento Kings Receive: No. 6 pick and Oshae Brissett
Indiana Pacers Receive: No. 4 pick
Here, we've got yet another deal whose execution depends on a difference of opinion. In this case, the Indiana Pacers convince themselves the player they need will be there at No. 4 but not at No. 6. That logic could apply to Keegan Murray or Jaden Ivey, either of whom would fit nicely into Indy's quick-fire rebuild.
The Sacramento Kings are even more present-focused than the Pacers, given the playoffs-or-bust mandate that accompanied new head coach Mike Brown's hiring. In this scenario, the difference between No. 4 and No. 6 is negligible for the Kings, while the need to upgrade an atrocious wing/forward rotation is critically important.
For the record, two teams holding different values of a lottery slot has historically spurred plenty of trades—one of which even involved the Kings.
In 2016, the Phoenix Suns decided Marquese Chriss wasn't going to make it to them at No. 13, so they sent Sacramento that pick, the No. 28 selection and the rights to Bogdan Bogdanovic in exchange for No. 8. That transaction worked out well for the Kings, who got themselves a rotation player in Bogdanovic by moving down.
Sacramento is under different management now, but it has the recent example of a trade like the one proposed above yielding great results. The winner of a predraft deal isn't always the team that moves up.
In Brissett, the Kings get an athletic combo forward who would probably start next to Harrison Barnes. With a very thin crop of similar players available in free agency, this might be the Kings' best shot at addressing the biggest weakness on the roster. Plus, they still get to choose between a bunch of quality options at No. 6. Sharpshooting wing AJ Griffin would be ideal, and wild-card Kentucky wing Shaedon Sharpe might also still be on the board.
At the same time, the Pacers move up two critical spots in the draft to grab the best player available after Holmgren, Smith and (presumably) Paolo Banchero are gone.
Portland Toughens Up on D
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Portland Trail Blazers Receive: Luguentz Dort and No. 30 pick
Oklahoma City Thunder Receive: No. 7 pick
If I'm the Blazers, I hold out for as long as possible in hopes the Thunder will include their No. 12 selection instead of No. 30. But ultimately, whoever comes off the board at No. 7 may not ever be as impactful as Dort—and that'll certainly be the case in the stretch of time that matters most to Portland...which is right now.
Damian Lillard will be 32 in July, so the urgency to surround him with playoff-ready talent is high. If the Blazers intend to keep Anfernee Simons as Dame's high-scoring, similarly undersized partner in the backcourt, they badly need a shutdown wing to wrangle opposing scorers.
Enter Dort.
The burly 23-year-old wing is an intimidating one-on-one stopper who's already shown his game holds up in the postseason. There's certainly a case for OKC keeping Dort, as he's young and slated to make just $1.9 million in 2022-23. But unrestricted free agency and a significant raise are both on the way next summer, unless OKC declines his option and makes him a restricted free agent this July—in which case this deal would be dead.
Dort's rising cost should matter to the Blazers, but not as much as his ability to get them back to the playoffs in the short term.
On the other side, the Thunder already have one max salary kicking in for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander this coming season. Potential max extensions for Josh Giddey and (eventually) the player they select at No. 2 in the draft might make shelling out $20 million per season for Dort an issue.
Better to make a move now, add another potential star at No. 7 and keep accumulating lottery tickets. Realistically, Dort's presence won't keep the Thunder from landing in the lottery again next year. This rebuild is still in its infancy. His impact on Portland could be far more meaningful.
The Pelicans Build a Death Lineup
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New Orleans Pelicans Receive: Jerami Grant
Detroit Pistons Receive: No. 8 pick, Jaxson Hayes, Devonte' Graham
Disappointed they fell out of the top three, the Detroit Pistons can console themselves by building an asset cache that includes two selections in the top eight. If you want to get even bolder, Detroit could theoretically package those two picks to move higher up the draft board.
The Pistons' side of this exchange is about accumulating multiple shots at transformative players while also surrounding current cornerstone Cade Cunningham with pieces that aid in his development. Graham is limited defensively by his size and isn't the purest point guard, but he's an ace floor-spacer who's shot between 39.8 and 42.3 percent on catch-and-shoot triples over the last three seasons.
He'd give Cunningham a premium outlet, while Hayes' athleticism as a roll man would create vertical spacing.
Graham slipped out of the rotation after Jose Alvarado's emergence, while Hayes is slotted behind Zion Williamson, Jonas Valanciunas and Larry Nance Jr. up front. The Pels can afford to use them as sweeteners. That's to say nothing of New Orleans' roster crunch. It has 14 players under contract for next year, so a two-for-one swap adds a little flexibility.
Maybe the Pelicans, who still qualify as up-and-coming, would hate to lose the No. 8 pick and the possibilities it'd bring.
They'll hate it a lot less when they're trotting out CJ McCollum, Herb Jones, Brandon Ingram, Jerami Grant and Zion Williamson in a five-out, super-switchy wrecking crew that will turn teams over and create tons of scoring opportunities on the other end.
Grant's versatile defense would pair perfectly with Jones', allowing the Pelicans to hide Ingram and Williamson on less threatening matchups, while his ability to generate looks for himself would exact a price from opposing defenses that load up to stop Williamson's downhill rumbles.
If you thought the Pels were feisty during their surprise playoff run in 2022, just wait. This crew could do more than give a high seed a scare.
Bradley Beal Goes West
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Portland Trail Blazers Receive: Bradley Beal
Washington Wizards Receive: Anfernee Simons (sign-and-trade), No. 7 pick and Eric Bledsoe
The particulars of this one are tricky and might need to involve an even more confounding double sign-and-trade—that's assuming the Washington Wizards cooperate with a seemingly unlikely request by Beal to move elsewhere and that the Blazers can clear enough room without totally gutting their depth.
And if we're being thorough, the Wizards could justifiably demand more draft compensation than the No. 7 pick to consider something of this magnitude. Don't expect Portland to hold out on that front if a deal feels close.
The basic idea checks out. If Washington realizes that inking Beal to a five-year deal worth nearly a quarter of a billion dollars is really just a ticket to a half-decade of 45-win seasons (at best) with no flexibility, it could pivot to a soft rebuild. Instead of that familiar fate, the Wizards can cut bait on Beal, grab a blossoming star in Simons and add a pick that might net them another such player.
Eric Bledsoe, as always, is partially guaranteed salary filler.
In this world we've created, the Wizards' long-term books look a lot better, even with Simons on a rich new deal.
Portland's side is easy. It's on Lillard's timeline, and Beal, though very expensive, profiles as an ideal 1B to Lillard's 1A. Assuming the Blazers are serious about an immediate return to relevance, this trade would be a solid if highly risky route to get them there.
Beal and Lillard are both in the decline phases of their careers and have a ton of combined mileage on their tires. They're two of 11 players who've logged at least 14,000 minutes over the last six years, and that's pricing in the fact that both missed more than half of last season. There is serious downside risk here.
The upside is equally real. Portland could field a devastating offensive backcourt that, if healthy and supported by enough wing defense, could vault it into the West's elite.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through 2021-22 season. Salary info via Spotrac.
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