2022 NBA Draft Lottery: Full Odds and Teams with Most at Stake

Joe Tansey@JTansey90Featured ColumnistMay 17, 2022

2022 NBA Draft Lottery: Full Odds and Teams with Most at Stake

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    Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

    NBA teams will find out if their season-long tanking jobs paid off during Tuesday's NBA draft lottery. 

    The Houston Rockets, Orlando Magic and Detroit Pistons share the best odds to win the draft lottery. 

    The trio of teams produced the three worst records in the regular season and all have a 14 percent chance to land the No. 1 overall pick. 

    The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers are the two other franchises with over a 10 percent chance to land the top selection. 

    It is easy to say that the teams with the highest No. 1 pick odds have the most at stake on Tuesday night, but a few of those teams do not need the top selection to improve their rosters. 

    For example, Orlando's roster is loaded with young talent and it could still have a beneficial draft if it picks inside the top three. 

    Other franchises, like the Sacramento Kings and Portland Trail Blazers, could use a surge up the draft order to improve their rosters with one of the top prospects. 

    At the moment, Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero, Jabari Smith and Jaden Ivey are all in the mix for the No. 1 overall pick.

    Earning a top-four selection on Tuesday night may be enough to celebrate for certain teams looking for a top-tier talent out of the collegiate ranks. 

NBA Draft Lottery Odds

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    Eric Christian Smith/Associated Press

    Houston - 14%

    Orlando - 14%

    Detroit - 14%

    Oklahoma City - 12.5%

    Indiana - 10.5%

    Portland - 9%

    Sacramento - 7.5%

    Los Angeles Lakers (pick conveyed to New Orleans) - 6%

    San Antonio - 4.5%

    Washington - 3%

    New York - 2%

    Los Angeles Clippers (pick conveyed to Oklahoma City) - 1.5%

    Charlotte - 1%

    Cleveland - 0.5%

Houston Rockets

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    Michael Wyke/Associated Press

    The Houston Rockets have less of a defined future than the Orlando Magic and Detroit Pistons. 

    Houston has some solid young roster pieces in Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr., but its direction going into the offseason is a little unknown. 

    The Rockets could trade veterans, like Christian Wood and Eric Gordon, in an attempt to get even younger and rebuild in that fashion. 

    Earning the No. 1 overall pick would allow Houston to choose the direction of its rebuild with any of the four top prospects. 

    Houston's answer with the top selection could be Chet Holmgren, which would then make Wood available in a potential trade. 

    The Rockets could also opt to land Jabari Smith as a scoring threat off the wing to complement the pieces they already have. 

    The failure to win the draft lottery could box the Rockets in for what they can do with their roster. 

    Holmgren, Smith, or both could be gone by the time they select, if they do not land the top selection, and that may force them to choose a similar player to their current stars in Jaden Ivey and Paolo Banchero. 

    Orlando already has direction with Cole Anthony, Franz Wagner and others in place, while Detroit has a clear directive to find a running mate for Cade Cunningham.

    Houston's roster holds more questions at the moment, but landing the No. 1 overall pick could help solve some of the burning offseason issues. 

Sacramento Kings

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    Randall Benton/Associated Press

    You do not choose to go to Sacramento.

    Sacramento chooses you. 

    That sounds like the gloomiest statement for a NBA rookie, and in reality, it is. 

    Sacramento has been a regular fixture in the draft lottery and it already parted ways with two of its last four first-round picks. Marvin Bagley III was shipped to Detroit at the trade deadline and Tyrese Haliburton was mysteriously sent to the Indiana Pacers. 

    The Kings have a decent backbone of De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis and some nice pieces around them, including 2021 first-round pick Davion Mitchell, but the franchise seems to be stuck in neutral. 

    If the Kings remain at the No. 7 overall pick, there is a chance they will not significantly improve their roster through the draft.

    There is a clear drop off after the top four prospects in the draft class. The Kings could find a gem, like Mitchell last season, but they are not guaranteed to land a superstar. 

    A move into the top four changes a lot of things for the Kings. They would be able to land one of the top prospects and partner them with Fox and Sabonis. 

    Landing one of Smith, Holmgren, Banchero and Ivey could bring some genuine excitement to Sacramento before it inevitably gets crushed some time in January. 

Portland Trail Blazers

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    John McCoy/Associated Press

    The Portland Trail Blazers are one of the most fascinating teams to watch during the NBA offseason. 

    Portland offloaded a ton of contracts at the trade deadline once Damian Lillard was ruled out for the season. 

    Lillard is still there and he needs new running mates alongside him to bring the Blazers back to prominence. 

    Portland owns the sixth-best lottery odds with a nine percent chance to land the No. 1 overall pick, but it should not be top pick of bust for the franchise. 

    A jump into the top three or four picks would be viewed as a successful lottery for the Blazers. That would give them the chance to land one of the best prospects in the draft. 

    The No. 1 overall pick would be fantastic, but guaranteeing the team a shot at one of Holmgren, Banchero, Ivey and Smith is so important. 

    All of those players would complement Lillard in some capacity and it could help Portland attract a key free agent or two. 

    There are more questions than answers regarding Portland's roster right now, but a jump up from No. 6 to even No. 3 or No. 4 would be viewed as a massive win to start a crucial offseason. 

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