PGA Championship 2022: Odds for Sleepers and Favorites at Southern Hills
The PGA Championship produced a first-time major winner five times since 2013.
Collin Morikawa, Jason Day and Justin Thomas were either rising or established stars by the times of their triumphs, while Jason Dufner and Jimmy Walker were in good form for their victories.
The other winners in that stretch were Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka twice and Phil Mickelson, who was the unlikeliest champion in quite some time last season.
The first-time winner trend might continue at Southern Hills Country Club, but that distinction may be limited to a few players who are in tremendous form.
The reason for that is the current high levels of Jordan Spieth, Jon Rahm and the most recent major champion, Scottie Scheffler.
Scheffler began the week as the second favorite on the odds board behind Rahm. Spieth is just a bit further down the list.
With so many stars in great form, you should not reach for a sleeper play to win the PGA Championship. The best looks are the golfers with previous high major results and good form on the PGA Tour this season.
Favorite: Scottie Scheffler
Odds (via DraftKings Sportsbook): +1200 (bet $100 to win $1,200)
Scottie Scheffler has been the best golfer on the PGA Tour this season.
Scheffler backed up his remarkable form with a win at the Masters in April.
The 25-year-old American blew away the field at Augusta National Golf Club. It would be quite the achievement if he did so for the second straight major tournament.
Scheffler played one individual event between the Masters and the PGA Championship. He shot four rounds in the 60s to place in a tie for 15th at the AT&T Byron Nelson.
The top 15 in the tournament that ended Sunday extended Scheffler's run to eight top-20 placings in his last nine events.
A win at the WGC Match Play and a 15th-place mark at the Zurich Classic, a team event, are part of that string of results.
Scheffler's only poor set of rounds came at The Players Championship, where he landed in a tie for 55th.
His fantastic form dating back to February should make Scheffler one of the most popular betting picks before action begins Thursday.
Scheffler may not win outright, but he should be considered for a top-five finish at +330 and a top-10 mark at +160.
Favorite: Jordan Spieth
Jordan Spieth may be the most popular betting pick to win the PGA Championship.
Spieth has been in red-hot form since he missed the cut at the Masters.
He rebounded from the disappointment at Augusta with a win at the RBC Heritage. He then placed second at the Byron Nelson after a few weeks off.
Spieth has eight straight rounds in the 60s to his name from his last two starts on the PGA Tour.
When Spieth is firing, like he has recently, he can be one of the hottest players on the course. When he is bad, Spieth can miss the cut with ease.
The good, if not great, version of Spieth is expected to show up at Southern Hills this week.
A win in Tulsa, Oklahoma, would complete the career Grand Slam for Spieth, and it would reverse his OK form at the event over the last five years.
Spieth has a single top-10 finish in that span at the PGA Championship. He placed outside the top 25 in his last two starts at the major.
A disappointing finish does not appear to be in store for Spieth, who could end his five-year major drought.
Sleeper: Corey Conners
The steam around Corey Conners may fade a bit since the PGA Championship will not be played at Augusta.
Conners produced three consecutive top 10 finishes at the Masters and he improved on his placing in each year.
The Canadian followed up his tie for sixth at Augusta with a tie for 12th at the RBC Heritage and a tie for 21st at the Wells Fargo Championship.
Conners' results have been consistent since the start of March. He has four top-25 finishes in stroke play events and a third place from the WGC Match Play.
The lowest finish from that stretch was a tie for 35th at the Texas Open, which he earned by way of a final-round 67.
Conners' worst placing since March would be considered a solid result by most golfers on the PGA Tour.
The one concern about betting on Conners is that he does not have a top-10 major finish outside of Augusta, but he does have two top-20 placings from The Open and PGA Championship last season.
The consistency is there with Conners' PGA Tour results, and his overall major form improved last season.
Conners is worth the risk at +400 to finish inside the top 10, and he holds value at +170 to land in the top 20.
Sleeper: Billy Horschel
Billy Horschel has the worst major tournament record of any player listed the top 15 of the Official World Golf Ranking.
Horschel's only top-10 finish at a major was a tie for fourth at the 2017 U.S. Open.
However, he is near the top of the OWGR for a reason. He played strong golf over the last few months on the PGA Tour.
Horschel produced a string of four straight top-20 finishes from January-March, a run that ended with a tie for second at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
He thrived in specialty events as well with a tie for ninth at the WGC Match Play and a second-place finish at the Zurich Classic.
At some point, Horschel's form across all event formats needs to translate into major tournament results.
Horschel may not be mentioned in the winning discussion because of his long list of average major performances, but the time might be now to buy in on a high finish.
If you do not feel comfortable betting Horschel to win at +5000, he can be had at -135 to land in the top 40, +200 to finish in the top 20 and +450 to be in the top 10.
At minimum, Horschel should be considered for some of those prop bets because of how well he has played recently.
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