Playoff Chances for Each MLB Team at 2022 Season's Quarter Mark
The good thing about Major League Baseball expanding its playoff format from 10 teams to 12 is it allows more franchises to maintain postseason hopes deeper into the regular season.
But even with three-quarters of the season yet to be played, there are already half a dozen teams hopelessly out of the playoff hunt while six others appear to have essentially secured their spot in October.
Using Tuesday morning's postseason odds from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference and FiveThirtyEight as well as "to make the playoffs" betting lines from DraftKings, we've ranked the 30 teams in order of postseason potential.
For each of the seven sections ranging from "Unanimously Toast" to "Lock 'Em In," the criteria for falling into that category is listed at the top, and the teams in each section are listed in order of their DraftKings odds.
Unanimously Toast
1 of 7
Criteria: FanGraphs, Baseball Reference and FiveThirtyEight all have postseason odds of 3.0 percent or worse.
Baltimore Orioles (14-22)
FG: 0%, BR:
On all four sites, Baltimore is in dead last as far as postseason potential is concerned. And rightfully so, as fourth place in the loaded AL East eels like a pipe dream. But this team isn't all bad. Bruce Zimmerman is pitching great. Cedric Mullins has rallied from a slow start. Jorge Mateo is hitting and running like a possible long-term option in the middle infield. This team isn't that far away from competing, and every remotely noteworthy contributor is under contract or team control through at least next season.
Washington Nationals (12-25)
FG: 0.1%, BR: 0.1%; 538: 1%, DK: +2500
The Nats have the bats to compete. Both Josh Bell and Yadiel Hernandez are having excellent seasons, as is Juan Soto, albeit with a lower batting average than usual. Maikel Franco is also hitting well, and Nelson Cruz is slowly but surely starting to wake up. But the pitching has been a disaster, and even the impending returns of Stephen Strasburg and Joe Ross are almost certainly too little, too late.
Pittsburgh Pirates (15-20)
FG: 0.4%; BR: 0.1%, 538: 1%, DK: +2500
While 15-20 is a respectable record, all signs point toward the Pirates plummeting sooner than later. Pittsburgh is now tied with Cincinnati for the worst run differential in the majors (negative-65), which comes with having four starting pitchers with an ERA worse than 5.30. At least impending free agents Jose Quintana, Ben Gamel and Roberto Perez have performed well enough to garner some interest before the trade deadline.
Cincinnati Reds (9-26)
FG: 0.3%, BR: 0.5%, 538: 3%, DK: +2500
To be fair, the Reds have been much better as of late. After the disastrous 3-22 start, they won six out of eight games and even pitched a no-hitter on Sunday. But they could have another four consecutive "win six out of eight" stretches and still be a sub-.500 team. Per MLB.com's Andrew Simon, the worst 25-game start in MLB history to still produce a playoff berth was the 2001 Oakland A's, which started 8-17 before an absurd 94-43 record the rest of the way.
Kansas City Royals (12-21)
FG: 0.9%, BR: 0.7%, 538: 2%, DK: +1500
As is also the case for the Tigers, the Royals are slightly ahead of the previous four teams by virtue of playing in the wide-open AL Central. If they happen to turn a corner and finish at something like 84-78, that just might be enough to win the division and sneak into the postseason. Nobody expects that to be a possibility in any other division.
Even with that caveat, the average estimation from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference and 538 is 1.2 percent. Bobby Witt Jr. and Whit Merrifield are finally starting to heat up at the plate, but the pitching has been so disappointing that it hasn't mattered. The Royals entered play on Tuesday having allowed the most runs in the American League despite playing the fewest games (33).
Detroit Tigers (13-23)
FG: 1.4%, BR: 3.0%, 538: 2%, DK: +1300
The Tigers just swept a three-game series against the Orioles to improve their postseason odds ever so slightly, but this team still cannot hit its way out of a wet paper bag. They have scored just 103 runs through 36 games, and no one on the roster has even reached four home runs yet. They expected much more offense than this when they signed Javier Baez to a big contract, traded for Austin Meadows and handed top prospect Spencer Torkelson the reins at first base. Alas, they have been anemic at the dish and have no business thinking about the postseason.
One Semi-Believer
2 of 7
Criteria: One of FG, BR or 538 gives the team a better than 3.0 percent chance of making the postseason, but all three sites give them below a 20 percent chance.
Oakland Athletics (15-23)
FG: 0.2%, BR: 6.9%, 538: 1%, DK: +2000
The A's are like an ocean tide schedule: 3-4 years of competitiveness followed by 3-4 years of hanging out in the AL West basement while they put together their next batch of star players. They are currently suffering through a low tide in which starting pitcher Paul Blackburn is the only player even remotely worth considering for the All-Star Game. Oakland beat the odds in jumping out to a 10-9 start to the season, but the A's 5-14 record over the past 19 games has been more indicative of their talent level.
Texas Rangers (15-19)
FG: 2.0%, BR: 1.1%, 538: 6%, DK: +1500
Less than a week ago, I made the observation that Texas had yet to lose a game by six or more runs. Since then, the Rangers have been blown out by at least that margin three times. Corey Seager and Adolis Garcia have been good sources of home runs and RBI, but Texas is one of the worst-hitting teams in the majors. Aside from Martin Perez and a couple of middle relievers, the pitching staff has left much to be desired. Hard to figure out what 538 or DraftKings see here to give the Rangers a semi-realistic shot at making the playoffs.
Arizona Diamondbacks (18-18)
FG: 1.9%, BR: 1.4%, 538: 6%, DK: +1500
Arizona and Colorado are Bizarro Kansas City and Detroit. Put those two NL West teams in the AL Central, and they'd be close to 50/50 to make the postseason. As is, even with the expanded postseason format, it's extremely unlikely that either currently .500-ish club will be playing into the second week of October.
That said, the Diamondbacks have drastically exceeded expectations thus far with pitchers Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Madison Bumgarner leading the way. Each hurler had a sub-1.80 ERA through his first seven starts, giving this club a puncher's chance on a nightly basis in spite of its lackluster offense. It's just a shame closer Mark Melancon has struggled so mightily with five losses already charged against him. The D-Backs would possibly be in first place right now were it not for that.
Colorado Rockies (17-18)
FG: 0.5%, BR: 13.0%, 538: 4%, DK: +1500
After a hot start, the Rockies have already come crashing back down, allowing at least seven runs in each of their past six losses. Their once unhittable bullpen has been getting roughed up left and right, and C.J. Cron hasn't homered in weeks after clubbing nine home runs in his first 23 contests. And things are only going to get worse as the schedule gets more unfavorable—they have yet to face the Padres and have completed just one series each against the Dodgers and Giants.
Chicago Cubs (14-20)
FG: 2.0%, BR: 0.5%, 538: 10%, DK: +1100
Are the Cubs finally turning a corner? After losing 14 out of 17 games, they won back-to-back road series against the Padres and the Diamondbacks in the past week. They have done so despite getting virtually nothing all season out of one-third of their payroll (Jason Heyward and Marcus Stroman). That's par for the course from Heyward at this point in his career, but if Stroman and Kyle Hendricks ever right the ship, maybe Chicago could go on a tear. It's not likely, but 538's 10 percent odds feel fairer than what the Cubs are getting from FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.
Stranger Things Have Happened
3 of 7
Criteria: At least two of FG, BR and 538 give the team a better than 5.0 percent chance of making the postseason, but none of the three give them a 50 percent chance.
Miami Marlins (16-19)
FG: 16.1%, BR: 1.7%, 538: 16%, DK: +450
Will the Marlins make the playoffs? Probably not. But will they win at least 80 games in a season for the first time since 2010? I think so. They have a young but solid pitching staff anchored by potential All-Star Game starter Pablo Lopez. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is a budding star at second base, and he's finally getting more support in the lineup now that Avisail Garcia and Jorge Soler are starting to hit the ball. If nothing else, this team is fun to watch.
Cleveland Guardians (16-17)
FG: 18.2%, BR: 47.3%, 538: 30%, DK: +350
Speaking of fun to watch, the Guardians are practically overrun with quality hitters, resulting in 10 games with at least seven runs scored. Jose Ramirez is the leader of the bunch, but there are no easy outs in this lineup. That should keep them in the AL Central hunt all season long, especially if Aaron Civale stops getting shelled in every start and Shane Bieber regains his 2020 Cy Young form.
Seattle Mariners (16-20)
FG: 15.6%, BR: 18.4%, 538: 18%, DK: +260
If the Mariners are going to end their 21-year postseason drought, their pitching needs to improve—and fast. Logan Gilbert has been great, but reigning Cy Young winner Robbie Ray has been underwhelming while Chris Flexen, Marco Gonzales and Matt Brash have gone a combined 3-13. Their bullpen hasn't been any better, either. At least hitters Ty France and J.P. Crawford are doing their best to shoulder the load.
Boston Red Sox (14-21)
FG: 22.6%, BR: 12%, 538: 26%, DK: +230
As horribly as this season has gone for the Red Sox, the oddsmakers refuse to throw in the towel. It's hard to blame them with Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers and J.D. Martinez each hitting above .320 in the heart of the order. If Trevor Story ever decides to join in on the fun and if Chris Sale returns from the rib fracture that has held him out of action thus far, the Red Sox could storm back in a hurry. They just need to hope it happens before they fall too far behind the Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays.
Philadelphia Phillies (17-18)
FG: 43.0%, BR: 27.5%, 538: 46%, DK: +120
The Phils sputtered through their first 30 games, but they appear to be rounding into form. It was only one series, but after watching them take three of four from the Dodgers in Los Angeles this past weekend, +120 to make the postseason just feels disrespectful. Led by reigning MVP Bryce Harper, the Phillies have one of the best lineups in the majors, and the starting rotation is better than it has shown thus far.
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The Coin Flips
4 of 7
Criteria: At least one of FG, BR and 538 gives them a better than 50 percent chance, and at least one gives them below a 50 percent chance.
Minnesota Twins (21-15)
FG: 51.9%, BR: 40.4%, 538: 58%, DK: -110
The Twins are the biggest unknown of them all. Their postseason odds have improved dramatically since the start of the season, going from "Might Win 75 Games" to "3.0 Games Up in the AL Central."
Here's the thing, though: Nothing about their start seems unsustainable, save for maybe the ERAs of both Joe Ryan and Emilio Pagan. If anything, Minnesota should be even better than it is, because guys like Carlos Correa, Miguel Sano and Gary Sanchez are better than they have shown thus far. It feels like the hesitance to believe in this team is actually more of a hesitance to believe someone other than the White Sox might win this division.
St. Louis Cardinals (19-15)
FG: 40.9%, BR: 93.8%: 538: 48%, DK: -115
Baseball Reference is clearly the odd man out on this one, currently giving the Cardinals the fifth-best odds of making the postseason behind only the Dodgers, Yankees, Astros and Giants. St. Louis is good, but it's not that good.
Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are both putting up excellent numbers, and the Cardinals have hit the jackpot with rookies Juan Yepez and Brendan Donovan, both of whom are hitting above .300 since getting the call. If those guys continue to hit well, Miles Mikolas keeps dealing on the mound and Jack Flaherty eventually returns to the active roster, St. Louis should easily make the playoffs for a fourth consecutive year.
Chicago White Sox (17-17)
FG: 66.0%, BR: 36.4%, 538: 58%, DK: -190
Just when it looked like the White Sox were starting to figure things out, they went 2-4 during their homestand against the Guardians and Yankees, got smoked in all three of the losses to the Bronx Bombers and fell back below .500 overall.
It's still early and the AL Central is still ripe for the picking, but the projections are beginning to sour on Chicago. This was a top-five World Series candidate a month ago that has now sputtered firmly into the "maybe makes the playoffs" range. With six regulars batting .200 or worse, even that is starting to feel optimistic.
San Diego Padres (22-13)
FG: 85.7%, BR: 26.9%, 538: 81%, DK: -425
Baseball Reference giving the Cardinals a 93.8 percent chance of making the playoffs is ridiculous, but 26.9 percent for the Padres practically qualifies as malpractice. San Diego darn near has the best record in the National League and is only going to get better when Fernando Tatis Jr. and Blake Snell make their long-awaited season debuts. If we could actually bet on that 26.2 percent probability at a roughly +275 line, I would consider draining my life savings to do so.
San Diego's actual postseason betting line of -425 is the seventh-shortest in the majors, as FanGraphs and 538 are clearly more sold on San Diego's potential. The Padres might not quite keep pace with the Dodgers in the NL West, but this is most certainly not a coin flip. We'll abide by our pre-determined criteria, though, and trust that Baseball Reference comes to its senses soon.
More Likely Than Not
5 of 7
Criteria: FG, BR and 538 each have the team above 50 percent, while DK has the team in the -150 to -400 range.
Atlanta Braves (16-20)
FG: 62.1%, BR: 76.7%, 538: 54%, DK: -160
Since Ronald Acuna Jr.'s season debut on April 28, the Atlanta Braves are...two games below .500. The reigning champions are still expected to make the playoffs, but at what point does their current record and run differential start to count for more than what happened last season?
To be clear, I think these are fair projections/lines. At any rate, I have no interest in hammering Atlanta's "+130 to miss postseason" line. I just wonder if these projections/lines would be closer to 35 percent and +180 if this franchise hadn't won it all last fall.
Los Angeles Angels (24-14)
FG: 79.4%, BR: 59.1%, 538: 78%, DK: -210
The Angels at just -210 is probably the best value on the board, because this team has been outstanding. Only the Yankees (plus-73) and Dodgers (plus-71) have a better run differential than the Angels (plus-54).
With the sextet of Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Taylor Ward, Jared Walsh, Brandon Marsh and Anthony Rendon leading the way, it's hard to envision this team going worse than .500 the rest of the way. And that's about what it would take for them to miss the postseason.
Tampa Bay Rays (21-15)
FG: 58.0%, BR: 92.3%, 538: 58%, DK: -250
The injury bug is taking its toll on the Rays. They've been without starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Shane Baz since before the season began, but now they've also lost two of their best bats—Manuel Margot (hamstring) and Brandon Lowe (back)—to the IL in the past few days. Tampa Bay was already defying the odds a bit at six games above .500 with a negative run differential. Could be some serious regression coming their way in the next week or two.
I still believe this is a playoff team, but this line might drop into the -150 to -175 range if they do start to sputter at considerably less than 100 percent health.
San Francisco Giants (21-14)
FG: 74.4%, BR: 98.0%, 538: 65%, DK: -270
Even though no one is hitting all that well, and even though the starting rotation is now devoid of pitchers with a sub-3.00 ERA following Carlos Rodon's dud on Sunday, the Giants have been this year's ultimate "whole is greater than the sum of the parts" team. As it turns out, lacking clear-cut All Stars is fine when you're also completely lacking in players who are hurting the team with poor play.
Baseball Reference is aggressively high on the Giants, and 98.0 percent is actually down a bit. The Giants were as high as 99.3 percent on B-R as recently as Friday, which is just absurd when you consider the Yankees have yet to even reach the 99 percent mark this season. (This is why B-R is so low on the Padres, by the way.) The other three projections here are much more rational for what is currently the third-place team in the NL West.
In Great Shape
6 of 7
Criteria: DraftKings line between -400 and -1000
Toronto Blue Jays (19-17)
FG: 87.9%, BR: 86.5%, 538: 72%, DK: -650
Seven weeks ago, Toronto was one of the top candidates to win the World Series. And that little nugget of information sure does seem to be baked into the current -650 betting line on the Blue Jays to make the postseason, considering they are currently a distant third in the AL East with a negative-11 run differential.
Another factor baked in is the lack of a better candidate for the AL's third wild card spot. If Toronto doesn't get in, it means either the Mariners, the Red Sox or a second team out of the AL Central does, which feels implausible at best. But despite not having a .500 or worse record yet this season, Toronto has been quite disappointing compared to the lofty preseason expectations. Shame the books haven't given us much of an opportunity to buy low, though.
Milwaukee Brewers (23-13)
FG: 93.5%, BR: 93.6%, 538: 89%, DK: -800
Of the three teams in this tier, Milwaukee is the surest thing to reach the playoffs, and it's not even close. The three-headed force of Brad Boxberger, Devin Williams and Josh Hader in the bullpen makes it feel impossible to come from behind to beat this team, and it's not like scoring in the first six innings is a walk in the park. This staff strikes out opponents like there's no tomorrow, while Milwaukee's hitters have also clubbed more home runs than any other team in the NL.
Throw in the fact that three-fifths of the NL Central has little to no hope of making the postseason, and it's hard to imagine a scenario in which the Brew Crew fails to win at least 90 games.
New York Mets (23-13)
FG: 85.2%, BR: 66.4%, 538: 77%, DK: -800
The Mets have been very good and the rest of the NL East has been very not good, but DraftKings' implied postseason odds of 89 percent sure are high for *gestures wildly at New York's history of late-season collapses*. Just using the average postseason percentages from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference and 538, this line should be closer to -320, not -800. So "+600 to miss the playoffs" is more than a little tantalizing here.
That said, the Mets certainly should make the playoffs. The pitching staff (both rotation and bullpen) has been excellent, even with Jacob deGrom still on the shelf, and the Mets' bats have produced multiple runs in all but two games this season. They put together a gargantuan payroll, and they're getting the success they paid for.
Lock 'Em In
7 of 7
Criteria: DraftKings line greater than -1000
Houston Astros (23-13)
FG: 97.6%, BR: 97.0%, 538: 91%, DK: -1200
An 11-game winning streak sure can change things in a hurry.
Two weeks ago, Houston was a .500 team with a 71.2 percent chance of reaching the postseason, per Baseball Reference. But then the pitching staff completely shut down anything and everything, and suddenly Houston reaching the postseason is approaching "prime Rafael Nadal winning the first round of the French Open" levels of inevitability.
The Astros are still neck-and-neck with the Angels in the AL West, but they should at least secure one of the AL's three wild-card spots if they happen to finish behind the Halos.
Los Angeles Dodgers (22-12)
FG: 93.9%, BR: 99.9%, 538: 97%, DK: -2500
Even with a recent rough patch of five losses in six games against the Pirates and Phillies, the Dodgers remain the team to beat in the National League.
The ridiculous part is they currently have 10 pitchers on the IL, yet still boast the best team ERA in the NL by a country mile. For as good as they already have been, just imagine them with a healthy Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Danny Duffy, Andrew Heaney, Blake Treinen and Caleb Ferguson, and with a lineup where someone other than Freddie Freeman is hitting at anywhere near his usual level of excellence.
Maybe the Dodgers never get to that point. Perhaps they fail to win the NL West. But if this team were to miss the postseason altogether, it would go down as one of the most embarrassing letdowns of all time.
New York Yankees (26-9)
FG: 98.3%, BR: 98.9%, 538: 97%, DK: -3500
Remember when the Yankees were 7-6, including three shutout losses and a series loss to the Orioles?
Since that mediocre start, they have been a runaway freight train, winning 19 out of their past 22 games.
The Yankees seem all but guaranteed to reach the playoffs, though how they'll fare against that level of competition remains to be seen. There are currently 10 teams with at least 20 wins, and New York has yet to face any of them. That might be inflating their record a bit, but it's clear this team is the real deal and the deserving singular favorite to reach the postseason.
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