Predicting Landing Spots for Quarterbacks in 2022 NFL Draft's First 2 Rounds

The 2022 NFL draft is mere days away, and there's still plenty of drama surrounding the first round. The No. 1 pick is still a mystery, as is this year's class of quarterbacks.

The Jacksonville Jaguars aren't taking a quarterback first overall a year after taking Trevor Lawrence in the same slot. There doesn't seem to be a quarterback who warrants a trade up to No. 1, either, so for the first time since 2017, a quarterback probably won't be the first pick.

However, quarterbacks will go in Round 1, presumably several of them. Below, you'll find a look at the incoming rookie signal-callers most likely to be drafted on opening night, those likely to fall just outside of the first round and predictions for where each will land.

Factors like player skill set, proven production, projected upside, team needs and team fit were all considered here. Prospects are listed in alphabetical order.

Matt Corral, Mississippi

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Draft Prediction: Detroit Lions, 32nd Overall

Mississippi's Matt Corral is the fourth-ranked quarterback prospect on the Bleacher Report scouting department's big board, and he's a very different signal-caller than what the Detroit Lions have in Jared Goff.

While Goff is physically limited, he has adequate arm strength, great short- and mid-range accuracy and timing. These traits have helped him reach a Super Bowl and earn two Pro Bowl nods. However, there isn't much upside with Goff, who can realistically be released after the 2022 season.

Goff is scheduled to carry a cap hit of $30.7 million in 2023 but will have only $10 million in dead money on his deal.

Corral, on the other hand, lacks polish and ideal size (6'2", 212 lbs) but has flashed mobility, accuracy, arm strength and an ability to throw from multiple angles and platforms.

"Corral is a tough and competitive quarterback with good athleticism. He was consistently accurate on short and intermediate throws in Ole Miss' heavy-RPO offense, and he flashes enough arm strength to squeeze throws into tight spaces," Nate Tice of the B/R scouting department wrote.

Last season, Corral threw for 3,349 yards with 20 touchdowns and only five interceptions. He also rushed for 614 yards and 11 scores. He has a higher ceiling than Goff and makes sense as a long-term replacement. The presence of Goff will allow Corral to sit and learn for at least a year before being thrown to the wolves.

Theoretically, the Lions could use their second-round pick (34th overall) to land Corral, but using the 32nd—acquired from the Los Angeles Rams in the Goff and Matthew Stafford trade—would give Detroit the fifth-year option.

Sam Howell, North Carolina

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Draft Prediction: Seattle Seahawks, 40th Overall

Like Matt Corral, North Carolina's Sam Howell lacks polish and will likely be a project at the next level. He's also undersized at 6'1" and 218 pounds.

However, Howell brings mobility and tremendous arm talent to the table and is well-suited for the Seattle Seahawks offense. He's not Russell Wilson by any means, but he has the potential to thrive in a system that leans on the run and utilizes deep strikes off play-action.

"The 2021 tape was bumpy but his makeup is really good and improvement is likely with better pieces around him," NFL Media's Lance Zierlein wrote. "Howell isn't wired for or suited to a ball-control passing attack and might need a vertical passing scheme capable of creating explosive plays in order to succeed."

Last season, Howell finished with 3,056 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, nine interceptions, 828 rushing yards and 11 rushing scores.

Howell is, in many ways, similar to Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield—who remains the subject of trade buzz involving Seattle.

"The Seahawks are very much in the mix for Baker," an NFL executive said, per Matt Lombardo of FanSided.

Seattle could use the No. 9 selection on a signal-caller, but if it doesn't view any of the remaining quarterbacks as worthy of a top-10 pick, Howell would be a great fallback option. He could quickly provide competition for Drew Lock—acquired from Denver in the Wilson trade—and wouldn't be as expensive as Mayfield in terms of salary or trade expenditure.

Packaging the 40th and 41st picks to move back into the first round could also make sense, as it would allow Seattle to get Howell with the fifth-year option.

Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh

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Draft Prediction: Carolina Panthers, Sixth Overall

Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett brought experience (49 starts), arm talent, desired size (6'3", 217 lbs) and adequate athleticism to the predraft process. Last season, he passed for 4,319 yards with 42 touchdowns and only seven interceptions.

However, concerns about his hand size (8½") and upside have existed throughout the process.

"Pickett is the most ready to play, so people may not want to pass on him like Mac Jones last year," one NFC executive said, per NFL Media's Tom Pelissero. "Everybody's like, what's his ceiling?"

Well, that pro-readiness may be a huge deal for the Carolina Panthers and head coach Matt Rhule. The Sam Darnold experiment fell flat in 2021, and Rhule is firmly on the hot seat with a 10-23 record through two seasons.

If Rhule is going to save his job, he needs to turn things around quickly. If the Panthers don't trade for a veteran like Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo of the San Francisco 49ers, Pickett is the franchise's best option for this season.

Carolina cannot afford to wait on a quarterback and may have to make Pickett the first quarterback off the board Thursday.

"Pickett's meeting with the Panthers last week went really well," NFL Network's Peter Schrager wrote. "In fact, all of the QB prospect meetings with Carolina did. With only one other pick in the top 140, I think the Panthers just take their QB of choice, hold their nose and deal with any draft-day critiques suggesting they reached with this selection."

While Pickett might not have the highest upside in this class, he can give Carolina a legitimate chance to replace Darnold before Week 1.

Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati

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Draft Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers, 20th Overall

The Pittsburgh Steelers need a long-term replacement for future Hall of Famer Ben Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh added Mitchell Trubisky in the offseason, but Trubisky failed to become a franchise signal-caller with the Chicago Bears.

Trubisky can be a serviceable stopgap for the Steelers, but he shouldn't prevent them from taking a quarterback early.

Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder has the potential to be a franchise quarterback in Pittsburgh. He's a seasoned starter with the size (6'3", 211 lbs), mobility and arm talent teams covet. Last season, he passed for 3,334 yards with 30 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. He also rushed for 355 yards and six scores while helping the Bearcats reach the College Football Playoff.

Under Ridder's guidance, Cincinnati became the first non-Power Five school to reach the college playoffs. He is the top-ranked quarterback on the B/R board and a worthy successor to Roethlisberger.

"He's athletic but doesn't just rely on his legs to make plays happen and constantly showed an advanced understanding of Cincinnati's offense with his pre- and post-snap operation," Tice wrote. "His ability to operate from the pocket with his polished movement and balance, while still maintaining the athleticism to create plays when things break down, is a fun package."

Ridder might not be quite as pro-ready as Kenny Pickett, but he has all the tools to keep Pittsburgh in contention for the next decade-plus.

There has been buzz about Ridder landing in the top 15, and it wouldn't be a shock to see the Steelers trade up a few spots in order to secure him.

Carson Strong, Nevada

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Draft Prediction: Atlanta Falcons, 58th Overall

The Atlanta Falcons may well consider taking a quarterback at No. 8. However, they may be more apt to land one of the few truly elite prospects in this draft class instead. While the class is viewed as deep, there are only a handful of blue-chip prospects to be had.

"This draft, in terms of high-quality players, kind of drops off the cliff after about 10 picks. But the depth of make-it players who will contribute is very good," one coach told Pro Football Talk's Peter King.

If the Falcons use their first-round pick on a prospect like LSU corner Derek Stingley Jr. or Ohio State wideout Chris Olave, coming back for Nevada's Carson Strong in Round 2 would be logical.

The biggest knock on Strong is that he lacks mobility. His surgically repaired right knee also raises some durability concerns. As a pure pocket passer, though, the 6'3", 226-pound gunslinger has all the tools to succeed at the next level.

"He has the talent to attack any coverage and all areas of the field," Zierlein wrote. "... Scouts rave about his leadership and 'killer instinct.' He clearly has first-round talent, but long-term durability concerns surrounding his knee could force teams to take a more cautious approach with his projection and draft slotting."

Last season, Strong racked up 4,175 passing yards with 36 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. He would be a fine replacement for Matt Ryan, who was traded to the Indianapolis Colts.

Strong could be an early starter, but it may make sense for Atlanta to stick with Marcus Mariota while improving an offensive line that allowed 40 sacks in 2021. Using the 43rd pick on a lineman and grabbing Strong with their second Day 2 selection would be the logical choice.

Malik Willis, Liberty

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Draft Prediction: Washington Commanders, 11th Overall

The Washington Commanders traded for quarterback Carson Wentz this offseason, and Wentz should serve as a stopgap in 2022. However, Wentz isn't likely the long-term answer, as he seemed to hit his NFL ceiling in 2017—when Wentz was a Pro Bowler and helped the Philadelphia Eagles reach the Super Bowl.

In terms of potential, Liberty's Malik Willis is the best in this draft class. He's the second-ranked quarterback on the B/R board and has the physical tools to be a dynamic dual threat in the NFL. Though a bit undersized (6'1", 219 lbs), Willis is an outstanding athlete with arm talent to spare.

The former Auburn transfer was electric this past season, finishing with 2,857 passing yards, 12 interceptions, 878 rushing yards and 40 combined touchdowns. He is, however, a project.

"Willis is a fun player to watch with his arm strength, and he's truly dynamic with the ball in his hands," Tice wrote. "But he will need a huge jump in polish with his pocket movements, progression on dropback concepts, anticipation on throws—especially over the middle of the field—and overall process to end up being an every-week starter in the NFL."

Fortunately, Washington has Wentz under contract for at least another season. He's set to carry a cap hit of $26.2 million in 2023 but will have no dead money remaining on his deal. With Taylor Heinicke also in the fold, the Commanders will have no reason to rush Willis onto the field in 2022.

Washington is in a position to afford Willis the time he needs to develop, and that's beneficial to both parties. While fans may not want to see the Commanders take a project with the 11th overall pick, Washington might not have another option. Willis will likely be off the board by the time the team is back on the clock at No. 47.

           

Contract information via Spotrac.